Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 4
Last week we looked at the successful WTA 2009 season, however today we will look at how the tennis model went in the last five years since 2005 to give a better overall idea of how the model works. The data is shown below in the tables, and following this will be a good write up for discussion.
Prob #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 190 6 3.2% $3,728.07 -$1,543.09 -41.4%
0.1 0.2 553 59 10.7% $23,399.44 -$1,463.45 -6.3%
0.2 0.3 749 138 18.4% $49,989.88 $5,159.04 10.3%
0.3 0.4 947 252 26.6% $81,583.50 -$1,741.03 -2.1%
0.4 0.5 1132 452 39.9% $132,703.21 $17,130.20 12.9%
0.5 0.6 1018 468 46.0% $155,022.50 -$2,533.05 -1.6%
0.6 0.7 1176 697 59.3% $208,008.26 $24,959.24 12.0%
0.7 0.8 1155 788 68.2% $262,276.93 $16,796.32 6.4%
0.8 0.9 1096 878 80.1% $326,980.41 $24,387.76 7.5%
0.9 1 652 588 90.2% $268,285.25 $7,059.81 2.6%
TOTAL 8668 4326 49.9% $1,511,977.43 $88,211.76 5.8%
Odds #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
1 1.4 1828 1524 83.4% $513,586.44 $15,529.65 3.0%
1.4 1.7 1443 961 66.6% $308,013.07 $14,762.71 4.8%
1.7 2 853 486 57.0% $159,646.56 $11,411.08 7.1%
2 2.25 607 304 50.1% $100,946.86 $5,873.29 5.8%
2.25 2.5 524 227 43.3% $82,575.69 $8,667.67 10.5%
2.5 3 839 320 38.1% $115,599.20 $19,216.00 16.6%
3 4 902 265 29.4% $102,345.92 $7,931.06 7.7%
4 6 768 150 19.5% $73,501.21 -$2,436.01 -3.3%
6 10 488 68 13.9% $33,770.24 $6,769.31 20.0%
10 50 414 21 5.1% $21,270.79 $1,208.45 5.7%
TOTAL 8666 4326 49.9% $1,511,255.97 $88,933.22 5.9%
Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.05 2093 1340 64.0% $183,203.55 $2,319.89 1.3%
0.05 0.1 1525 866 56.8% $238,399.74 -$1,461.40 -0.6%
0.1 0.15 1143 619 54.2% $236,813.66 $4,568.55 1.9%
0.15 0.2 869 444 51.1% $191,022.56 $12,426.28 6.5%
0.2 0.25 632 262 41.5% $132,535.01 $1,245.57 0.9%
0.25 0.3 476 207 43.5% $110,754.95 $8,553.20 7.7%
0.3 0.4 647 245 37.9% $142,518.04 $14,694.49 10.3%
0.4 0.6 661 208 31.5% $142,630.93 $14,917.62 10.5%
0.6 1 397 107 27.0% $91,419.04 $21,267.18 23.3%
1 5 222 27 12.2% $41,573.81 $5,540.56 13.3%
TOTAL 8665 4325 49.9% $1,510,871.29 $84,071.94 5.6%
SP Rules
Prob #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 0 0 #DIV/0! $- $- #DIV/0!
0.1 0.2 0 0 #DIV/0! $- $- #DIV/0!
0.2 0.3 0 0 #DIV/0! $- $- #DIV/0!
0.3 0.4 358 85 23.7% $53,545.50 $118.82 0.2%
0.4 0.5 406 143 35.2% $80,857.79 $15,539.98 19.2%
0.5 0.6 831 365 43.9% $149,539.41 -$2,522.39 -1.7%
0.6 0.7 896 524 58.5% $196,012.13 $24,629.13 12.6%
0.7 0.8 827 550 66.5% $239,857.88 $17,242.93 7.2%
0.8 0.9 708 550 77.7% $281,611.15 $23,878.29 8.5%
0.9 1 301 255 84.7% $177,364.58 $4,798.39 2.7%
TOTAL 4327 2472 57.1% $1,178,788.44 $83,685.14 7.1%
Odds #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
1 1.4 874 708 81.0% $362,378.30 $13,512.37 3.7%
1.4 1.7 1057 709 67.1% $289,108.94 $14,203.80 4.9%
1.7 2 690 394 57.1% $154,359.41 $11,430.27 7.4%
2 2.25 455 218 47.9% $95,924.73 $4,507.77 4.7%
2.25 2.5 251 119 47.4% $64,736.10 $9,260.96 14.3%
2.5 3 315 133 42.2% $80,683.83 $19,251.44 23.9%
3 4 408 129 31.6% $77,894.03 $8,573.85 11.0%
4 6 248 58 23.4% $46,451.25 $977.05 2.1%
6 10 25 4 16.0% $5,732.58 $3,486.90 60.8%
10 50 3 0 0.0% $828.41 -$828.41 -100.0%
TOTAL 4326 2472 57.1% $1,178,097.58 $84,376.00 7.2%
Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.05 0 0 #DIV/0! $- $- #DIV/0!
