Soccer totals analysis

Since going live on the 14/09/09 we have made 2482 bets on totals for a very small 0.2% ROI profit – basically break even. This therefore is a great reason to have a look at where the sportpunter totals model has gone good and where is has gone bad. The analysis of these bets is shown below:

	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
Over	1041	487	47%	$130,107.14	$304.49	0%
Under	1441	689	48%	$197,187.04	$279.84	0%
TOTAL	2482	1176	47%	$327,294.18	$584.33	0%
	Odds	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
1	1.8	147	79	54%	$24,379.68	-$1,369.46	-6%
1.8	1.85	189	112	59%	$25,703.81	$3,588.02	14%
1.85	1.9	322	149	46%	$44,835.19	-$2,324.64	-5%
1.9	1.95	384	183	48%	$52,219.54	$16.53	0%
1.95	2	353	171	48%	$44,853.77	$24.63	0%
2	2.05	363	164	45%	$49,265.87	-$1,987.09	-4%
2.05	2.1	288	131	45%	$35,386.91	-$828.94	-2%
2.1	2.15	200	75	38%	$24,255.25	-$3,687.20	-15%
2.15	2.2	85	47	55%	$10,708.99	$3,352.38	31%
2.2	100	151	65	43%	$15,685.17	$3,800.10	24%
	TOTAL	2482	1176	47%	$327,294.18	$584.33	0%
Over	Odds	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
1	1.8	33	19	58%	$6,503.67	-$556.57	-9%
1.8	1.85	36	18	50%	$4,914.23	-$255.14	-5%
1.85	1.9	100	43	43%	$13,181.89	-$1,409.46	-11%
1.9	1.95	153	78	51%	$19,459.60	$1,995.70	10%
1.95	2	139	68	49%	$17,322.86	$564.77	3%
2	2.05	172	84	49%	$22,433.94	$503.33	2%
2.05	2.1	158	68	43%	$19,545.99	-$1,249.42	-6%
2.1	2.15	130	48	37%	$14,657.53	-$2,933.88	-20%
2.15	2.2	53	27	51%	$5,829.35	$977.22	17%
2.2	100	67	34	51%	$6,258.08	$2,667.94	43%
	TOTAL	1041	487	47%	$130,107.14	$304.49	0%
Under	Odds	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
1	1.8	114	60	53%	$17,876.01	-$812.89	-5%
1.8	1.85	153	94	61%	$20,789.58	$3,843.16	18%
1.85	1.9	222	106	48%	$31,653.30	-$915.18	-3%
1.9	1.95	231	105	45%	$32,759.94	-$1,979.17	-6%
1.95	2	214	103	48%	$27,530.91	-$540.14	-2%
2	2.05	191	80	42%	$26,831.93	-$2,490.42	-9%
2.05	2.1	130	63	48%	$15,840.92	$420.48	3%
2.1	2.15	70	27	39%	$9,597.72	-$753.32	-8%
2.15	2.2	32	20	63%	$4,879.64	$2,375.16	49%
2.2	100	84	31	37%	$9,427.09	$1,132.16	12%
	TOTAL	1441	689	48%	$197,187.04	$279.84	0%
	Overlay	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	589	290	49%	$38,938.52	-$201.92	-1%
0.075	0.1	466	226	48%	$42,670.36	$226.65	1%
0.1	0.125	406	182	45%	$48,350.67	-$2,677.48	-6%
0.125	0.15	296	139	47%	$41,922.61	$193.09	0%
0.15	0.175	223	92	41%	$37,678.03	-$4,454.93	-12%
0.175	0.2	168	87	52%	$31,992.66	$2,469.46	8%
0.2	0.225	90	48	53%	$19,131.13	$3,428.33	18%
0.225	0.25	68	34	50%	$16,300.20	$1,017.18	6%
0.25	0.3	102	47	46%	$26,662.57	$849.10	3%
0.3	100	74	31	42%	$23,647.43	-$265.15	-1%
	TOTAL	2482	1176	47%	$327,294.18	$584.33	0%
Over	Overlay	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	263	132	50%	$17,091.95	$1,093.67	6%
0.075	0.1	198	93	47%	$17,655.06	$364.37	2%
0.1	0.125	173	73	42%	$19,694.67	-$1,155.09	-6%
0.125	0.15	125	55	44%	$17,048.09	-$522.82	-3%
0.15	0.175	93	47	51%	$15,217.68	$1,359.81	9%
0.175	0.2	67	31	46%	$12,682.85	-$355.99	-3%
0.2	0.225	37	24	65%	$7,434.07	$2,719.71	37%
0.225	0.25	23	8	35%	$5,279.17	-$923.40	-17%
0.25	0.3	34	13	38%	$8,861.82	-$1,046.52	-12%
0.3	100	28	11	39%	$9,141.78	-$1,229.25	-13%
	TOTAL	1041	487	47%	$130,107.14	$304.49	0%
Under	Overlay	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	326	158	48%	$21,846.57	-$1,295.59	-6%
0.075	0.1	268	133	50%	$25,015.30	-$137.72	-1%
0.1	0.125	233	109	47%	$28,656.00	-$1,522.39	-5%
0.125	0.15	171	84	49%	$24,874.52	$715.91	3%
0.15	0.175	130	45	35%	$22,460.35	-$5,814.74	-26%
0.175	0.2	101	56	55%	$19,309.81	$2,825.45	15%
0.2	0.225	53	24	45%	$11,697.06	$708.62	6%
0.225	0.25	45	26	58%	$11,021.03	$1,940.58	18%
0.25	0.3	68	34	50%	$17,800.75	$1,895.62	11%
0.3	100	46	20	43%	$14,505.65	$964.10	7%
	TOTAL	1441	689	48%	$197,187.04	$279.84	0%
	Line	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
	1.75	0	0		$-	$-
	2	111	48	43%	$13,200.38	$1,367.00	10%
	2.25	612	296	48%	$73,731.61	$492.66	1%
	2.5	1034	514	50%	$129,769.15	-$3,742.81	-3%
	2.75	337	157	47%	$49,293.82	-$551.79	-1%
	3	248	91	37%	$41,043.70	$1,060.73	3%
	3.25	67	39	58%	$10,664.44	$812.16	8%
	3.5	37	20	54%	$5,225.53	$1,874.34	36%
	3.75	2	1	50%	$233.88	-$61.78	-26%
	4	0	0		$-	$-
	TOTAL	2448	1166	48%	$323,162.51	$1,250.51	0%
Over	Line	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
	1.75	0	0		$-	$-
	2	68	30	44%	$7,681.70	$711.01	9%
	2.25	437	204	47%	$53,523.91	$2,045.61	4%
	2.5	379	187	49%	$48,014.00	-$1,715.29	-4%
	2.75	59	24	41%	$7,309.10	-$1,545.17	-21%
	3	52	14	27%	$7,428.93	-$982.98	-13%
	3.25	16	12	75%	$2,200.17	$625.06	28%
	3.5	21	11	52%	$1,853.53	$1,660.58	90%
	3.75	2	1	50%	$233.88	-$61.78	-26%
	4	0	0		$-	$-
	TOTAL	1034	483	47%	$128,245.22	$737.04	1%
Under	Line	#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
	1.75	0	0		$-	$-
	2	43	18	42%	$5,518.68	$655.99	12%
	2.25	175	92	53%	$20,207.70	-$1,552.95	-8%
	2.5	655	327	50%	$81,755.15	-$2,027.52	-2%
	2.75	278	133	48%	$41,984.72	$993.38	2%
	3	196	77	39%	$33,614.77	$2,043.71	6%
	3.25	51	27	53%	$8,464.27	$187.10	2%
	3.5	16	9	56%	$3,372.00	$213.76	6%
	3.75	0	0		$-	$-
	4	0	0		$-	$-
	TOTAL	1414	683	48%	$194,917.29	$513.47	0%

