Soccer minimum overlays based on League Level

Previously we talked about not quite getting as good 1×2 profits betting on the more popular and more professional leagues. We did manage to win evenly across the board betting totals which is a great result. However more analysis is obviously required in the head to head betting.

So based on the groups given previously, I decided to have a look at the results for minimum overlay per group. The results are shown below.

Group1	Overlay	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	362	131	36%	$20,025.60	-$1,505.48	-8%
0.075	0.1	262	87	33%	$16,879.89	-$1,171.55	-7%
0.1	0.15	414	160	39%	$33,632.34	$4,830.59	14%
0.15	0.2	327	96	29%	$29,896.26	-$1,583.59	-5%
0.2	0.3	363	84	23%	$34,331.27	-$2,735.62	-8%
0.3	0.4	215	47	22%	$23,853.78	-$588.40	-2%
0.4	0.5	87	20	23%	$10,847.67	$1,905.38	18%
0.5	0.75	110	19	17%	$13,712.50	$531.87	4%
0.75	1	20	2	10%	$2,210.05	$130.57	6%
1	100	20	5	25%	$4,972.18	$2,626.52	53%
	TOTAL	2180	651	30%	$190,361.54	$2,440.29	1%
Group2	Overlay	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	551	221	40%	$26,540.52	$1,808.68	7%
0.075	0.1	507	175	35%	$34,488.99	-$3,426.25	-10%
0.1	0.15	761	276	36%	$60,773.20	$1,773.69	3%
0.15	0.2	566	183	32%	$57,773.94	-$3,205.87	-6%
0.2	0.3	680	213	31%	$79,741.21	$4,806.14	6%
0.3	0.4	357	101	28%	$48,845.36	$3,684.38	8%
0.4	0.5	190	40	21%	$24,537.20	$655.88	3%
0.5	0.75	206	45	22%	$30,295.73	$4,930.67	16%
0.75	1	62	10	16%	$11,145.95	$103.31	1%
1	100	29	3	10%	$6,268.86	-$1,803.84	-29%
	TOTAL	3909	1267	32%	$380,410.96	$9,326.79	2%
Group3	Overlay	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	384	154	40%	$19,716.13	$513.56	3%
0.075	0.1	325	112	34%	$20,526.14	-$1,290.43	-6%
0.1	0.15	572	219	38%	$45,593.43	$4,727.70	10%
0.15	0.2	410	134	33%	$36,638.91	$1,691.69	5%
0.2	0.3	548	163	30%	$63,141.87	-$91.89	0%
0.3	0.4	306	83	27%	$38,859.15	$3,976.34	10%
0.4	0.5	167	34	20%	$20,385.67	-$167.40	-1%
0.5	0.75	242	48	20%	$34,355.20	$3,459.68	10%
0.75	1	70	12	17%	$11,884.29	$936.36	8%
1	100	71	11	15%	$18,521.98	-$544.00	-3%
	TOTAL	3095	970	31%	$309,622.77	$13,211.61	4%
Group4	Overlay	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	164	71	43%	$10,573.62	$153.16	1%
0.075	0.1	131	60	46%	$12,342.20	$1,174.19	10%
0.1	0.15	185	73	39%	$16,958.98	$1,820.18	11%
0.15	0.2	188	64	34%	$19,984.33	$66.11	0%
0.2	0.3	170	56	33%	$19,765.21	$1,864.14	9%
0.3	0.4	129	35	27%	$18,563.02	-$1,007.34	-5%
0.4	0.5	61	15	25%	$8,423.87	$620.88	7%
0.5	0.75	80	25	31%	$11,366.80	$7,025.83	62%
0.75	1	28	8	29%	$4,337.63	$3,926.09	91%
1	100	8	3	38%	$2,222.97	$2,715.78	122%
	TOTAL	1144	410	36%	$124,538.63	$18,359.02	15%
Group5	Overlay	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	33	20	61%	$3,508.14	$875.70	25%
0.075	0.1	41	21	51%	$4,909.99	$310.69	6%
0.1	0.15	45	21	47%	$4,564.12	$674.86	15%
0.15	0.2	49	22	45%	$6,995.75	$928.38	13%
0.2	0.3	42	12	29%	$5,915.61	$366.46	6%
0.3	0.4	39	7	18%	$6,557.69	-$2,116.38	-32%
0.4	0.5	26	13	50%	$5,617.73	$3,852.19	69%
0.5	0.75	31	9	29%	$7,602.22	$845.45	11%
0.75	1	15	5	33%	$4,154.20	$2,367.06	57%
1	100	7	3	43%	$2,749.91	$2,746.29	100%
	TOTAL	328	133	41%	$52,575.36	$10,850.70	21%

The table above is quite interesting. It still shows the same pattern that more money is made on less favourable leagues, but also suggests that different minimum overlays should be used for different leagues.

In group1, a minimum overlay of 40% is optimal. All bets below this amount lost 1.7% ROI. For group 2, a minimum overlay of 20% is optimal, whilst group3 has a minimum overlay of 10% being the best option. The smaller leagues of group4 and group5 show 5%, which is the standard, as being the best minimum overlay.

So perhaps we should adjust for the professionalism and popularity of the league when betting on the head?

Also interesting to analyse is the optimal Kelly amount.

In total we have an expected ROI of 23.7%. This is basically the average of all the overlays. In reality however the record shows that we have only made 5.1% ROI. Hence the optimal Kelly fractional is 23.7 / 5.1 = 4.6, which is quite high.

But looking at different leagues we get different results. For Group1, the expected ROI is 21.4% with the actual win% being at 1.3%. This means an optimal Kelly fractional of 16.7

Group2 has an expected ROI% of 22.2% compared to an actual %ROI of 2.5% and an optimal Kelly fractional of 9.0

Group3has an expected ROI% of 26.6% compared to an actual %ROI of 4.3% and an optimal Kelly fractional of 6.2

Group4 has an expected ROI% of 23.8% compared to an actual %ROI of 14.7% and an optimal Kelly fractional of 1.6

Group5 has an expected ROI% of 29.6% compared to an actual %ROI of 20.6% and an optimal Kelly fractional of 1.4

So we have optimal kelly fractionals ranging from 16.7 down to 1.4 compared to the different leagues. I wouldn’t recommend betting anywhere near 1.4 kelly for Group5, however the 16.7, 9 and 6.3 kelly fractionals are all reasonable.

Considering the minimum overlay recommendations for Groups 1 to 3, we can work out the optimal kelly fractional given these minimum overlays for these groups.

For group 1 and minimum 40% overlay, our expected ROI increases up to 63.4% ROI. Our actual ROI was at 16.4%, which means our optimal kelly fractional to be 3.9

For group 2 and minimum 20% overlay, our expected ROI increases up to 39.1% ROI. Our actual ROI was at 6.2%, which means our optimal kelly fractional to be 6.3

For group 3 and minimum 10% overlay, our expected ROI increases up to 32.4% ROI. Our actual ROI was at 5.2%, which means our optimal kelly fractional to be 6.2

So we dont have to bet at high kelly fractionals to get good results. Note that for Group1, there is a limited number of matches that have overlays greater than 40% – only 237. So accross the board, it would seem that a kelly fractional of around 6 would be most ideal. One could change this based on the type of group, and of course based on the bank balance and one’s sense of risk.

If you dont understand any of the above, don’t stress, but a slight understanding will start you on the way to be a better gambler.

We’ll look into the above for totals next.

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