Euro Basketball analysis by league and overlay
Similar to the European Ice Hockey analysis that was done yesterday, it was probably a good idea to have a look at the European Basketball. So today we will look at line betting and totals betting, both of which have pulled in big profits.
Firstly line or handicap betting. As shown by the table below, Croatia, England and France Pro B seem to be the worst performing leagues although considering the small sample size, there isn’t much that one can read into this apart from random variation. Interestingly, both Austria and Germany, very similar countries, are both performing the best.
| League | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina - Liga Nacional de Bá | 86 | 48 | 56% | $15,143.73 | $2,084.54 | 14% |
| Australia - NBL | 5 | 3 | 60% | $1,494.08 | $328.47 | 22% |
| Austria - Bundesliga | 141 | 80 | 57% | $29,053.34 | $7,430.82 | 26% |
| Belgium - Ligue Ethias | 50 | 21 | 42% | $12,480.29 | $(61.31) | 0% |
| Bulgaria - NBL | 82 | 44 | 54% | $18,042.03 | $2,746.03 | 15% |
| Croatia - A1 Liga | 68 | 27 | 40% | $14,126.30 | $(3,430.57) | -24% |
| Czech Republic - NBL | 147 | 66 | 45% | $21,366.18 | $23.17 | 0% |
| Denmark - Basketligaen | 130 | 63 | 48% | $27,726.44 | $655.27 | 2% |
| England - British Basketball Le | 93 | 48 | 52% | $16,209.55 | $(2,172.67) | -13% |
| Finland - Korisliiga | 156 | 83 | 53% | $23,942.54 | $2,090.71 | 9% |
| France - LfB | 0 | 0 | $- | $- | ||
| France - LNB Pro A | 243 | 127 | 52% | $36,537.59 | $1,965.70 | 5% |
| France - LNB Pro B | 274 | 130 | 47% | $68,626.99 | $(2,273.91) | -3% |
| Germany - Basketball Bundesliga | 276 | 153 | 55% | $46,827.21 | $6,609.76 | 14% |
| Greece - A1 Ethniki | 136 | 71 | 52% | $19,346.98 | $1,246.65 | 6% |
| Israel - Ligat Haal | 82 | 48 | 59% | $12,107.93 | $2,364.84 | 20% |
| Italy - Lega A Basket | 237 | 115 | 49% | $40,083.38 | $878.66 | 2% |
| Italy - LegA Basket Femminile | 0 | 0 | $- | $- | ||
| Italy - LegADue | 119 | 55 | 46% | $20,567.45 | $1,638.69 | 8% |
| Netherlands - Dutch Basketball | 23 | 13 | 57% | $5,017.08 | $1,557.33 | 31% |
| Norway - BLNO | 0 | 0 | $- | $- | ||
| Poland - Ekstraliga | 165 | 82 | 50% | $34,592.79 | $(139.17) | 0% |
| Russia - PBL | 69 | 36 | 52% | $14,989.21 | $1,533.93 | 10% |
| Serbia - Koarkaka Liga | 128 | 71 | 55% | $28,433.39 | $1,644.41 | 6% |
| Slovenia - Liga Telemach | 26 | 10 | 38% | $4,580.26 | $(407.41) | -9% |
| Spain - ACB | 290 | 146 | 50% | $48,506.58 | $(449.24) | -1% |
| Sweden - Ligan | 131 | 63 | 48% | $24,522.90 | $(872.98) | -4% |
| Switzerland - LNA | 100 | 54 | 54% | $30,556.46 | $1,399.15 | 5% |
| Turkey - Turkiye Basketbol Ligl | 164 | 92 | 56% | $22,768.52 | $1,816.91 | 8% |
| Ukraine - Superleague | 186 | 91 | 49% | $41,744.91 | $(305.98) | -1% |
| United States - NBA | 0 | 0 | $- | $- | ||
| United States - Women NBA | 171 | 95 | 56% | $36,215.09 | $4,057.56 | 11% |
When looking at the minimum overlay, it would seem that a minimum of 20% is required to make the maximum profit at this stage of analysis as shown by the table below
| Min.Overlay | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.1 | 990 | 488 | 49% | $77,440.18 | $(1,641.37) | -2% |
| 0.1 | 0.15 | 737 | 372 | 50% | $95,271.60 | $1,161.36 | 1% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 569 | 269 | 47% | $102,827.21 | $(6,874.78) | -7% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 427 | 245 | 57% | $100,203.18 | $13,716.41 | 14% |
| 0.25 | 0.35 | 433 | 231 | 53% | $132,841.25 | $7,006.39 | 5% |
| 0.35 | 0.5 | 247 | 140 | 57% | $106,882.28 | $13,268.09 | 12% |
| 0.5 | 0.75 | 70 | 39 | 56% | $41,456.54 | $5,534.83 | 13% |
| 0.75 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 33% | $2,665.24 | $(783.02) | -29% |
| 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | $- | $- | ||
| 3476 | 1785 | $659,587.48 | $31,387.91 | 4.8% |
Going onto totals, the results are truly fantastic, with really only Turkey, Ukraine and Russia showing negative results. Interesting once again that these three leagues are all in Eastern Europe. Either my model is not handling Eastern European basketball that well, or perhaps there is more seedy behind closed doors deals going on! More than likely however it is just due to a small sample size and random variation, and therefore there is no reason why one would not bet these leagues.
