Soccer model performance in relation to league level
On request, I decided to analyse how the soccer model has gone in the past 365 days with relation to the quality of the league. I have deicded to group the soccer leagues in terms of 5 groups, from 1 being the best most popular and more professional group, to 5 being the least popular and least professional.
Some of the leagues I will admit are in the wrong place, and there will always be debate about what leagues go in which groups, but for the meantime these will be them.
Group1:
england1
england2
france1
germany1
italy1
netherlands1
portugal1
scotland1
spain1
Group2:
austria1
belgium1
croatia1
czechia1
england3
england4
france2
germany2
greece1
ireland1
italy2
netherlands2
norway1
poland1
portugal2
scotland2
slovenia1
spain2
sweden1
switzerland1
turkey1
Group3:
argentina1
australia1
austria2
belgium2
czechia2
denmark1
england5
finland1
france3
greece2
iceland1
israel1
japan1
mexico1
norway2
poland2
russia1
scotland3
slovakia1
turkey2
usa1
wales1
Group4:
chile1
finland2
hungary1
latvia1
lithuania1
romania1
scotland4
sweden2
ukraine1
uruguay1
Group5:
ecuador1
estonia1
peru1
singapore1
And based on the above, here is how we have done in h2h betting over the past 365 days:
| Grade | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1904 | 575 | 30.2% | $168,526.83 | $2,729.20 | 1.6% |
| 2 | 3620 | 1186 | 32.8% | $357,051.03 | $10,794.94 | 3.0% |
| 3 | 2946 | 951 | 32.3% | $297,795.85 | $20,900.42 | 7.0% |
| 4 | 1129 | 407 | 36.0% | $123,937.23 | $18,421.95 | 14.9% |
| 5 | 331 | 135 | 40.8% | $53,637.42 | $11,414.58 | 21.3% |
What is pretty clear from the above, is that as the grade becomes worse off, the %ROI becomes greater and greater. Profits are found in all groups which is pleasing, but less so in the more professional grades, which is, where you are able to bet more as well.
This makes sense to me. Lower, less followed grades probably dont have a lot of information are not studies as much as the top grades. Furthermore, the discrepancy between the best player in the team and worst player in the team is greater for the higher leagues than the lower leagues. This means that should a teams best player be missing in the lower grades, it will not make as much difference as it would the better leagues.
But still, profits in all groups is really good to see. As far as totals betting goes, the following are the results:
| Grade | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 908 | 460 | 50.7% | $121,616.32 | $8,117.31 | 6.7% |
| 2 | 2645 | 1278 | 48.3% | $340,618.51 | $11,060.87 | 3.2% |
| 3 | 2366 | 1163 | 49.2% | $320,316.32 | $16,189.48 | 5.1% |
| 4 | 1160 | 564 | 48.6% | $157,177.02 | $9,784.38 | 6.2% |
| 5 | 236 | 121 | 51.3% | $33,747.91 | $1,245.17 | 3.7% |
Better results here, with the totals results being spread relatively even amongst all the leagues. This is great news, and it tells me that the soccer totals model is basically spot on. The great records over the past few weeks has helped greatly.
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Interesting results. I expected something like that with the H2H but didn’t expect the o/u results to be so consistent across the leagues. Unfortunately its a bit tricky to find odds on some of the lesser leagues but very nice results overall!