Euro Ice Hockey analysis by league and overlay
Sportpunter’s European Ice Hockey predictions have been live on the website for now its third year, and it’s probably about time that we analysed the results. A clear look at the results as shown on the bottom right side of this this webpage, shows that head to head betting has made 4.7% ROI from over 1300 bets, has made 2.7% ROI from over 3300 bets when betting on the line/handicap, and has made a 1.5% ROI loss when betting the totals.
So pretty good results when betting on the team, but not on the overs and unders. But when we look more in depth at the results we can come to different conclusions.
‘Sportjake’ on the sportpunter forum, noticed that the totals for Finland and Russia always had an expected total of 5, and so it would seem that we will have to look at league vs league to see how well the results have been. One of the reasons why the results for these two leagues always have a total score of 5 is because of lack of data and hence predicting power for them. However I do plan on reinvestigating them now to see if we can come up with better predictions.
But let’s look at the data. Firstly head to head analysis:
As shown by the analysis below, the results for the Czech Republic seem to be the best, whilst Finland have the worst results. There is probably not a lot one can read into this as the sample sized for each league is relatively small.
| League | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria - EHL | 107 | 45 | 42% | $16,041.07 | $1,700.64 | 11% |
| Czech Republic - Extraliga | 200 | 90 | 45% | $29,823.42 | $2,450.22 | 8% |
| Finland - SM-Liiga | 122 | 35 | 29% | $14,129.13 | $(2,110.10) | -15% |
| Germany - DEL | 180 | 92 | 51% | $22,529.48 | $3,363.72 | 15% |
| Slovakia - Extraliga | 101 | 40 | 40% | $16,443.64 | $(311.23) | -2% |
| Sweden - Elitserien | 108 | 44 | 41% | $13,613.07 | $1,065.39 | 8% |
| Switzerland - Nationalliga A | 121 | 49 | 40% | $17,437.85 | $117.99 | 1% |
| United States - AHL | 10 | 8 | 80% | $843.35 | $739.09 | 88% |
| Denmark - Superisligaen | 15 | 7 | 47% | $1,490.07 | $585.22 | 39% |
| Finland - Mestis | 33 | 15 | 45% | $5,895.23 | $303.88 | 5% |
| Norway - GET-ligaen | 56 | 17 | 30% | $8,619.94 | $(1,430.96) | -17% |
| Russia - KHL | 34 | 13 | 38% | $5,631.94 | $528.05 | 9% |
| Sweden - HockeyAllsvenskan | 135 | 58 | 43% | $19,889.50 | $1,714.53 | 9% |
| Belarus - Extraliga | 67 | 25 | 37% | $8,983.85 | $(764.01) | -9% |
| United States - NHL | 18 | 10 | 56% | $5,495.85 | $744.36 | 14% |
It seems that a minimum overlay of 5% is sufficient when betting on teams as shown in the table below.
| Min.Overlay | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.1 | 439 | 196 | 45% | $37,227.57 | $1,641.47 | 4% |
| 0.1 | 0.15 | 325 | 148 | 46% | $42,743.04 | $5,301.14 | 12% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 184 | 74 | 40% | $32,843.68 | $1,388.74 | 4% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 117 | 42 | 36% | $25,357.45 | $415.37 | 2% |
| 0.25 | 0.35 | 68 | 29 | 43% | $18,592.19 | $2,418.37 | 13% |
| 0.35 | 0.5 | 23 | 7 | 30% | $7,719.33 | $(178.34) | -2% |
| 0.5 | 0.75 | 5 | 1 | 20% | $2,449.96 | $(404.40) | -17% |
| 0.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | $- | $- | ||
| 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | $- | $- | ||
| 1161 | 497 | $166,933.22 | $10,582.35 | 6.3% |
When looking at the line and handicap betting, we see similar results. With Finland being the only league to show a loss, whilst the German League DEL, is the most profitable. A minimum overlay of 5% seems sufficient
| League | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria - EHL | 304 | 143 | 47% | $48,604.38 | $1,742.79 | 4% |
| Czech Republic - Extraliga | 378 | 173 | 46% | $58,458.76 | $2,025.36 | 3% |
| Finland - SM-Liiga | 311 | 126 | 41% | $36,123.82 | $(2,506.23) | -7% |
| Germany - DEL | 347 | 180 | 52% | $45,589.00 | $6,405.56 | 14% |
| Slovakia - Extraliga | 255 | 123 | 48% | $43,478.49 | $832.40 | 2% |
| Sweden - Elitserien | 214 | 90 | 42% | $32,243.94 | $299.62 | 1% |
| Switzerland - Nationalliga A | 258 | 123 | 48% | $36,290.22 | $2,205.93 | 6% |
| United States - NHL | 11 | 7 | 64% | $1,001.69 | $44.01 | 4% |
| United States - AHL | 18 | 9 | 50% | $1,811.04 | $730.78 | 40% |
| Denmark - Superisligaen | 162 | 75 | 46% | $28,689.14 | $772.06 | 3% |
| Finland - Mestis | 141 | 61 | 43% | $19,432.62 | $(354.97) | -2% |
| Norway - GET-ligaen | 168 | 76 | 45% | $32,379.11 | $378.52 | 1% |
| Russia - KHL | 472 | 222 | 47% | $79,688.25 | $379.89 | 0% |
| Sweden - HockeyAllsvenskan | 207 | 93 | 45% | $31,629.93 | $99.35 | 0% |
| Belarus - Extraliga | 120 | 56 | 47% | $35,702.67 | $793.73 | 2% |
| Min.Overlay | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.1 | 1037 | 498 | 48% | $83,065.72 | $3,634.06 | 4% |
| 0.1 | 0.15 | 772 | 381 | 49% | $100,370.67 | $9,565.24 | 10% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 518 | 231 | 45% | $91,892.02 | $46.23 | 0% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 347 | 145 | 42% | $77,366.27 | $(1,767.16) | -2% |
| 0.25 | 0.35 | 274 | 125 | 46% | $78,996.08 | $1,930.30 | 2% |
| 0.35 | 0.5 | 114 | 48 | 42% | $44,199.78 | $(1,391.68) | -3% |
| 0.5 | 0.75 | 23 | 12 | 52% | $12,080.48 | $2,566.55 | 21% |
| 0.75 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 50% | $1,366.56 | $869.68 | 64% |
| 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | $- | $- | ||
| 3087 | 1441 | $489,337.58 | $15,453.22 | 3.2% |
In regards to totals, it is quite clear that the Russian League KHL has been losing a lot of money. Along with Finland, Denmark and Slovakia, there are several leagues that have lost a decent amount.
