NBL 2014/15 analysis
The NBL, or Australian Basketball starts this Friday, and hopefully we will achieve the same success as we have in the past. As our betting history shows, we have made 4.1% ROI betting h2h from 779 bets in 8 years. But better than h2h betting, is the line betting which has made 15.3% ROI in the 3 years that we have been recording it. Making profits of 18.1%, 12.8% and 15.4% in all three years, it clearly shows its profitability and consistency in betting the line.
Adding to that the totals model which has made 10.1% ROI form 723 bets in 8 seasons. Last year we made 17.5% ROI betting the totals.
Clearly the market is largely inefficient, and Sportpunter’s NBL model is very accurate. With only a small subscription fee, make sure that you get on board this season. Details shown here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/nbl/
We’ve done a full analysis of the NBL as shown below, and will be split into three sections. H2h betting, line betting and totals betting. Keep in mind that the sample size is small, so this is a guide and not gospel.
H2h betting.
As shown in the tables below, the majority of profits seem to have come betting on away teams which is a little surprising. Profits are spread amongst all odds amounts, however the biggest returns have come from outsiders, which tell us that the NBL model when betting h2h, does well picking up outsiders that are most likely playing away. About a 20% minimum overlay has worked well in the past, and history suggests that a lot of the profits come from the first few months.
| #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 471 | 254 | 54% | $130,879.93 | $1,383.21 | 1% | |
| Away | 310 | 98 | 32% | $41,414.09 | $5,643.84 | 14% | |
| 781 | 352 | 45% | $172,294.02 | $7,027.05 | 4% | ||
| Odds | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 1 | 1.3 | 51 | 40 | 78% | $21,382.39 | -$1,077.72 | -5% |
| 1.3 | 1.5 | 87 | 65 | 75% | $28,871.33 | $2,294.30 | 8% |
| 1.5 | 1.75 | 102 | 61 | 60% | $27,256.68 | -$414.90 | -2% |
| 1.75 | 2 | 77 | 37 | 48% | $21,618.11 | $2,264.78 | 10% |
| 2 | 2.25 | 65 | 30 | 46% | $14,800.95 | $66.19 | 0% |
| 2.25 | 2.5 | 61 | 22 | 36% | $11,848.68 | -$1,598.76 | -13% |
| 2.5 | 3 | 88 | 39 | 44% | $17,183.67 | $2,079.74 | 12% |
| 3 | 5 | 140 | 41 | 29% | $19,654.89 | $1,768.76 | 9% |
| 5 | 22 | 110 | 17 | 15% | $9,677.32 | $1,644.66 | 17% |
| Overlay | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 0 | 0.075 | 91 | 37 | 41% | $12,739.60 | -$2,874.18 | -23% |
| 0.075 | 0.1 | 66 | 49 | 74% | $12,600.44 | $2,197.47 | 17% |
| 0.1 | 0.125 | 72 | 40 | 56% | $12,672.61 | $879.85 | 7% |
| 0.125 | 0.175 | 110 | 46 | 42% | $24,757.02 | -$4,711.14 | -19% |
| 0.175 | 0.25 | 128 | 63 | 49% | $26,158.09 | $2,995.94 | 11% |
| 0.25 | 0.35 | 104 | 48 | 46% | $26,185.46 | $4,060.26 | 16% |
| 0.35 | 0.5 | 93 | 38 | 41% | $25,412.93 | $2,080.54 | 8% |
| 0.5 | 0.75 | 73 | 19 | 26% | $20,284.93 | -$1,303.84 | -6% |
| 0.75 | 22 | 44 | 12 | 27% | $11,482.94 | $3,702.15 | 32% |
| Month | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 9 | 22 | 9 | 41% | $5,936.72 | $613.54 | 10% | |
| 10 | 131 | 70 | 53% | $31,902.03 | $4,909.56 | 15% | |
| 11 | 142 | 65 | 46% | $30,451.04 | $1,222.89 | 4% | |
| 12 | 135 | 63 | 47% | $26,901.20 | $1,037.32 | 4% | |
| 1 | 136 | 54 | 40% | $28,946.57 | -$1,687.33 | -6% | |
| 2 | 115 | 43 | 37% | $23,483.27 | $270.74 | 1% | |
| 3 | 84 | 41 | 49% | $20,436.80 | $1,915.11 | 9% | |
| 4 | 16 | 7 | 44% | $4,236.39 | -$1,254.78 | -30% |
Line Betting
Our line betting history has only been running for three years with amazing success. Profits are spread amongst different lines, and a minimum overlay of 30% and above has produced the most profit, (although its only 15% min when betting away teams). Profits are spread evenly throughout the season.