From the first table it shows that overs and unders have been equally profitable or maybe equally level. There doesn’t seem to be any major pattern with reference to better odds to bet. Perhaps a case can be made for betting with larger odds ( > 2.15), however the small sample size and the face that betting at odds of 2.10 to 2.15 negates this argument.

Having a greater minimum overlay definetly helps here. With a minimum 17.5% overlay, 500 bets were made for a profit of 6.4% ROI, and with a minimum 20% overlay 334 bets were made for a 5.9% ROI profit.

Interestingly, and maybe quite expected, most of these profits were made betting unders than overs. It has been the case in many sports, especially for example, baseball or ice hockey, that overs are bet more than unders and hence a bias occurs in the odds. It will be interesting, and we will look at it, to see if such a bias occurs here.

Overs with a minimum 17.5% and 20% overlays resulted in a -1.9% ROI and -1.6% ROI respectively, whilst Unders with the same overlays resulted in a 11.2% a and 10% ROI respectively.

Keeping in mind that the above unders bets were only 313 bets for 17.5%,  and 212 bets for 20% minimum overlays. Hence about 10% of the original number of bets.

Whilst restricting yourself to only 10% of the suggested bets might mean a leaner betting season, it could mean greater profits over the long term. The small sample size is something also to keep into account.

I wouldn’t completely change your betting strategy just yet. An analysis of the potential bias, and perhaps the bias in the greater or smaller leagues, would be well worth looking at first, which we will do.

Also interesting is the lines. Overs are profitable at 2.25 line’s and below. (505 bets at 4.5% ROI), whilst unders are profitable at the line of 2.75 and above (541 bets at 3.9% ROI).

Clearly to me this shows the market overcompensating for recent matches. I’ve seen this happen a lot in other under/over markets like baskeball and ice hockey, and it seems to be happening here. It could be just one high or low scoring match that makes the punters get on board, and the odds are moved to much in one direction for just the one match. This over compensation, gives us a good edge, and we will look at the bias in this in more detail in the future as well.

In conclusion, it would be great if overall the totals model recorded slightly better results, but perhaps restricting yourself to higher overlay under bets, as well as perhaps over bets at smaller lines, then one can obtain a greater profit.

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