AFL Football is Back
AFL Football is back, and this Thursday kicks off the start of the AFL season with Carlton playing Richmond.
But of course, the big news is is that Sportpunter will once again be releasing top quality sports predictions for every single game. AFL is arguably Sportpunter’s best model and the results speak for themselves. As shown here, we have been predicting AFL since 1999 and have averaged 11.2% ROI. The last two years, and three of the last four years have averaged over 20% ROI. 2010 was the most profitable year since we started betting and so there is no reason why the results will not, once again, come in our favour.
Currently we have the season predictions up on the website with probability of premiership, final 4, final 8 and wooden spoon. We also believe we have a good grasp on the new team Gold Coast who enter the competition fresh this year.
If ever you are going to join up to a Sportpunter model, then the AFL model is the one! Even if you don’t understand anything about AFL football in Australia, simply just follow the bets as suggested and watch the profits come in.
To sign up or view the prices to Sportpunter’s AFL Model in 2011 click here.
Shown below is a full analysis of how the AFL Model has gone. It shows that betting on home teams does better than betting on teams playing away. It also seems to be profitable in all sorts of probability and odds ranges. Whats more, is that the greater the overlay, the greater the profit, with over 20% ROI being made when the overlay is greater than 40%. A minimum overlay of 7.5%, instead of the standard 5% could be a reasonable alternative.
Prob #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 7 0 0.0% $111.18 -$111.18 -100.0%
0.1 0.2 58 6 10.3% $2,528.65 $634.23 25.1%
0.2 0.3 130 32 24.6% $8,992.28 $2,059.84 22.9%
0.3 0.4 197 65 33.0% $19,927.51 $3,877.75 19.5%
0.4 0.5 201 88 43.8% $26,281.72 $4,551.84 17.3%
0.5 0.6 263 134 51.0% $43,517.53 $4,360.87 10.0%
0.6 0.7 246 133 54.1% $51,745.34 $338.76 0.7%
0.7 0.8 212 154 72.6% $58,648.92 $9,756.58 16.6%
0.8 0.9 129 107 82.9% $49,961.75 $7,750.18 15.5%
0.9 1 20 19 95.0% $11,086.78 $1,236.91 11.2%
1463 738 50.4% $272,801.67 $34,455.78 12.6%
Odds #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
1 1.4 123 106 86.2% $42,406.54 $4,629.21 10.9%
1.4 1.6 159 116 73.0% $43,970.40 $5,310.43 12.1%
1.6 1.8 178 117 65.7% $41,173.59 $7,444.07 18.1%
1.8 2 150 81 54.0% $29,814.39 $653.78 2.2%
2 2.2 122 67 54.9% $21,850.79 $3,084.80 14.1%
2.2 2.5 145 69 47.6% $25,874.51 -$427.90 -1.7%
2.5 3 139 65 46.8% $20,236.77 $7,007.44 34.6%
3 3.5 121 41 33.9% $15,804.68 $2,594.31 16.4%
3.5 5 178 52 29.2% $20,038.19 $1,990.83 9.9%
5 20 148 24 16.2% $11,631.81 $2,168.80 18.6%
1463 738 50.4% $272,801.67 $34,455.78 12.6%
Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 192 107 55.7% $24,292.16 -$570.58 -2.3%
0.075 0.1 180 114 63.3% $24,788.55 $3,607.46 14.6%
0.1 0.125 141 84 59.6% $24,597.76 $3,781.07 15.4%
0.125 0.15 128 71 55.5% $23,160.13 $1,286.12 5.6%
0.15 0.2 197 110 55.8% $36,976.66 $6,477.74 17.5%
0.2 0.25 128 58 45.3% $24,002.37 $2,974.78 12.4%
0.25 0.3 131 62 47.3% $30,027.60 $2,952.85 9.8%
0.3 0.4 152 57 37.5% $34,848.27 $1,368.33 3.9%
0.4 0.6 135 52 38.5% $31,108.35 $8,733.69 28.1%
0.6 3 79 23 29.1% $18,999.83 $3,844.32 20.2%
1463 738 50.4% $272,801.67 $34,455.78 12.6%
Home
Prob #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 0 0 #DIV/0! $- $- #DIV/0!