| #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 167 | 90 | 54% | $48,199.87 | $6,920.22 | 14% | |
| Away | 110 | 66 | 60% | $25,745.29 | $4,397.91 | 17% | |
| 277 | 156 | 56% | $73,945.16 | $11,318.13 | 15% | ||
| Line | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| -20 | -10 | 17 | 12 | 71% | $5,201.34 | $1,381.03 | 27% |
| -10 | -7.5 | 39 | 28 | 72% | $11,813.61 | $3,767.69 | 32% |
| -7.5 | -5 | 53 | 30 | 57% | $14,407.93 | $1,237.39 | 9% |
| -5 | -2.5 | 57 | 28 | 49% | $12,882.11 | $463.53 | 4% |
| -2.5 | 0 | 36 | 17 | 47% | $9,211.87 | $1,421.56 | 15% |
| 0 | 2.5 | 34 | 17 | 50% | $10,115.12 | $931.94 | 9% |
| 2.5 | 5 | 22 | 14 | 64% | $5,664.92 | $1,555.70 | 27% |
| 5 | 7.5 | 15 | 7 | 47% | $3,787.63 | -$110.64 | -3% |
| 7.5 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 75% | $860.63 | $669.93 | 78% |
| Home | Line | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| -20 | -10 | 14 | 9 | 64% | $4,474.15 | $682.35 | 15% |
| -10 | -7.5 | 25 | 16 | 64% | $8,868.13 | $1,576.43 | 18% |
| -7.5 | -5 | 32 | 18 | 56% | $9,130.84 | $1,602.17 | 18% |
| -5 | -2.5 | 29 | 12 | 41% | $6,826.75 | -$756.31 | -11% |
| -2.5 | 0 | 19 | 9 | 47% | $5,631.16 | $987.62 | 18% |
| 0 | 2.5 | 19 | 9 | 47% | $5,589.82 | $855.19 | 15% |
| 2.5 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 56% | $4,359.12 | $784.02 | 18% |
| 5 | 7.5 | 10 | 6 | 60% | $2,724.13 | $775.74 | 28% |
| 7.5 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 67% | $595.77 | $413.01 | 69% |
| Away | Line | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| -20 | -10 | 3 | 3 | 100% | $727.19 | $698.68 | 96% |
| -10 | -7.5 | 14 | 12 | 86% | $2,945.48 | $2,191.26 | 74% |
| -7.5 | -5 | 21 | 12 | 57% | $5,277.09 | -$364.78 | -7% |
| -5 | -2.5 | 28 | 16 | 57% | $6,055.36 | $1,219.84 | 20% |
| -2.5 | 0 | 17 | 8 | 47% | $3,580.71 | $433.94 | 12% |
| 0 | 2.5 | 15 | 8 | 53% | $4,525.30 | $76.75 | 2% |
| 2.5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 83% | $1,305.80 | $771.68 | 59% |
| 5 | 7.5 | 5 | 1 | 20% | $1,063.50 | -$886.38 | -83% |
| 7.5 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 100% | $264.86 | $256.92 | 97% |
| Overlay | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 0 | 0.1 | 36 | 23 | 64% | $2,977.50 | $805.65 | 27% |
| 0.1 | 0.15 | 32 | 15 | 47% | $4,212.16 | -$205.78 | -5% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 56 | 25 | 45% | $10,065.82 | -$1,190.72 | -12% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 24 | 15 | 63% | $5,568.23 | $1,237.40 | 22% |
| 0.25 | 0.3 | 35 | 15 | 43% | $9,961.48 | -$1,638.76 | -16% |
| 0.3 | 0.35 | 31 | 21 | 68% | $10,589.68 | $3,333.63 | 31% |
| 0.35 | 0.4 | 22 | 16 | 73% | $8,572.79 | $4,062.15 | 47% |
| 0.4 | 0.5 | 25 | 17 | 68% | $11,242.52 | $3,779.80 | 34% |
| 0.5 | 20 | 16 | 9 | 56% | $10,754.98 | $1,134.76 | 11% |
| Home | Overlay | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 0 | 0.1 | 13 | 9 | 69% | $1,073.13 | $326.32 | 30% |
| 0.1 | 0.15 | 18 | 8 | 44% | $2,331.65 | -$192.45 | -8% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 32 | 12 | 38% | $5,752.74 | -$1,344.23 | -23% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 13 | 6 | 46% | $2,951.23 | -$313.45 | -11% |
