Head-to-head and line
Across the 2026 season we put up 220 head-to-head and line bets. Together they returned +9.1% on turnover, and the line bets did the heavy lifting.
| Season | Bets | Won | Profit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line | ||||
| 2023 | 105 | 53 | −$550 | −3.4% |
| 2024 | 107 | 64 | +$1,140 | +7.1% |
| 2025 | 117 | 60 | +$1,230 | +6.1% |
| 2026 | 123 | 70 | +$2,136 | +10.9% |
| Head-to-head | ||||
| 2023 | 98 | 44 | −$460 | −3.7% |
| 2024 | 94 | 43 | +$2,306 | +22.8% |
| 2025 | 96 | 34 | −$2,113 | −15.4% |
| 2026 | 97 | 34 | +$627 | +5.8% |
Return is profit divided by the total amount bet. Dollar figures are at Sportpunter's recommended stakes.
When you bet matters most
The clearest lesson from the last four seasons is about timing. Our models have found their biggest edge early in the year.
Head-to-head bets have been profitable up to and including Round 11, and line bets up to and including Round 15. After those points the returns drop away. Finals are a small sample: over four years they have come out about break-even, and in 2026 they were excellent.
Head-to-head
Line
Follow the round guide, and every season was a winner
Here is what happened if you only bet head-to-head up to Round 11 and line up to Round 15. Both made money in each of the last four seasons. That includes 2025, our toughest head-to-head year, where the early-season bets still finished in front.
| Season | H2H bets | H2H profit | H2H return | Line bets | Line profit | Line return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 48 | +$255 | +3.9% | 61 | +$571 | +6.5% |
| 2024 | 43 | +$1,375 | +28.0% | 68 | +$2,111 | +20.7% |
| 2025 | 47 | +$283 | +3.6% | 71 | +$886 | +7.2% |
| 2026 | 49 | +$366 | +7.4% | 72 | +$1,855 | +16.6% |
| 4 seasons | 187 | +$2,279 | +9.4% | 272 | +$5,424 | +12.8% |
Finals 2026
We won 2 of 3 head-to-head bets (+46%) and 4 of 5 line bets (+46%) through the finals, finishing with Brisbane in the Grand Final. Over four years, finals bets have been roughly break-even on a small sample, so we treat them as a bonus, not the main event.
Bigger overlays, bigger returns
An overlay is how much better the bookmaker's price is than our model says it should be. Every bet we recommend has an overlay of at least 5%. Raising that minimum made the results even stronger.
| Minimum overlay | H2H bets | H2H return | Line bets | Line return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5% (all bets) | 187 | +9.4% | 272 | +12.8% |
| 10% | 127 | +14.6% | 175 | +14.7% |
| 15% | 86 | +27.6% | 105 | +19.2% |
| 20% | 66 | +15.1% | 55 | +19.9% |
Bets inside the round guide (H2H to Round 11, line to Round 15), 2023–2026. In 2026 alone, bets at a 15%+ overlay returned +18.8% head-to-head and +18.5% on the line. Higher minimums mean fewer bets, so 10–15% is the sweet spot between return and volume.
Player props
2026 was the first full season of our player prop models, and there is a lot to be happy with. The star was disposal unders: backing a player to finish under his disposal line when our model rates the under at a 20%+ overlay.
| Period | Bets | Won | Staked | Profit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before release (Rd 11–25) | 197 | 120 (61%) | $64,184 | +$10,036 | +15.6% |
| Since public release (Rd 26 – Prelims) | 26 | 16 (62%) | $8,685 | +$1,370 | +15.8% |
| Whole season | 223 | 136 (61%) | $72,869 | +$11,405 | +15.7% |
Profit rose almost every week, and the bets with the biggest overlays did best of all (40%+ overlays won 14 of 20). No player reached the 20% overlay mark in the Grand Final, so there were no unders bets that day.
A note on these results
We kept these disposal unders tips in-house for most of the season while we tracked them, and released them publicly from Round 26, the first week of the finals. Every bet above is a live bet, logged at the time with the real Sportsbet price, not a back-test. Our live tracking started at Round 11.
Since release the results have matched the rest of the year almost exactly: +15.8% after release against +15.6% before. Our back-tests of 2023–2025, using historical prices, were also profitable every season. That is why disposal unders will be one of the main player props we focus on in 2027.
The props scoreboard
We tracked many prop markets this year. Some are ready to follow, some are close, and some we'll leave alone.
Please treat these with caution heading into 2027. These are very small sample sizes, and prop markets carry a big bookmaker margin that has to be overcome before any bet makes money. A good run over one season is encouraging, but it is not proof yet.
| Market | Bets | Return | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winners | |||
| Disposal unders (20%+ overlay) | 223 | +15.7% | Follow |
| Kicks groups (most kicks in a group) | 178 | +23.9% | Follow |
| Tackles groups (most tackles in a group) | 354 | +11.7% | Follow |
| Marks overs, big overlays only (40%+) | 688 | +7.0% | Follow |
| Close to break-even | |||
| Disposal groups (best-value pick, Kelly) | 1,147 | +1.5% | Watching |
| Most fantasy points (top overlay, Kelly) | 245 | +2.1% | Watching |
| Marks groups (best-value pick, Kelly) | 177 | +0.6% | Watching |
| Leaving on the shelf | |||
| Disposal, goal and tackle overs | 23,020 | −9.9% to −28% | Skip |
| Goals groups and head-to-head goals | 2,481 | −8.7% to −17.9% | Skip |
| Same-game multis | 244 | Mostly negative | Skip |
Group and overs figures are from our all-season tracking pages, at their listed staking. Disposal groups finished strongly, with the top-overlay pick in profit in six of the last eight rounds. "Leaving on the shelf" rows are model tracking across every line, not bets we sent out.
Our plan for 2027
Everything above points to a simple, focused approach for next season.
Head-to-head and line
- Head-to-head bets from the Opening Round to Round 11.
- Line bets from the Opening Round to Round 15.
- Finals at smaller stakes, as a bonus.
- Extra weight on bets at a 10–15%+ overlay.
Player props
- Disposal unders as our main prop, from the first round.
- Kicks and tackles groups.
- Marks overs only at big overlays.
- Disposal groups and fantasy points on watch.
Thanks for being with us in 2026. The early rounds are where our edge is biggest, so being set up from the Opening Round is the best way to get the most out of 2027.