NHL analysis 2010/11
The NHL season for 2010/2011 is due to start this Thursday on October the 6th, and we thought we’d do some analysis on how we did last year.
As shown fro the official betting history, we made a very nice 5.8% ROI over the season. The playoffs let us down betting the totals, and we will analyse how we did betting in the regular season.
The following are the results for the whole season. Records differ from that as given by the official betting history a little bit due to some technical errors, however the main analysis of certain overlays and trends should still be able to be referenced.
TOTALS
Overs #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
5 87 40 46% $9,279.86 $501.41 5%
5.5 117 58 50% $8,695.33 $538.52 6%
6 7 2 29% $597.07 -$143.11 -24%
TOTAL 211 100 47% $18,572.26 $896.83 4.8%
Unders #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
4.5 0 0 $- $-
5 4 2 50% $304.57 $239.99 79%
5.5 91 48 53% $7,260.11 $575.77 8%
6 3 2 67% $247.27 $102.38 41%
TOTAL 98 52 53% $7,811.95 $918.14 11.8%
Overlay Over+Under #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
5.0% 6.5% 100 50 50% $5,881.86 $427.57 7%
6.5% 8.0% 70 36 51% $5,015.49 $518.52 10%
8.0% 10.0% 59 28 47% $5,549.93 $241.73 4%
10.0% 12.0% 39 17 44% $4,239.25 -$43.44 -1%
12.0% 15.0% 29 16 55% $3,742.56 $840.42 22%
15.0% 20.0% 9 5 56% $1,373.40 $225.24 16%
20.0% 500.0% 3 0 0% $581.71 -$395.07 -68%
TOTAL 309 152 49% $26,384.21 $1,814.96 6.9%
Overlay Over #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
5.0% 6.5% 61 30 49% $3,594.30 $273.89 8%
6.5% 8.0% 47 24 51% $3,387.90 $356.30 11%
8.0% 10.0% 42 21 50% $3,963.78 $529.60 13%
10.0% 12.0% 31 12 39% $3,423.41 -$291.94 -9%
12.0% 15.0% 20 9 45% $2,570.78 $180.69 7%
15.0% 20.0% 8 4 50% $1,228.21 $65.54 5%
20.0% 500.0% 2 0 0% $403.88 -$217.25 -54%
TOTAL 211 100 47% $18,572.26 $896.83 4.8%
Overlay Under #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
5.0% 6.5% 39 20 51% $2,287.56 $153.68 7%
6.5% 8.0% 23 12 52% $1,627.59 $162.22 10%
8.0% 10.0% 17 7 41% $1,586.15 -$287.87 -18%
10.0% 12.0% 8 5 63% $815.84 $248.49 30%
12.0% 15.0% 9 7 78% $1,171.78 $659.73 56%
15.0% 20.0% 1 1 100% $145.19 $159.71 110%
20.0% 500.0% 1 0 0% $177.83 -$177.83 -100%
TOTAL 98 52 53% $7,811.95 $918.14 11.8%
Profits show a greater return for betting the unders bets than the overs. In fact an incredible 11.8% ROI was made betting the unders, and a very respectable 4.8% ROI was made betting the overs. Profits were made in general betting all lines for totals, however note that almost all the bets were made betting the at the line of 5.5. There were almost twice as many over bets as under bets which is surprising.
The minimum overlay of 5% seems to be justified here, with profits being relatively consistent. There were 3 bets with 20%+ overlays all of which lost, however I doubt much can be looked at into this.
All in all, it looks like, if 2011/2012 is anything like the previous year then we should be in for a very good season indeed. Analysis into the last five or so years, which should give us a broader range of analysis will be shown tomorrow.
If you want to subscribe to Sportpunter’s NHL model in 2011/2012 or if you simply wish to view the prices, then click here.