| 0.25 | 0.3 | 21 | 6 | 29% | $5,942.58 | -$2,614.79 | -44% |
| 0.3 | 0.35 | 20 | 15 | 75% | $6,813.55 | $3,217.16 | 47% |
| 0.35 | 0.4 | 18 | 12 | 67% | $7,005.15 | $2,565.87 | 37% |
| 0.4 | 0.5 | 21 | 16 | 76% | $9,385.17 | $4,660.97 | 50% |
| 0.5 | 20 | 11 | 6 | 55% | $6,944.67 | $614.82 | 9% |
| Away | Overlay | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 0 | 0.1 | 23 | 14 | 61% | $1,904.37 | $479.33 | 25% |
| 0.1 | 0.15 | 14 | 7 | 50% | $1,880.51 | -$13.33 | -1% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 24 | 13 | 54% | $4,313.08 | $153.51 | 4% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 11 | 9 | 82% | $2,617.00 | $1,550.85 | 59% |
| 0.25 | 0.3 | 14 | 9 | 64% | $4,018.90 | $976.03 | 24% |
| 0.3 | 0.35 | 11 | 6 | 55% | $3,776.13 | $116.47 | 3% |
| 0.35 | 0.4 | 4 | 4 | 100% | $1,567.64 | $1,496.28 | 95% |
| 0.4 | 0.5 | 4 | 1 | 25% | $1,857.35 | -$881.17 | -47% |
| 0.5 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 60% | $3,810.31 | $519.94 | 14% |
| Month | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | $- | $- | #DIV/0! | |
| 10 | 41 | 22 | 54% | $10,786.46 | $379.38 | 4% | |
| 11 | 46 | 26 | 57% | $13,505.06 | $2,481.89 | 18% | |
| 12 | 45 | 29 | 64% | $10,575.83 | $1,170.55 | 11% | |
| 1 | 46 | 22 | 48% | $12,604.94 | $631.56 | 5% | |
| 2 | 43 | 26 | 60% | $12,001.92 | $3,690.56 | 31% | |
| 3 | 48 | 28 | 58% | $12,414.76 | $3,185.81 | 26% | |
| 4 | 8 | 3 | 38% | $2,056.19 | -$221.62 | -11% | |
| Home | Month | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | $- | $- | #DIV/0! | |
| 10 | 29 | 13 | 45% | $7,972.71 | -$1,296.26 | -16% | |
| 11 | 24 | 12 | 50% | $7,890.99 | $1,204.27 | 15% | |
| 12 | 28 | 17 | 61% | $6,612.96 | $883.15 | 13% | |
| 1 | 28 | 14 | 50% | $8,655.75 | $885.95 | 10% | |
| 2 | 27 | 15 | 56% | $8,568.47 | $1,992.77 | 23% | |
| 3 | 27 | 17 | 63% | $7,340.13 | $2,932.71 | 40% | |
| 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | $1,158.86 | $317.63 | 27% | |
| Away | Month | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | $- | $- | #DIV/0! | |
| 10 | 12 | 9 | 75% | $2,813.75 | $1,675.64 | 60% | |
| 11 | 22 | 14 | 64% | $5,614.07 | $1,277.62 | 23% | |
| 12 | 17 | 12 | 71% | $3,962.87 | $287.40 | 7% | |
| 1 | 18 | 8 | 44% | $3,949.19 | -$254.39 | -6% | |
| 2 | 16 | 11 | 69% | $3,433.45 | $1,697.79 | 49% | |
| 3 | 21 | 11 | 52% | $5,074.63 | $253.10 | 5% | |
| 4 | 4 | 1 | 25% | $897.33 | -$539.25 | -60% |
Totals betting
Unders is where the majority of the profit has come from, making 19% ROI from 367 bets. Little patterns show up in the totals line, however looking at the overlays is interesting. The greater the overlay for unders betting, the greater the profit, which is what we hope for in an accurate model. However when betting the Overs, it appears that the greatest overlays of 30%+ have produced a loss. This alone is probably the reason why Overs betting has not been as profitable as betting the unders. Why this has occurred, could be random variation due to a small sample size, or perhaps the model is missing some information that could make it more accurate. Either way, the results are amazing, and history has suggested that the first few weeks are where a lot of the profits come from.