| League | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria - EHL | 176 | 91 | 52% | $18,920.23 | $1,668.41 | 9% |
| Czech Republic - Extraliga | 300 | 147 | 49% | $37,182.74 | $(633.21) | -2% |
| Finland - SM-Liiga | 360 | 165 | 46% | $43,868.27 | $(2,039.49) | -5% |
| Germany - DEL | 101 | 48 | 48% | $7,552.95 | $212.76 | 3% |
| Slovakia - Extraliga | 170 | 72 | 42% | $18,560.13 | $(1,248.60) | -7% |
| Sweden - Elitserien | 204 | 108 | 53% | $26,289.78 | $3,044.05 | 12% |
| Switzerland - Nationalliga A | 248 | 134 | 54% | $29,752.78 | $2,933.59 | 10% |
| United States - NHL | 10 | 5 | 50% | $1,318.08 | $164.48 | 12% |
| United States - AHL | 10 | 4 | 40% | $807.07 | $(43.67) | -5% |
| Denmark - Superisligaen | 149 | 57 | 38% | $22,993.99 | $(1,942.04) | -8% |
| Finland - Mestis | 143 | 65 | 45% | $21,586.29 | $128.61 | 1% |
| Norway - GET-ligaen | 127 | 61 | 48% | $13,930.82 | $407.73 | 3% |
| Russia - KHL | 403 | 162 | 40% | $57,320.20 | $(9,203.67) | -16% |
| Sweden - HockeyAllsvenskan | 201 | 89 | 44% | $26,915.75 | $(1,164.91) | -4% |
| Belarus - Extraliga | 131 | 62 | 47% | $29,607.89 | $2,634.61 | 9% |
Quite clearly however, there is a major problem with Russia, and with Finland having similar issues as noted in the forum above, it might be wise to analyse the totals (and perhaps h2h and line data) without these two leagues.
The following two tables show the minimum overlay with Russia and Finland, and without Russia and Finland.
| Min.Overlay | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1 | 1084 | 509 | 47% | $83,381.49 | $(2,166.16) | -3% |
| 0.1 | 0.15 | 610 | 284 | 47% | $77,613.44 | $(2,879.81) | -4% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 331 | 153 | 46% | $57,659.36 | $(1,616.34) | -3% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 173 | 78 | 45% | $37,744.14 | $(36.85) | 0% |
| 0.25 | 0.35 | 116 | 53 | 46% | $31,935.32 | $1,573.79 | 5% |
| 0.35 | 0.5 | 30 | 19 | 63% | $11,287.07 | $4,919.70 | 44% |
| 0.5 | 0.75 | 5 | 1 | 20% | $2,657.37 | $(589.12) | -22% |
| 0.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | $- | $- | ||
| 4 | 22222 | 0 | 0 | $- | $- | ||
| 2349 | 1097 | $302,278.19 | $(794.79) | -0.3% |
| Min.Overlay | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.1 | 801 | 379 | 47% | $61,211.89 | $(1,935.43) | -3% |
| 0.1 | 0.15 | 438 | 212 | 48% | $55,216.94 | $(344.18) | -1% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 250 | 121 | 48% | $43,562.04 | $474.61 | 1% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 135 | 64 | 47% | $29,514.55 | $1,410.14 | 5% |
| 0.25 | 0.35 | 93 | 48 | 52% | $25,731.20 | $3,873.31 | 15% |
| 0.35 | 0.5 | 23 | 15 | 65% | $9,100.88 | $3,799.77 | 42% |
| 0.5 | 0.75 | 5 | 1 | 20% | $2,657.37 | $(589.12) | -22% |
| 0.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | $- | $- | ||
| 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | $- | $- | ||
| 1745 | 840 | $226,994.87 | $6,689.10 | 2.9% |
It would seem that the minimum overlay to use when ignoring Russian and Finnish leagues is around 15 to 20%.
The EU Ice Hockey predictions are released every day and are free of charge. Check out the results, free predictions and betting histories here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/ice-hockey/euro/
