NBA Season 2014-15, weekly past analysis
The NBA season starts in just over a week, and once again Sportpunter will be providing predictions. Predictions will be updated on a regular basis every day between 5pm and 6pm AEDT.
Our record has been extremely good as our betting history suggests here:
http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/nba/ with h2h betting making 1.6% ROI, line betting making 0.9% ROI and totals betting making 3.2% ROI.
Whilst those numbers might seem small compared to the rest of Sportpunter’s models, the truth is, is that traditionally over the past four years, almost all the profit has come in the first few months of betting, where the return of investment is far higher than later months.
And to prove this point, we have analysed the Sportpunter NBA model by weeks since the start of the season, and the results are shown in the tables below.
Firstly, betting the line. Shown in the right columns is the cumulative profit and %ROI which we can see reaches a peak after 7 weeks at $17,553. This means that in the past, the Sportpunter NBA line betting model has made 9% ROI in the first 8 weeks. That’s some decent profit. After this time, the model doesn’t do as well, and clearly profits decrease. There are number of reasons for this which we shall discuss in the next article.
| Weeks | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | Cumulative Profit | Cumulative %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 108 | $26,696.39 | $623.87 | 2% | $623.87 | 2.3% |
| 1 | 101 | $23,588.93 | $1,980.84 | 8% | $2,604.71 | 5.2% |
| 2 | 107 | $24,715.85 | $2,050.40 | 8% | $4,655.11 | 6.2% |
| 3 | 126 | $23,737.58 | $2,735.42 | 12% | $7,390.53 | 7.5% |
| 4 | 132 | $26,246.38 | $4,038.65 | 15% | $11,429.18 | 9.1% |
| 5 | 153 | $28,576.36 | $3,735.78 | 13% | $15,164.96 | 9.9% |
| 6 | 127 | $22,696.21 | $2,029.34 | 9% | $17,194.29 | 9.8% |
| 7 | 125 | $19,748.86 | $359.50 | 2% | $17,553.80 | 9.0% |
| 8 | 119 | $19,646.16 | -$903.72 | -5% | $16,650.08 | 7.7% |
| 9 | 124 | $20,943.01 | -$1,909.26 | -9% | $14,740.81 | 6.2% |
| 10 | 129 | $20,147.06 | -$3,626.56 | -18% | $11,114.25 | 4.3% |
| 11 | 121 | $20,444.99 | -$3,060.87 | -15% | $8,053.38 | 2.9% |
| 12 | 119 | $17,588.85 | -$1,261.39 | -7% | $6,791.99 | 2.3% |
| 13 | 106 | $17,408.98 | -$1,490.73 | -9% | $5,301.26 | 1.7% |
| 14 | 119 | $20,086.78 | $1,946.89 | 10% | $7,248.15 | 2.2% |
| 15 | 107 | $17,986.24 | $1,185.14 | 7% | $8,433.29 | 2.4% |
| 16 | 101 | $17,982.22 | $1,287.34 | 7% | $9,720.63 | 2.6% |
| 17 | 96 | $15,337.28 | -$93.46 | -1% | $9,627.17 | 2.5% |
| 18 | 106 | $18,547.34 | -$2,877.50 | -16% | $6,749.67 | 1.7% |
| 19 | 97 | $15,631.37 | -$2,269.42 | -15% | $4,480.25 | 1.1% |
| 20 | 99 | $15,301.91 | $4,825.99 | 32% | $9,306.24 | 2.1% |
| 21 | 88 | $13,611.04 | -$1,296.72 | -10% | $8,009.52 | 1.8% |
| 22 | 77 | $12,343.56 | -$45.43 | 0% | $7,964.09 | 1.7% |
| 23 | 71 | $11,388.85 | -$484.63 | -4% | $7,479.46 | 1.6% |
| 24 | 34 | $9,803.15 | -$2,316.83 | -24% | $5,162.64 | 1.1% |
| 25 | 22 | $4,472.74 | -$631.50 | -14% | $4,531.14 | 0.9% |
| 26 | 9 | $1,325.51 | $71.76 | 5% | $4,602.89 | 0.9% |
| 27 | 11 | $2,137.59 | -$786.68 | -37% | $3,816.22 | 0.8% |
| 28 | 7 | $891.16 | -$180.30 | -20% | $3,635.91 | 0.7% |
| 29 | 5 | $541.79 | $280.21 | 52% | $3,916.12 | 0.8% |
| 30 | 2 | $145.28 | -$145.28 | -100% | $3,770.84 | 0.8% |
| 31 | 2 | $298.15 | -$100.66 | -34% | $3,670.18 | 0.7% |
| 32 | 5 | $705.05 | $221.44 | 31% | $3,891.63 | 0.8% |
| 33 | 2 | $449.96 | -$40.96 | -9% | $3,850.66 | 0.8% |
But before that, let’s look at totals betting. Shown in the table below is our record betting totals week by week. Profits increase until about 11 weeks after the start of the season (or week 12). Here a $18.760 profit is made at 6.1% ROI. Profits decrease after this amount, but not as dramatically as line betting.
