Minimum Overlay in College Basketball
With college basketball starting strong we thought we’d do some analysis on the college basketball since we started posting predictions way back in 2003. Since then, there have been a few years that have been haphazard, but more recently all bets have been recorded. Shown below is in the minimum overlays for betting the totals for NCAAB, both in total, as well as separated into betting overs and unders.
Min.Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0.05 0.075 1531 797 52.1% $99,103.62 $4,120.77 4.2%
0.075 0.1 1054 509 48.3% $95,895.09 -$2,481.29 -2.6%
0.1 0.125 751 395 52.6% $87,707.70 $6,241.38 7.1%
0.125 0.15 481 271 56.3% $68,381.50 $10,387.54 15.2%
0.15 0.175 323 166 51.4% $54,180.59 $3,368.48 6.2%
0.175 0.2 218 115 52.8% $42,372.81 $3,478.15 8.2%
0.2 0.25 241 151 62.7% $54,285.96 $15,218.38 28.0%
0.25 0.3 106 51 48.1% $30,223.88 -$382.19 -1.3%
0.3 0.4 55 23 41.8% $18,949.47 -$1,467.36 -7.7%
0.4 2 28 22 78.6% $8,455.27 $2,698.42 31.9%
4788 2500 52.2% $559,555.89 $41,182.28 7.4%
Min.Overlay Over #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0.05 0.075 559 293 52.4% $35,846.09 $1,677.59 4.7%
0.075 0.1 337 163 48.4% $30,458.14 -$879.24 -2.9%
0.1 0.125 219 120 54.8% $25,311.17 $2,850.08 11.3%
0.125 0.15 139 86 61.9% $19,708.85 $5,328.59 27.0%
0.15 0.175 88 41 46.6% $14,494.58 -$674.89 -4.7%
0.175 0.2 47 20 42.6% $9,128.23 -$951.54 -10.4%
0.2 0.25 53 29 54.7% $11,583.52 $1,502.81 13.0%
0.25 0.3 21 9 42.9% $5,822.24 -$483.01 -8.3%
0.3 0.4 8 3 37.5% $2,586.70 -$512.50 -19.8%
0.4 2 15 15 100.0% $2,410.04 $2,147.94 89.1%
1486 779 52.4% $157,349.55 $10,005.83 6.4%
Min.Overlay Under #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0.05 0.075 972 504 51.9% $63,257.53 $2,443.18 3.9%
0.075 0.1 717 346 48.3% $65,436.95 -$1,602.05 -2.4%
0.1 0.125 532 275 51.7% $62,396.53 $3,391.30 5.4%
0.125 0.15 342 185 54.1% $48,672.65 $5,058.95 10.4%
0.15 0.175 235 125 53.2% $39,686.01 $4,043.38 10.2%
0.175 0.2 171 95 55.6% $33,244.58 $4,429.69 13.3%
0.2 0.25 188 122 64.9% $42,702.44 $13,715.57 32.1%
0.25 0.3 85 42 49.4% $24,401.65 $100.82 0.4%
0.3 0.4 47 20 42.6% $16,362.77 -$954.86 -5.8%
0.4 2 25 19 76.0% $6,045.23 $550.47 9.1%
3314 1733 52.3% $402,206.34 $31,176.45 7.8%
Un
ders, as expected, has the majority of bets, but decent profits are made betting both the unders and the overs. A minimum overlay of 5% ROI seems quite substantial. Interestingly enough, I calculated what the %ROI would be if we received 5c lower odds (eg. 1.90 instead of 1.95) betting the totals.
Amazingly, this increased the %ROI, despite a lower profit. This is because a lower price, generally took away most of the 5-10% lower overlays and hence concentrated more on the larger overlays where good profit has been made. Any good model, should follow this rule, that larger overlays result, on average, to greater profits, and it seems that the college basketball model fits this way exactly.
Lets hope for more good profits, from the free predictions as given by the sportpunter model. All details regarding Sportpunter’s free college basketball picks are shown here:
