More ATP analysis – Favourites by Overlays
Previously we talked about how the new upgraded ATP model did based on certain probabilities and overlays. This analysis is shown here.
Today we shall show you how the ATP model goes for favourites based on overlay. Shown below are tables, each one for when a bet is suggested for certain probabilities. We can have a look at the overlays of these occurrences and judge based on this, what minimum overlay we should be using.
What is shown is that quite clearly, the model does very well when it has a player as a favourite. From the 4383 bets, it has made 5.7% ROI. What is equally good, is that there seems to be no minimum overlay, and hence, the 5% minimum that is usually used at Sportpunter will still apply.
So in theory, for all favourites as determined by Sportpunter, bet with a minimum of 5% overlay.
Overlay Prob 0.5-0.6 #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 318 185 58.2% $24,668.78 $3,489.91 14.1%
0.1 0.15 240 123 51.3% $28,433.10 $1,119.19 3.9%
0.15 0.2 186 100 53.8% $28,269.73 $4,090.53 14.5%
0.2 0.25 170 82 48.2% $30,415.72 $2,296.54 7.6%
0.25 0.35 208 87 41.8% $44,453.79 $266.08 0.6%
0.35 0.5 144 59 41.0% $37,467.71 $2,260.91 6.0%
0.5 0.6 46 19 41.3% $13,954.90 $2,408.58 17.3%
0.6 0.75 34 11 32.4% $11,132.50 -$97.82 -0.9%
0.75 1 21 10 47.6% $7,486.97 $4,427.64 59.1%
1 4 10 1 10.0% $4,164.50 -$2,660.46 -63.9%
TOTAL 1377 677 49.2% $230,447.70 $17,601.11 7.6%
Overlay Prob 0.6-0.7 #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 418 266 63.6% $47,485.80 $2,042.82 4.3%
0.1 0.15 265 166 62.6% $44,497.87 $3,112.06 7.0%
0.15 0.2 133 79 59.4% $29,197.94 $2,034.15 7.0%
0.2 0.25 99 54 54.5% $25,190.69 $622.15 2.5%
0.25 0.35 91 44 48.4% $26,448.90 -$493.63 -1.9%
0.35 0.5 80 39 48.8% $27,576.78 $2,132.60 7.7%
0.5 0.6 21 9 42.9% $8,251.63 $161.33 2.0%
0.6 0.75 17 6 35.3% $7,235.12 -$548.22 -7.6%
0.75 1 7 4 57.1% $3,245.68 $2,043.34 63.0%
1 4 6 1 16.7% $3,042.28 -$1,362.86 -44.8%
TOTAL 1137 668 58.8% $222,172.69 $9,743.75 4.4%
Overlay Prob 0.7-0.8 #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 378 275 72.8% $65,235.40 $2,242.65 3.4%
0.1 0.15 236 165 69.9% $59,060.55 $3,468.46 5.9%
0.15 0.2 115 83 72.2% $34,649.50 $4,977.26 14.4%
0.2 0.25 71 43 60.6% $25,337.36 -$652.73 -2.6%
0.25 0.35 55 34 61.8% $22,489.73 $1,360.70 6.1%
0.35 0.5 30 17 56.7% $13,680.08 $1,117.06 8.2%
0.5 0.6 8 5 62.5% $3,802.64 $1,254.17 33.0%
0.6 0.75 7 5 71.4% $3,896.64 $2,220.04 57.0%
0.75 1 5 4 80.0% $2,745.06 $2,752.61 100.3%
1 4 1 0 0.0% $644.69 -$644.69 -100.0%
TOTAL 906 631 69.6% $231,541.65 $18,095.53 7.8%
Overlay Prob 0.8-0.9 #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 303 253 83.5% $84,348.14 $5,067.13 6.0%
0.1 0.15 184 149 81.0% $69,646.29 $4,961.56 7.1%
0.15 0.2 84 58 69.0% $37,497.69 -$1,968.40 -5.2%
0.2 0.25 51 40 78.4% $25,307.02 $3,376.75 13.3%
0.25 0.35 38 23 60.5% $20,620.05 -$1,763.12 -8.6%
0.35 0.5 15 9 60.0% $9,437.95 -$27.99 -0.3%
0.5 0.6 3 2 66.7% $2,090.27 $396.51 19.0%
0.6 0.75 1 1 100.0% $735.97 $684.45 93.0%
0.75 1 2 1 50.0% $1,286.90 $115.44 9.0%
TOTAL 681 536 78.7% $250,970.27 $10,842.32 4.3%
Overlay Prob 0.9-1 #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 174 162 93.1% $87,158.11 $5,649.52 6.5%
0.1 0.15 60 47 78.3% $37,442.73 -$2,264.83 -6.0%
0.15 0.2 20 16 80.0% $13,511.50 $165.01 1.2%
0.2 0.25 12 10 83.3% $8,583.08 $936.16 10.9%
0.25 0.35 12 11 91.7% $8,815.22 $2,426.65 27.5%
0.35 0.5 3 1 33.3% $2,376.79 -$1,240.97 -52.2%
0.5 0.6 1 1 100.0% $789.02 $520.75 66.0%
TOTAL 282 248 87.9% $158,676.45 $6,192.29 3.9%
