NRL Model Analysis
NRL betting has got off to a good start, thanks to Manly getting up at 3.77,
here’s an analysis of the model:
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Prob #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.2 22 3 13.6% $867.49 $332.36 38.3%
0.2 0.3 122 27 22.1% $9,597.37 $898.42 9.4%
0.3 0.4 242 72 29.8% $26,368.45 $8,620.20 32.7%
0.4 0.5 383 147 38.4% $51,333.72 $9,164.64 17.9%
0.5 0.6 261 107 41.0% $47,838.49 -$5,022.92 -10.5%
0.6 0.7 132 67 50.8% $29,086.76 -$2,830.09 -9.7%
0.7 0.8 56 36 64.3% $16,182.56 $2,043.48 12.6%
0.8 1 21 12 57.1% $9,053.09 -$1,025.04 -11.3%
TOTAL 1239 471 38.0% $190,327.92 $12,181.06 6.4%
Odds #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
1 1.2 3 3 100.0% $1,786.28 $272.24 15.2%
1.2 1.4 15 10 66.7% $4,330.93 -$161.75 -3.7%
1.4 1.6 37 25 67.6% $8,415.76 -$295.73 -3.5%
1.6 1.8 68 35 51.5% $13,373.83 -$3,871.09 -28.9%
1.8 2 98 52 53.1% $16,042.58 $134.20 0.8%
2 2.5 248 105 42.3% $39,243.61 -$1.95 0.0%
2.5 3 308 115 37.3% $44,412.42 $1,188.48 2.7%
3 500 462 126 27.3% $62,722.52 $14,916.66 23.8%
TOTAL 1239 471 38.0% $190,327.92 $12,181.06 6.4%
Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 235 105 44.7% $19,437.49 $44.17 0.2%
0.1 0.2 357 151 42.3% $43,020.19 -$645.09 -1.5%
0.2 0.3 233 84 36.1% $35,131.41 -$1,293.81 -3.7%
0.3 0.4 130 43 33.1% $24,420.98 -$1,524.04 -6.2%
0.4 0.5 101 33 32.7% $21,179.11 $383.38 1.8%
0.5 0.6 62 18 29.0% $14,352.58 -$199.45 -1.4%
0.6 1 74 22 29.7% $19,143.15 $4,146.06 21.7%
1 500 47 15 31.9% $13,643.01 $11,269.84 82.6%
TOTAL 1239 471 38.0% $190,327.92 $12,181.06 6.4%
Home
Prob #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.2 2 0 0.0% $55.64 -$55.64 -100.0%
0.2 0.3 20 6 30.0% $1,442.73 $349.55 24.2%
0.3 0.4 57 17 29.8% $6,390.00 $382.76 6.0%
0.4 0.5 127 63 49.6% $16,048.84 $7,170.37 44.7%
0.5 0.6 127 52 40.9% $23,222.42 -$4,133.22 -17.8%
0.6 0.7 90 52 57.8% $19,646.02 $938.90 4.8%
0.7 0.8 37 23 62.2% $10,371.37 -$393.92 -3.8%
0.8 1 14 8 57.1% $5,178.72 -$1,039.82 -20.1%
TOTAL 474 221 46.6% $82,355.73 $3,218.97 3.9%
Odds #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
1 1.2 2 2 100.0% $1,237.72 $173.50 14.0%
1.2 1.4 12 7 58.3% $3,426.61 -$400.60 -11.7%
1.4 1.6 27 18 66.7% $5,949.01 -$75.81 -1.3%
1.6 1.8 47 27 57.4% $8,666.31 -$1,116.28 -12.9%
1.8 2 55 31 56.4% $9,920.17 $988.24 10.0%
2 2.5 124 57 46.0% $21,597.78 $764.20 3.5%
2.5 3 111 51 45.9% $16,887.13 $2,792.08 16.5%
3 500 96 28 29.2% $14,671.00 $93.64 0.6%
TOTAL 474 221 46.6% $82,355.73 $3,218.97 3.9%
Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 100 50 50.0% $10,548.51 -$306.22 -2.9%
0.1 0.2 153 81 52.9% $22,379.53 $1,694.53 7.6%
0.2 0.3 82 40 48.8% $14,761.85 $2,113.08 14.3%
0.3 0.4 53 23 43.4% $11,748.33 $613.89 5.2%
0.4 0.5 35 14 40.0% $8,367.51 $1,568.84 18.7%
0.5 0.6 22 9 40.9% $6,047.36 $1,671.31 27.6%
0.6 1 20 1 5.0% $5,914.82 -$5,034.76 -85.1%
1 500 8 2 25.0% $2,400.34 $598.30 24.9%
TOTAL 473 220 46.5% $82,168.23 $2,918.97 3.6%
Away
Prob #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.2 20 3 15.0% $811.84 $388.00 47.8%
0.2 0.3 102 21 20.6% $8,154.64 $548.87 6.7%
0.3 0.4 185 55 29.7% $19,978.45 $8,237.44 41.2%
0.4 0.5 256 84 32.8% $35,284.88 $1,994.27 5.7%
0.5 0.6 134 55 41.0% $24,616.07 -$889.70 -3.6%
0.6 0.7 42 15 35.7% $9,440.75 -$3,768.99 -39.9%
0.7 0.8 19 13 68.4% $5,811.19 $2,437.41 41.9%
0.8 1 7 4 57.1% $3,874.37 $14.79 0.4%
TOTAL 765 250 32.7% $107,972.19 $8,962.09 8.3%
Odds #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
1 1.2 1 1 100.0% $548.56 $98.74 18.0%
1.2 1.4 3 3 100.0% $904.32 $238.85 26.4%
1.4 1.6 10 7 70.0% $2,466.74 -$219.91 -8.9%
1.6 1.8 21 8 38.1% $4,707.53 -$2,754.82 -58.5%
1.8 2 43 21 48.8% $6,122.41 -$854.04 -13.9%
2 2.5 124 48 38.7% $17,645.83 -$766.15 -4.3%
2.5 3 197 64 32.5% $27,525.28 -$1,603.60 -5.8%
3 500 366 98 26.8% $48,051.52 $14,823.02 30.8%
TOTAL 765 250 32.7% $107,972.19 $8,962.09 8.3%
Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 135 55 40.7% $8,888.99 $350.39 3.9%
0.1 0.2 204 70 34.3% $20,640.66 -$2,339.63 -11.3%
0.2 0.3 151 44 29.1% $20,369.57 -$3,406.89 -16.7%
0.3 0.4 77 20 26.0% $12,672.65 -$2,137.92 -16.9%
0.4 0.5 66 19 28.8% $12,811.61 -$1,185.46 -9.3%
0.5 0.6 40 9 22.5% $8,305.23 -$1,870.77 -22.5%
0.6 1 54 21 38.9% $13,228.33 $9,180.82 69.4%
1 500 47 15 31.9% $13,643.01 $11,269.84 82.6%
How many seasons does this cover?
The results pages show 8 seasons and 892 h2h bets but this analysis has 1239 bets?
Actually, on closer examination of the history I find it doesn’t add up. I had deducted the current season’s 8 bets from the 900 total but if I add the 9 completed seasons I get 1192 !