Soccer analysis – best and worst leagues
There has been a lot of discussion going on in our forum at the moment about the Sportpunter soccer model and the incredible profits that have been achieved. There is also talk about the high number of bets on a Saturday as we cover almost every single league in the world, with some of these leagues it is difficult to get adequate bet sizes on.
So what happens if we don’t bet on some of the minor leagues? Well let’s see what the best performing and worst performing leagues are since we went live with soccer betting on 14/09/09. These are based only on head to head or 1×2 betting.
Here are the top 10 leagues:
| League | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| scotland3 | 27 | 12 | 44% | $ 3,586.86 | $1,801.84 | 50% |
| sweden2 | 51 | 21 | 41% | $ 6,284.00 | $1,726.66 | 27% |
| italy2 | 52 | 18 | 35% | $ 5,624.93 | $1,714.61 | 30% |
| japan1 | 31 | 11 | 35% | $ 2,848.35 | $1,697.30 | 60% |
| turkey1 | 25 | 10 | 40% | $ 1,933.06 | $1,642.92 | 85% |
| england2 | 67 | 18 | 27% | $ 4,437.02 | $1,452.28 | 33% |
| denmark1 | 20 | 12 | 60% | $ 2,243.20 | $1,249.96 | 56% |
| austria2 | 25 | 10 | 40% | $ 3,941.79 | $1,090.00 | 28% |
| estonia1 | 12 | 9 | 75% | $ 3,644.44 | $1,057.31 | 29% |
| poland2 | 28 | 11 | 39% | $ 2,438.69 | $ 942.16 | 39% |
And here are the bottom 10 leagues:
| League | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| ukraine1 | 21 | 2 | 10% | $ 1,099.85 | -$ 736.05 | -67% |
| belgium1 | 33 | 10 | 30% | $ 2,980.64 | -$ 763.54 | -26% |
| chile1 | 31 | 9 | 29% | $ 3,877.72 | -$ 777.18 | -20% |
| belgium2 | 30 | 7 | 23% | $ 3,225.45 | -$ 795.04 | -25% |
| scotland2 | 20 | 3 | 15% | $ 2,258.78 | -$ 954.04 | -42% |
| france2 | 42 | 12 | 29% | $ 3,517.98 | -$ 981.80 | -28% |
| norway2 | 35 | 8 | 23% | $ 3,044.86 | -$1,028.83 | -34% |
| czechia1 | 23 | 6 | 26% | $ 2,811.63 | -$1,395.78 | -50% |
| england5 | 66 | 16 | 24% | $ 4,712.60 | -$1,626.49 | -35% |
| romania1 | 32 | 4 | 13% | $ 3,171.01 | -$2,240.14 | -71 |
Interestingly a lot of the leagues in the top 10 are middle quality leagues. All of them are lower European leagues along with Japan. None of the big leagues are there, although I note that English Premier League has come in 12th position with 34 bets at 30% ROI.
The bottom ten have a few strange leagues. Firstly, Romania is dead last on the list, with only 4 wins from 32 bets. Something might be playing up there. Ukraine is also on the list, long with the English Conference National.
Here is the list of all the questionable leagues:
| League | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| estonia1 | 12 | 9 | 75% | $ 3,644.44 | $1,057.31 | 29% |
| ecuador1 | 7 | 3 | 43% | $ 2,583.85 | $ 869.71 | 34% |
| slovenia1 | 15 | 6 | 40% | $ 1,451.88 | $ 442.97 | 31% |
| latvia1 | 4 | 3 | 75% | $ 844.06 | $ 278.88 | 33% |
| peru1 | 6 | 3 | 50% | $ 364.74 | $ 232.17 | 64% |
| uruguay1 | 10 | 4 | 40% | $ 962.94 | $ 230.02 | 24% |
| hungary1 | 23 | 9 | 39% | $ 2,581.73 | $ 226.96 | 9% |
| slovakia1 | 7 | 3 | 43% | $ 872.99 | $ 179.95 | 21% |
| iceland1 | 7 | 2 | 29% | $ 1,160.19 | $ 59.24 | 5% |
| lithuania1 | 5 | 1 | 20% | $ 378.00 | -$ 87.06 | -23% |
| singapore1 | 11 | 5 | 45% | $ 1,077.77 | -$ 170.24 | -16% |
| romania1 | 32 | 4 | 13% | $ 3,171.01 | -$2,240.14 | -71% |
So apart from Romania, there seems to be some very good results in the minor eastern European (and Singapore) leagues.
Could Sportpunters analysis of found a corrupt league? I will take a closer look at Romania, to try and pinpoint any problems. Overall, the minor leagues seem to be doing quite well.
View all the soccer betting histories here
The soccer model will also become a paid service in the new year so start following our picks now to make enough profit to pay for it next year.
This is sounding prophetic after todays news about all the current corruption in the european leagues. Maybe we should have made more of a big deal of it when we had the thought that it might have been corrupt