| League | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina - Liga Nacional de Bá | 104 | 56 | 54% | $23,235.03 | $1,583.46 | 7% |
| Australia - NBL | 6 | 4 | 67% | $1,275.05 | $519.38 | 41% |
| Austria - Bundesliga | 162 | 87 | 54% | $30,002.40 | $1,213.91 | 4% |
| Belgium - Ligue Ethias | 38 | 25 | 66% | $6,115.87 | $1,748.63 | 29% |
| Bulgaria - NBL | 71 | 39 | 55% | $10,770.30 | $1,923.08 | 18% |
| Croatia - A1 Liga | 65 | 35 | 54% | $16,255.33 | $1,336.67 | 8% |
| Czech Republic - NBL | 179 | 90 | 50% | $30,885.39 | $738.64 | 2% |
| Denmark - Basketligaen | 122 | 64 | 52% | $23,772.95 | $668.34 | 3% |
| England - British Basketball Le | 110 | 62 | 56% | $22,430.75 | $3,935.73 | 18% |
| Finland - Korisliiga | 183 | 101 | 55% | $31,734.64 | $2,527.08 | 8% |
| France - LfB | 4 | 1 | 25% | $1,439.19 | $199.20 | 14% |
| France - LNB Pro A | 290 | 154 | 53% | $49,487.17 | $267.06 | 1% |
| France - LNB Pro B | 305 | 159 | 52% | $102,644.93 | $5,835.13 | 6% |
| Germany - Basketball Bundesliga | 284 | 148 | 52% | $47,029.91 | $1,027.82 | 2% |
| Greece - A1 Ethniki | 141 | 79 | 56% | $19,185.25 | $3,940.41 | 21% |
| Israel - Ligat Haal | 92 | 54 | 59% | $17,696.31 | $1,684.45 | 10% |
| Italy - Lega A Basket | 266 | 140 | 53% | $47,104.03 | $3,379.21 | 7% |
| Italy - LegA Basket Femminile | 5 | 5 | 100% | $906.96 | $860.68 | 95% |
| Italy - LegADue | 134 | 80 | 60% | $25,229.48 | $5,683.90 | 23% |
| Netherlands - Dutch Basketball | 22 | 9 | 41% | $3,182.13 | $(458.24) | -14% |
| Norway - BLNO | 2 | 1 | 50% | $369.44 | $(53.96) | -15% |
| Poland - Ekstraliga | 165 | 81 | 49% | $27,533.27 | $909.37 | 3% |
| Russia - PBL | 71 | 33 | 46% | $15,172.45 | $(1,342.43) | -9% |
| Serbia - Koarkaka Liga | 110 | 58 | 53% | $17,105.39 | $906.20 | 5% |
| Slovenia - Liga Telemach | 40 | 22 | 55% | $9,157.10 | $942.60 | 10% |
| Spain - ACB | 269 | 144 | 54% | $40,577.51 | $4,649.22 | 11% |
| Sweden - Ligan | 170 | 98 | 58% | $31,736.90 | $6,025.00 | 19% |
| Switzerland - LNA | 101 | 53 | 52% | $28,358.53 | $1,383.35 | 5% |
| Turkey - Turkiye Basketbol Ligl | 195 | 97 | 50% | $36,827.33 | $(2,179.15) | -6% |
| Ukraine - Superleague | 151 | 69 | 46% | $22,191.08 | $(1,098.55) | -5% |
| United States - NBA | 4 | 3 | 75% | $792.04 | $402.30 | 51% |
| United States - Women NBA | 161 | 85 | 53% | $33,231.40 | $849.69 | 3% |
It also seems that a minimum overlay of 5% is sufficient with higher overlays producing higher profits. This is in line with what a good model should produce.
| Min.Overlay | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.05 | 0.1 | 1009 | 525 | 52% | $77,925.13 | $1,937.02 | 2% |
| 0.1 | 0.15 | 821 | 430 | 52% | $106,248.18 | $4,178.79 | 4% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 622 | 320 | 51% | $112,986.30 | $2,041.58 | 2% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 441 | 233 | 53% | $103,376.43 | $3,927.46 | 4% |
| 0.25 | 0.35 | 462 | 252 | 55% | $141,770.12 | $11,141.37 | 8% |
| 0.35 | 0.5 | 242 | 130 | 54% | $103,609.68 | $7,488.12 | 7% |
| 0.5 | 0.75 | 82 | 48 | 59% | $50,411.99 | $10,050.52 | 20% |
| 0.75 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 62% | $11,035.68 | $2,280.57 | 21% |
| 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | $- | $- | ||
| 3692 | 1946 | $707,363.51 | $43,045.43 | 6.1% |
The predictions for European Basketball are available free online and are updated every day. Check this webpage for more information: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/euro/