| #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 358 | 195 | 54% | $70,054.20 | $1,538.94 | 2% | |
| Under | 367 | 212 | 58% | $63,336.00 | $11,952.89 | 19% | |
| Line | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 140 | 150 | 28 | 10 | 36% | $4,854.77 | -$1,063.38 | -22% |
| 150 | 160 | 120 | 65 | 54% | $25,246.64 | $1,909.84 | 8% |
| 160 | 170 | 192 | 114 | 59% | $33,752.52 | $6,013.09 | 18% |
| 170 | 180 | 74 | 43 | 58% | $10,978.36 | $2,237.84 | 20% |
| 180 | 190 | 39 | 20 | 51% | $7,612.85 | $186.71 | 2% |
| 190 | 200 | 106 | 57 | 54% | $19,935.05 | -$139.89 | -1% |
| 200 | 210 | 131 | 77 | 59% | $25,949.58 | $3,041.79 | 12% |
| 210 | 220 | 34 | 21 | 62% | $4,972.20 | $1,394.06 | 28% |
| 220 | 230 | 1 | 0 | 0% | $88.23 | -$88.23 | -100% |
| Over | Line | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 140 | 150 | 19 | 8 | 42% | $3,681.41 | -$744.04 | -20% |
| 150 | 160 | 77 | 38 | 49% | $16,878.87 | -$531.78 | -3% |
| 160 | 170 | 100 | 62 | 62% | $17,379.41 | $3,595.75 | 21% |
| 170 | 180 | 23 | 11 | 48% | $3,198.14 | -$61.50 | -2% |
| 180 | 190 | 24 | 10 | 42% | $5,138.44 | -$737.88 | -14% |
| 190 | 200 | 59 | 29 | 49% | $12,380.53 | -$1,451.26 | -12% |
| 200 | 210 | 45 | 30 | 67% | $9,752.79 | $801.52 | 8% |
| 210 | 220 | 11 | 7 | 64% | $1,644.61 | $668.13 | 41% |
| 220 | 230 | 0 | 0 | #DIV/0! | $- | $- | #DIV/0! |
| Under | Line | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 140 | 150 | 9 | 2 | 22% | $1,173.36 | -$319.34 | -27% |
| 150 | 160 | 43 | 27 | 63% | $8,367.77 | $2,441.62 | 29% |
| 160 | 170 | 92 | 52 | 57% | $16,373.11 | $2,417.34 | 15% |
| 170 | 180 | 51 | 32 | 63% | $7,780.22 | $2,299.34 | 30% |
| 180 | 190 | 15 | 10 | 67% | $2,474.41 | $924.59 | 37% |
| 190 | 200 | 47 | 28 | 60% | $7,554.52 | $1,311.37 | 17% |
| 200 | 210 | 86 | 47 | 55% | $16,196.79 | $2,240.27 | 14% |
| 210 | 220 | 23 | 14 | 61% | $3,327.59 | $725.93 | 22% |
| 220 | 230 | 1 | 0 | 0% | $88.23 | -$88.23 | -100% |
| Overlay | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 0 | 0.075 | 108 | 54 | 50% | $7,234.10 | -$241.08 | -3% |
| 0.075 | 0.1 | 84 | 46 | 55% | $7,762.83 | $553.23 | 7% |
| 0.1 | 0.125 | 91 | 53 | 58% | $10,883.14 | $1,334.16 | 12% |
| 0.125 | 0.15 | 80 | 48 | 60% | $11,514.59 | $2,008.13 | 17% |
| 0.15 | 0.175 | 60 | 35 | 58% | $10,368.02 | $1,403.76 | 14% |
| 0.175 | 0.2 | 55 | 34 | 62% | $10,807.65 | $2,130.31 | 20% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 92 | 55 | 60% | $21,596.45 | $4,137.69 | 19% |
| 0.25 | 0.3 | 69 | 40 | 58% | $20,008.00 | $2,676.68 | 13% |
| 0.3 | 20 | 86 | 42 | 49% | $33,215.42 | -$511.05 | -2% |
| Over | Overlay | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 0 | 0.075 | 53 | 26 | 49% | $3,557.16 | -$178.15 | -5% |
