European Ice Hockey Model Analysis
The season for European Ice Hockey has finished, and what a great first season of betting at Sportpunter it has been. Head to head betting made 10% ROI, line betting 9% and totals 9% ROI since we started giving predictions in December. Whilst there hasn’t been a plethora of bets in each category (h2h: 208, line: 450, totals: 318), the consistent profits still stand for themselves.
But despite the low number of bets, it has definitely been a very profitable period, and there’s no excuse not to do an analysis of it, as it might come up with some interesting results; which as we shall see below, it does.
Firstly h2h betting:
Shown below is our tables of how we went, broken up into betting Home/Away, minimum overlay amount and betting per league.
Clearly we are betting on more home teams than away teams which is generally a good thing. But more pleasing is the fact that as the overlay increases, so does the percent return, which considering that the sample size is quite low, is good to see. It’s hard to break up which leagues are doing better than others because of the low sample size, but I’ve put that in there as well.
#Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
Home 187 83 44% $23,731.26 $2,389.53 10%
Away 21 6 29% $1,929.71 $78.78 4%
Total 208 89 43% $25,660.97 $2,468.31 10%
Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0.05 0.075 42 18 43% $3,042.80 $97.08 3%
0.075 0.1 51 22 43% $5,086.41 $233.38 5%
0.1 0.15 66 27 41% $8,232.84 $465.77 6%
0.15 0.2 30 16 53% $5,379.72 $1,441.83 27%
0.2 0.4 19 6 32% $3,919.20 $230.25 6%
208 89 43% $25,660.97 $2,468.31 10%
League #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
Austria - EHL 20 7 35% $2,568.18 -$259.60 -10%
Czech Republic - Extraliga 26 15 58% $3,758.74 $1,084.61 29%
Finland - SM-Liiga 21 3 14% $2,040.80 -$583.17 -29%
Germany - DEL 54 27 50% $6,417.17 $972.55 15%
Slovakia - Extraliga 16 4 25% $1,951.29 -$332.75 -17%
Sweden - Elitserien 37 19 51% $4,469.13 $1,528.98 34%
Switzerland - Nationalliga A 26 10 38% $3,602.11 -$318.11 -9%
United States - AHL 8 4 50% $853.55 $375.80 44%
United States - NHL 0 0 $- $-
208 89 43% 25660.97 2468.31 10%
With more bets on line betting, the results seem even more consistent. Three quarters of the bets are once again on the home team, but both seem to be equally profitable. When the line is negative, positive or zero, we seem to profit equally around the 9% mark, which is indeed very pleasing. Profits were not made when the overlay was greater than 20%, however with only 49 bets ni this category, it is not something that I would look too much into.
#Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
Home 336 162 48% $43,109.09 $3,843.77 9%
Away 114 59 52% $12,132.17 $963.06 8%
Total 450 221 49% $55,241.26 $4,806.83 9%
#Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
Favourite 147 79 54% $18,466.86 $1,635.94 9%
Even 206 88 43% $25,386.42 $2,330.21 9%
Underdog 97 54 56% $11,387.98 $840.68 7%
Total 450 221 49% $55,241.26 $4,806.83 9%
Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0.05 0.075 108 58 54% $7,154.52 $1,239.61 17%
0.075 0.1 107 51 48% $10,069.85 $596.18 6%
0.1 0.15 116 56 48% $14,268.25 $1,288.66 9%
0.15 0.2 70 37 53% $12,189.14 $2,089.44 17%
0.2 0.4 49 19 39% $11,559.50 -$407.06 -4%
450 221 49% $55,241.26 $4,806.83 9%
League #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
Austria - EHL 53 24 45% $6,827.40 -$311.71 -5%
Czech Republic - Extraliga 47 27 57% $5,686.76 $1,420.94 25%
Finland - SM-Liiga 60 24 40% $5,489.99 -$261.30 -5%
Germany - DEL 101 55 54% $11,049.09 $1,915.17 17%
Slovakia - Extraliga 44 18 41% $6,838.66 -$495.18 -7%
Sweden - Elitserien 54 26 48% $6,587.92 $1,239.37 19%
Switzerland - Nationalliga A 75 37 49% $11,232.18 $767.67 7%
United States - AHL 9 5 56% $939.11 $442.54 47%
United States - NHL 7 5 71% $590.15 $89.33 15%
450 221 49% 55241.26 4806.83 9%
Finally, and most interestingly, the totals. Clearly here, there is maximum value on the unders betting. A massive 19% ROI has been made betting unders from 155 bets. Betting overs actually lost a small amount of money. Even large overlays on the overs still lost, whilst unders gained profit in every overlay category. Clearly the unders odds are biased in our favour. Whilst the sample size is small for both unders and overs betting, history has shown on this website, that unders betting has and probably will be always more advantageous to bet than overs; no matter what the sport.
#Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
Over 163 72 44% $15,292.14 -$476.76 -3%
Under 155 91 59% $17,450.22 $3,355.88 19%
Total 318 163 51% $32,742.36 $2,879.12 9%
Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0.05 0.075 115 63 55% $7,357.57 $1,106.48 15%
0.075 0.1 83 39 47% $7,179.92 $323.56 5%
0.1 0.15 69 34 49% $8,583.12 $338.22 4%
0.15 0.2 37 21 57% $6,435.58 $1,298.61 20%
0.2 0.4 14 6 43% $3,186.17 -$187.75 -6%
318 163 51% $32,742.36 $2,879.12 9%
Overlay Over #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0.05 0.075 55 28 51% $3,527.49 $229.24 6%
0.075 0.1 56 24 43% $4,677.10 -$16.24 0%
0.1 0.15 35 14 40% $4,073.46 -$280.08 -7%
0.15 0.2 15 6 40% $2,588.81 -$196.74 -8%
0.2 0.4 2 0 0% $425.28 -$212.94 -50%
163 72 44% $15,292.14 -$476.76 -3%
Overlay Under #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0.05 0.075 60 35 58% $3,830.08 $877.24 23%
0.075 0.1 27 15 56% $2,502.82 $339.80 14%
0.1 0.15 34 20 59% $4,509.66 $618.30 14%
0.15 0.2 22 15 68% $3,846.77 $1,495.35 39%
0.2 0.4 12 6 50% $2,760.89 $25.19 1%
155 91 59% $17,450.22 $3,355.88 19%
League #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
Austria - EHL 10 5 50% $630.76 $229.48 36%
Czech Republic - Extraliga 21 12 57% $2,017.63 $287.22 14%
Finland - SM-Liiga 90 44 49% $8,839.37 $231.81 3%
Germany - DEL 33 13 39% $2,321.22 -$346.65 -15%
Slovakia - Extraliga 31 17 55% $2,730.56 $373.31 14%
Sweden - Elitserien 66 31 47% $8,300.51 -$178.34 -2%
Switzerland - Nationalliga A 57 38 67% $6,899.75 $2,633.18 38%
United States - AHL 5 1 20% $351.59 -$226.30 -64%
United States - NHL 5 2 40% $650.97 -$124.59 -19%
318 163 51% 32742.36 2879.12 9%
Switzerland - Nationalliga A #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
Over 4 1 25% $304.93 -$177.91 -58%
Under 53 37 70% $6,594.82 $2,811.09 43%
Total 57 38 67% $6,899.75 $2,633.18 38%
But almost all of this profit was gained in Switzerland’s National A league. This is very interesting. Whilst the average across of the leagues totals scores was 5.33. Switzerland’s was only slightly lower at 5.27. The average totals line across all leagues was actually 5.27 as well, but in Switzerland’s case it was 5.44. And there is what lies the advantage.
Whilst it could be random variation that the Swiss provided the majority of the profit from its 57 bets, it must be noted that even not taking into consideration of this league, 5% ROI was still made betting the unders in the other leagues.
I wouldn’t put all your eggs into the Swiss basket at this stage, we simply dont have enough data to determine if the edge in this league is bigger than the rest. But at least, keep it in the back of your mind for the end of seasons analysis next year.
Full betting history and European Ice hockey information is given here. Predictions are free.
