NBA Sports Betting Model

Sportpunter are about to release predictions for NBA with a brand new sports model.

NBA is one of the most bet sports in the world and with many games being played every day, the possibility of high turnover is great. Bookies will generally offer lines of 1.95 and better and liquidity isn’t regularly a major problem.

We have analysed the last 4 years of data using hold out samples of every year, and the following are the results. Keep in mind that this is the very early stages of the model. There are still plenty of other variables that we will be adding to it over the course of the season, but I’ve decided to release the predictions now as the season starts tonight (26/10/10).

And so now onto the analysis:

Line Betting

Overlay		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	463	218	47.1%	$    30,579.81	-$      2,670.33	-8.7%
0.075	0.1	411	196	47.7%	$    37,544.81	-$      2,397.97	-6.4%
0.1	0.125	415	204	49.2%	$    49,046.83	-$      1,630.20	-3.3%
0.125	0.15	363	173	47.7%	$    52,293.83	-$      3,440.39	-6.6%
0.15	0.175	324	142	43.8%	$    55,308.76	-$      7,361.34	-13.3%
0.175	0.2	271	151	55.7%	$    53,334.85	$      4,682.80	8.8%
0.2	0.25	482	245	50.8%	$  113,096.65	-$            41.62	0.0%
0.25	0.3	325	164	50.5%	$    93,989.38	-$         952.13	-1.0%
0.3	0.4	333	169	50.8%	$  120,960.89	-$      1,976.26	-1.6%
0.4	1	215	113	52.6%	$  107,136.50	$      2,569.09	2.4%
		3602	1775	49.3%	$  713,292.32	-$   13,218.34	-1.9%

So not that great results. However with a minimum 17.5% overlay a 0.9% ROI was made. But still a small profit.

Shown below is match number for line betting:

Match#		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	10	723	687	95.0%	$     16,417.84	-$   1,118.60	-6.8%
10	20	479	254	53.0%	$   101,078.79	$    2,644.10	2.6%
20	30	453	256	56.5%	$     91,347.35	$    5,119.21	5.6%
30	40	436	214	49.1%	$     82,024.54	-$   2,254.54	-2.7%
40	50	400	203	50.8%	$     70,212.27	-$   2,386.61	-3.4%
50	60	411	219	53.3%	$     71,438.12	-$       850.71	-1.2%
60	70	428	197	46.0%	$     73,903.51	-$   7,315.95	-9.9%
70	80	436	238	54.6%	$     69,936.70	-$   1,993.13	-2.8%
80	90	448	236	52.7%	$     89,485.02	$    1,148.05	1.3%
90	5000	340	223	65.6%	$     47,448.16	-$   6,210.17	-13.1%
		4554	2727	59.9%	$   713,292.32	-$ 13,218.34	-1.9%

So early matches is does well, whilst struggling from match 30 (of each team) and onwards. Using a 17.5% ROI min. overlay this is shown below

Match#, Overlay>=0.175		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	10	35	17	48.6%	$     11,991.91	-$       802.19	-6.7%
10	20	236	128	54.2%	$     75,562.74	$    4,164.97	5.5%
20	30	222	121	54.5%	$     67,222.83	$    3,491.21	5.2%
30	40	186	100	53.8%	$     55,030.50	$    1,811.21	3.3%
40	50	147	75	51.0%	$     42,253.13	-$       552.74	-1.3%
50	60	163	84	51.5%	$     46,545.70	$        479.45	1.0%
60	70	166	77	46.4%	$     45,366.55	-$   3,476.44	-7.7%
70	80	155	84	54.2%	$     43,973.47	$    1,267.82	2.9%
80	90	198	104	52.5%	$     65,387.43	$    3,750.64	5.7%
90	5000	118	52	44.1%	$     35,184.01	-$   5,852.05	-16.6%
		1626	842	51.8%	$   488,518.27	$    4,281.89	0.9%

This shows better results, and reasonable profits throughout the season until the final matches. Presumably, these are the playoffs where it doesn’t do as well. So it makes 2.2% ROI without the final end of the season. I’m not sure however as this stage, why this is the case.

TOTALS

Overlay		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	507	247	48.7%	$    33,237.67	-$      1,282.57	-3.9%
0.075	0.1	454	218	48.0%	$    41,579.86	-$      1,827.24	-4.4%
0.1	0.125	388	195	50.3%	$    45,877.17	-$         890.34	-1.9%
0.125	0.15	415	218	52.5%	$    60,085.24	$      2,303.57	3.8%
0.15	0.175	332	148	44.6%	$    56,212.59	-$      6,722.61	-12.0%
0.175	0.2	288	149	51.7%	$    56,821.42	$      2,390.14	4.2%
0.2	0.25	438	225	51.4%	$  102,933.24	$      2,437.00	2.4%
0.25	0.3	280	149	53.2%	$    80,059.75	$      4,300.85	5.4%
0.3	0.4	257	137	53.3%	$    92,639.37	$      5,186.56	5.6%
0.4	1	118	62	52.5%	$    60,841.90	$      3,144.00	5.2%
		3477	1748	50.3%	$  630,288.21	$      9,039.36	1.4%

Better results with totals, with 1.4% ROI being made, and a 4.4% ROI being made with overlays 17.5%+ which equates to about 345 bets a year.

Match#		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	10	731	691	94.5%	$     18,563.54	-$       654.80	-3.5%
10	20	464	260	56.0%	$   100,121.97	$  11,777.17	11.8%
20	30	413	220	53.3%	$     73,884.28	$    4,041.46	5.5%
30	40	400	193	48.3%	$     69,437.21	-$       470.12	-0.7%
40	50	400	197	49.3%	$     74,868.48	$        741.11	1.0%
50	60	403	199	49.4%	$     67,550.22	$    2,126.65	3.1%
60	70	385	196	50.9%	$     66,644.49	-$       997.44	-1.5%
70	80	417	220	52.8%	$     66,179.22	-$   1,887.76	-2.9%
80	90	415	211	50.8%	$     63,349.98	-$   4,580.94	-7.2%
90	5000	320	207	64.7%	$     36,933.73	-$   1,664.59	-4.5%
		4348	2594	59.7%	$   637,533.11	$    8,430.73	1.3%

Results show great results early, with great profits being made up to around match 60, 2/3rds of the year. Results drop off in the latter half of the season, similar to line betting. With min 17.5%+ overlay as shown below, results are improved a little and a profit was even made for betting in the playoffs. I don’t think one can read too much into below because of the smaller sample size, but results for totals seems promising.

Match#, Overlay>=0.175		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	10	45	23	51.1%	$     14,328.68	-$       658.90	-4.6%
10	20	234	135	57.7%	$     73,876.11	$  10,425.28	14.1%
20	30	168	88	52.4%	$     46,446.51	$    3,509.33	7.6%
30	40	144	72	50.0%	$     39,222.07	$        405.70	1.0%
40	50	167	90	53.9%	$     48,856.41	$    2,866.70	5.9%
50	60	142	83	58.5%	$     38,072.68	$    5,520.38	14.5%
60	70	144	68	47.2%	$     39,584.95	-$   2,141.00	-5.4%
70	80	137	66	48.2%	$     37,877.87	-$       842.00	-2.2%
80	90	130	63	48.5%	$     35,048.44	-$   1,940.56	-5.5%
90	5000	84	42	50.0%	$     23,973.62	$        647.61	2.7%
		1395	730	52.3%	$   397,287.34	$  17,792.54	4.5%