| 0.075 | 0.1 | 34 | 21 | 62% | $3,111.32 | $658.25 | 21% |
| 0.1 | 0.125 | 43 | 25 | 58% | $5,161.02 | $664.68 | 13% |
| 0.125 | 0.15 | 31 | 20 | 65% | $4,412.08 | $1,210.06 | 27% |
| 0.15 | 0.175 | 25 | 15 | 60% | $4,331.04 | $755.70 | 17% |
| 0.175 | 0.2 | 29 | 16 | 55% | $5,647.87 | $421.00 | 7% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 48 | 27 | 56% | $11,400.17 | $1,355.39 | 12% |
| 0.25 | 0.3 | 46 | 25 | 54% | $13,339.65 | $664.73 | 5% |
| 0.3 | 20 | 49 | 20 | 41% | $19,093.89 | -$4,012.72 | -21% |
| Under | Overlay | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 0 | 0.075 | 55 | 28 | 51% | $3,676.94 | -$62.93 | -2% |
| 0.075 | 0.1 | 50 | 25 | 50% | $4,651.51 | -$105.02 | -2% |
| 0.1 | 0.125 | 48 | 28 | 58% | $5,722.12 | $669.48 | 12% |
| 0.125 | 0.15 | 49 | 28 | 57% | $7,102.51 | $798.07 | 11% |
| 0.15 | 0.175 | 35 | 20 | 57% | $6,036.98 | $648.06 | 11% |
| 0.175 | 0.2 | 26 | 18 | 69% | $5,159.78 | $1,709.31 | 33% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 44 | 28 | 64% | $10,196.28 | $2,782.30 | 27% |
| 0.25 | 0.3 | 23 | 15 | 65% | $6,668.35 | $2,011.95 | 30% |
| 0.3 | 20 | 37 | 22 | 59% | $14,121.53 | $3,501.67 | 25% |
| Month | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 9 | 24 | 16 | 67% | $4,968.24 | $1,175.24 | 24% | |
| 10 | 118 | 70 | 59% | $25,008.79 | $3,721.82 | 15% | |
| 11 | 139 | 72 | 52% | $28,996.50 | $2,808.09 | 10% | |
| 12 | 133 | 72 | 54% | $22,791.83 | -$1,132.12 | -5% | |
| 1 | 134 | 74 | 55% | $22,107.43 | $2,276.97 | 10% | |
| 2 | 107 | 60 | 56% | $18,128.21 | $2,712.03 | 15% | |
| 3 | 57 | 32 | 56% | $9,668.98 | $884.88 | 9% | |
| 4 | 13 | 11 | 85% | $1,720.22 | $1,044.92 | 61% | |
| Over | Month | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 9 | 14 | 7 | 50% | $2,824.11 | -$511.34 | -18% | |
| 10 | 57 | 31 | 54% | $14,146.96 | -$112.03 | -1% | |
| 11 | 76 | 38 | 50% | $16,105.34 | -$71.21 | 0% | |
| 12 | 56 | 32 | 57% | $11,317.92 | -$395.94 | -3% | |
| 1 | 59 | 34 | 58% | $9,691.62 | $1,816.92 | 19% | |
| 2 | 56 | 31 | 55% | $9,496.59 | $968.38 | 10% | |
| 3 | 36 | 19 | 53% | $5,896.20 | -$192.51 | -3% | |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | $575.46 | $36.67 | 6% | |
| Under | Month | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 9 | 10 | 9 | 90% | $2,144.13 | $1,686.58 | 79% | |
| 10 | 61 | 39 | 64% | $10,861.83 | $3,833.85 | 35% | |
| 11 | 63 | 34 | 54% | $12,891.16 | $2,879.30 | 22% | |
| 12 | 77 | 40 | 52% | $11,473.91 | -$736.18 | -6% | |
| 1 | 75 | 40 | 53% | $12,415.81 | $460.05 | 4% | |
| 2 | 51 | 29 | 57% | $8,631.62 | $1,743.65 | 20% | |
| 3 | 21 | 13 | 62% | $3,772.78 | $1,077.39 | 29% | |
| 4 | 9 | 8 | 89% | $1,144.76 | $1,008.25 | 88% |
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