0.05 0.1 1044 715 68.5% $221,143.82 -$1,881.71 -0.9%
0.1 0.15 771 515 66.8% $216,403.40 $5,165.77 2.4%
0.15 0.2 531 350 65.9% $165,433.92 $13,450.07 8.1%
0.2 0.25 320 185 57.8% $105,244.40 $3,593.27 3.4%
0.25 0.3 387 197 50.9% $106,336.52 $9,666.94 9.1%
0.3 0.4 502 227 45.2% $134,139.31 $15,435.02 11.5%
0.4 0.6 448 176 39.3% $126,800.29 $12,029.77 9.5%
0.6 1 255 90 35.3% $78,306.41 $18,913.73 24.2%
1 5 68 17 25.0% $24,289.51 $8,003.12 32.9%
TOTAL 4326 2472 57.1% $1,178,097.58 $84,376.00 7.2%
Surface
Hard 2161 1221 56.5% $573,500.45 $40,488.75 7.1%
Clay 1321 785 59.4% $379,762.23 $27,217.00 7.2%
Grass 342 190 55.6% $85,252.23 $7,370.91 8.6%
I.Hard 454 245 54.0% $124,063.16 $1,686.88 1.4%
Carpet 49 31 63.3% $16,210.36 $6,921.60 42.7%
TOTAL 4327 2472 57.1% $1,178,788.44 $83,685.14 7.1%
Overlay Prob 20-30% Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.05 103 22 21.4% $768.30 -$172.59 -22.5%
0.05 0.1 101 22 21.8% $2,317.63 -$183.27 -7.9%
0.1 0.15 69 12 17.4% $2,489.89 -$588.69 -23.6%
0.15 0.2 65 14 21.5% $3,235.21 -$90.95 -2.8%
0.2 0.25 65 10 15.4% $3,803.27 -$1,036.43 -27.3%
0.25 0.3 47 3 6.4% $3,099.41 -$1,994.65 -64.4%
0.3 0.4 68 14 20.6% $5,393.18 $638.12 11.8%
0.4 0.6 108 22 20.4% $10,904.54 $2,148.46 19.7%
0.6 1 64 13 20.3% $8,215.58 $3,479.08 42.3%
1 100 59 6 10.2% $9,762.86 $2,959.96 30.3%
TOTAL 749 138 18.4% $49,989.88 $5,159.04 10.3%
Overlay Prob 30-40% Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.05 165 42 25.5% $2,234.42 -$564.29 -25.3%
0.05 0.1 135 43 31.9% $4,878.81 -$94.21 -1.9%
0.1 0.15 97 30 30.9% $5,355.23 $37.94 0.7%
0.15 0.2 101 28 27.7% $7,544.98 -$621.12 -8.2%
0.2 0.25 91 24 26.4% $8,024.56 -$618.17 -7.7%
0.25 0.3 61 19 31.1% $6,482.61 $866.51 13.4%
0.3 0.4 88 18 20.5% $11,031.41 -$2,876.63 -26.1%
0.4 0.6 97 25 25.8% $14,327.34 $1,274.79 8.9%
0.6 1 88 21 23.9% $16,074.62 $2,909.39 18.1%
1 100 24 2 8.3% $5,629.51 -$2,055.24 -36.5%
TOTAL 947 252 26.6% $81,583.50 -$1,741.03 -2.1%
Overlay Prob 40-50% Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.05 188 89 47.3% $3,671.80 $487.33 13.3%
0.05 0.1 169 74 43.8% $9,228.96 $431.00 4.7%
0.1 0.15 135 56 41.5% $11,264.27 $373.13 3.3%
0.15 0.2 126 51 40.5% $13,691.23 $594.05 4.3%
0.2 0.25 108 39 36.1% $13,989.16 -$295.29 -2.1%
0.25 0.3 72 25 34.7% $10,719.25 -$12.11 -0.1%
0.3 0.4 132 48 36.4% $23,354.00 $1,495.65 6.4%
0.4 0.6 121 48 39.7% $25,129.48 $8,093.57 32.2%
0.6 1 63 16 25.4% $16,191.30 $165.00 1.0%
1 100 18 6 33.3% $5,463.77 $5,797.87 106.1%
TOTAL 1132 452 39.9% $132,703.21 $17,130.20 12.9%
U
nlike the mens analysis, all raw data without SP rules, showed good profits amongst almost all the probabilities (probabilities of 20% and below showed a loss), and all odds and overlays. Higher overlays resulted in higher returns which is a key for a good model to show.
When looking at the sportpunter rules, when the probability was between 30% and 40%, we basically broke even from 358 bets, we will look at this are more closely soon. All other probabilities showed good profits. Similarly all odds showed good profits, but also interestingly a loss was found when betting overlays between 5% and 10%. This loss was quite small (only -0.9% ROI), but with over 1000 bets it is sure to be significant. Perhaps a minimum 10% overlay for when probabilities are 50%+ should be undertaken.
All surfaces showed good profits.
When looking at the overlays when the probability of winning is between 20 and 30%, we can see that a minimum of 30% or 40% overlay shows a good profit. A minimum 40% overlay (to give some leeway to the big negative returns when the overlay is 20-30%) perhaps should be implemented.
For the 30% to 40% range, it would seem that the same 40%-50% minimum overlay range should be executed.
The 40-50% range interestingly shows a profit from even the 0% minium overlay. A 13.3%ROI when the overlay is less than 5% shows exactly what a low sample size can do. On average, the expected return could not be more than 5%, so the fact that the return in this period is so high is no doubt due to luck. There seems no reason why a minimum 10% overlay, to keep in line when the probability is greater than 50%, should not be used.
Hence, given the above, it is suggested that the new rules for WTA tennis betting in 2010 will be as follows:
Probability 40%+: min 10% overlay
Probability 20-40%, min 40% overlay.
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Sign up to the Sportpunter Tennis Model by 31/12/09 to receive a free Sportpunter Polo shirt and free entry, along with myself, into day 1 of the Australian Tennis Open.