0.1 0.2 14 0 0.0% $689.66 -$689.66 -100.0%
0.2 0.3 50 13 26.0% $3,606.15 $768.37 21.3%
0.3 0.4 76 29 38.2% $7,694.03 $4,324.32 56.2%
0.4 0.5 86 40 46.5% $11,122.11 $3,254.22 29.3%
0.5 0.6 142 76 53.5% $24,329.86 $3,834.27 15.8%
0.6 0.7 152 89 58.6% $31,129.02 $2,105.66 6.8%
0.7 0.8 133 100 75.2% $37,333.19 $7,439.33 19.9%
0.8 0.9 103 87 84.5% $39,923.92 $6,772.12 17.0%
0.9 1 19 18 94.7% $10,494.24 $1,118.40 10.7%
775 452 58.3% $166,322.18 $28,927.03 17.4%
Odds #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
1 1.4 103 89 86.4% $36,625.25 $3,924.39 10.7%
1.4 1.6 102 81 79.4% $29,683.10 $6,352.59 21.4%
1.6 1.8 115 79 68.7% $26,225.43 $6,542.39 24.9%
1.8 2 94 52 55.3% $19,231.55 -$182.16 -0.9%
2 2.2 63 38 60.3% $12,502.79 $3,555.62 28.4%
2.2 2.5 65 28 43.1% $11,954.11 -$1,357.34 -11.4%
2.5 3 68 36 52.9% $10,051.86 $5,249.57 52.2%
3 3.5 52 19 36.5% $8,115.58 $1,976.58 24.4%
3.5 5 65 22 33.8% $7,524.30 $2,566.46 34.1%
5 20 48 8 16.7% $4,408.22 $298.94 6.8%
775 452 58.3% $166,322.18 $28,927.03 17.4%
Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 113 71 62.8% $18,536.18 -$143.42 -0.8%
0.075 0.1 105 77 73.3% $16,472.33 $3,526.09 21.4%
0.1 0.125 80 51 63.8% $16,662.98 $2,240.83 13.4%
0.125 0.15 72 44 61.1% $15,365.13 $1,452.47 9.5%
0.15 0.2 100 61 61.0% $22,220.94 $3,786.94 17.0%
0.2 0.25 68 38 55.9% $15,241.93 $3,822.44 25.1%
0.25 0.3 65 38 58.5% $17,184.99 $4,080.20 23.7%
0.3 0.4 71 31 43.7% $18,672.07 $1,943.73 10.4%
0.4 0.6 66 31 47.0% $17,003.27 $7,270.56 42.8%
0.6 3 35 10 28.6% $8,962.36 $947.19 10.6%
775 452 58.3% $166,322.18 $28,927.03 17.4%
Away
Prob #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 7 0 0.0% $111.18 -$111.18 -100.0%
0.1 0.2 44 6 13.6% $1,838.99 $1,323.88 72.0%
0.2 0.3 80 19 23.8% $5,386.13 $1,291.47 24.0%
0.3 0.4 121 36 29.8% $12,233.48 -$446.57 -3.7%
0.4 0.5 115 48 41.7% $15,159.61 $1,297.62 8.6%
0.5 0.6 121 58 47.9% $19,187.67 $526.60 2.7%
0.6 0.7 94 44 46.8% $20,616.31 -$1,766.90 -8.6%
0.7 0.8 79 54 68.4% $21,315.74 $2,317.25 10.9%
0.8 0.9 26 20 76.9% $10,037.83 $978.06 9.7%
0.9 1 1 1 100.0% $592.54 $118.51 20.0%
688 286 41.6% $106,479.48 $5,528.75 5.2%
Odds #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
1 1.4 20 17 85.0% $5,781.28 $704.82 12.2%
1.4 1.6 57 35 61.4% $14,287.30 -$1,042.16 -7.3%
1.6 1.8 63 38 60.3% $14,948.16 $901.68 6.0%
1.8 2 56 29 51.8% $10,582.84 $835.93 7.9%
2 2.2 59 29 49.2% $9,348.00 -$470.81 -5.0%
2.2 2.5 80 41 51.3% $13,920.40 $929.44 6.7%
2.5 3 71 29 40.8% $10,184.90 $1,757.87 17.3%
3 3.5 69 22 31.9% $7,689.11 $617.74 8.0%
3.5 5 113 30 26.5% $12,513.89 -$575.62 -4.6%
5 20 100 16 16.0% $7,223.59 $1,869.87 25.9%
688 286 41.6% $106,479.48 $5,528.75 5.2%
Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 79 36 45.6% $5,755.98 -$427.15 -7.4%
0.075 0.1 75 37 49.3% $8,316.22 $81.36 1.0%
0.1 0.125 61 33 54.1% $7,934.78 $1,540.24 19.4%
0.125 0.15 56 27 48.2% $7,795.00 -$166.35 -2.1%
0.15 0.2 97 49 50.5% $14,755.72 $2,690.80 18.2%
0.2 0.25 60 20 33.3% $8,760.44 -$847.65 -9.7%
0.25 0.3 66 24 36.4% $12,842.61 -$1,127.36 -8.8%
0.3 0.4 81 26 32.1% $16,176.20 -$575.40 -3.6%
0.4 0.6 69 21 30.4% $14,105.07 $1,463.13 10.4%
0.6 3 44 13 29.5% $10,037.47 $2,897.14 28.9%
688 286 41.6% $106,479.48 $5,528.75 5.2%