| Weeks | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | Cumulative Profit | Cumulative %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 104 | $30,006.42 | $2,103.99 | 7% | $2,103.99 | 7.0% |
| 1 | 114 | $27,450.60 | $1,867.15 | 7% | $3,971.14 | 6.9% |
| 2 | 106 | $27,203.04 | $572.47 | 2% | $4,543.61 | 5.4% |
| 3 | 116 | $26,968.47 | $2,229.30 | 8% | $6,772.91 | 6.1% |
| 4 | 128 | $26,913.98 | $1,061.37 | 4% | $7,834.28 | 5.7% |
| 5 | 147 | $29,767.31 | -$203.80 | -1% | $7,630.48 | 4.5% |
| 6 | 130 | $24,119.15 | $2,191.77 | 9% | $9,822.25 | 5.1% |
| 7 | 132 | $22,388.13 | $1,380.54 | 6% | $11,202.79 | 5.2% |
| 8 | 110 | $18,334.06 | $2,961.97 | 16% | $14,164.76 | 6.1% |
| 9 | 112 | $20,155.26 | $1,757.57 | 9% | $15,922.32 | 6.3% |
| 10 | 109 | $16,336.10 | $1,275.16 | 8% | $17,197.49 | 6.4% |
| 11 | 108 | $19,015.21 | $1,863.57 | 10% | $19,061.06 | 6.6% |
| 12 | 120 | $19,194.24 | -$300.61 | -2% | $18,760.44 | 6.1% |
| 13 | 119 | $18,187.20 | -$3,387.77 | -19% | $15,372.68 | 4.7% |
| 14 | 120 | $20,940.50 | $1,576.51 | 8% | $16,949.18 | 4.9% |
| 15 | 98 | $15,568.35 | -$2,590.65 | -17% | $14,358.53 | 4.0% |
| 16 | 85 | $13,972.67 | -$76.51 | -1% | $14,282.02 | 3.8% |
| 17 | 100 | $13,833.64 | -$471.41 | -3% | $13,810.61 | 3.5% |
| 18 | 107 | $17,476.89 | -$1,339.36 | -8% | $12,471.25 | 3.1% |
| 19 | 93 | $16,384.96 | -$146.29 | -1% | $12,324.96 | 2.9% |
| 20 | 89 | $13,236.62 | -$2,122.22 | -16% | $10,202.73 | 2.3% |
| 21 | 91 | $15,576.76 | $967.98 | 6% | $11,170.71 | 2.5% |
| 22 | 75 | $11,191.82 | $1,360.43 | 12% | $12,531.14 | 2.7% |
| 23 | 64 | $9,315.16 | -$638.90 | -7% | $11,892.24 | 2.5% |
| 24 | 35 | $7,497.02 | -$331.03 | -4% | $11,561.20 | 2.4% |
| 25 | 32 | $7,405.82 | $188.33 | 3% | $11,749.53 | 2.4% |
| 26 | 13 | $2,917.35 | $239.47 | 8% | $11,989.00 | 2.4% |
| 27 | 8 | $836.63 | -$19.58 | -2% | $11,969.42 | 2.4% |
| 28 | 11 | $1,889.43 | $49.13 | 3% | $12,018.55 | 2.4% |
| 29 | 10 | $2,092.82 | $878.64 | 42% | $12,897.19 | 2.6% |
| 30 | 7 | $1,557.30 | -$756.53 | -49% | $12,140.66 | 2.4% |
| 31 | 3 | $568.93 | -$568.93 | -100% | $11,571.73 | 2.3% |
| 32 | 5 | $745.12 | $710.97 | 95% | $12,282.69 | 2.5% |
| 33 | 2 | $342.33 | -$118.43 | -35% | $12,164.26 | 2.4% |
So what is to make of this? Clearly the Sportpunter NBA model has been very profitable in the early stages, and hopefully will be again. It is recommended to stop betting the NBA model at the stages listed above, and hopefully by then our banks will be thanking us.
However, there is another news in regards to the Sportpunter NBA Model, and that is the Sportpunter upgraded player based model….which will be talked about in the next article.
Check out all the Sportpunter NBA information here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/nba/
