A bit more NBA analysis
Shown below is a bit more NBA analysis with regards to line betting for away and home teams.
This is the models suggested bets over the past few years. “AwayLine” refers to betting on the away team at the following line (the line for the away team), whilst “HomeLine” refers to betting on the home team at the line (the away line).
Confusing yes, but it just means betting the home or away team.
There’s not a lot to make of it which is a shame, higher prices overlays on away favourites seem to have done particularly good.
Line #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
-50 -5 405 181 44.7% $74,670.72 -$9,860.37 -13.2%
-5 -2 441 228 51.7% $77,170.80 -$3,040.56 -3.9%
-2 0 220 119 54.1% $40,907.01 $3,896.33 9.5%
0 1 748 748 100.0% $- $- #DIV/0!
1 3 364 186 51.1% $61,225.07 -$3,924.02 -6.4%
3 5 524 299 57.1% $91,641.80 $7,304.90 8.0%
5 7 584 316 54.1% $105,507.33 -$2,917.56 -2.8%
7 9 486 242 49.8% $94,316.71 -$7,744.10 -8.2%
9 12 482 262 54.4% $100,812.71 $3,491.41 3.5%
12 50 300 146 48.7% $67,040.16 -$424.36 -0.6%
4554 2727 59.9% $713,292.32 -$13,218.34 -1.9%
AwayLine #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
-50 -5 144 64 44.4% $20,687.88 -$1,596.41 -7.7%
-5 -2 223 115 51.6% $37,883.63 -$476.98 -1.3%
-2 0 118 65 55.1% $21,133.10 $1,541.78 7.3%
0 1 374 374 100.0% $- $- #DIV/0!
1 3 197 101 51.3% $33,964.80 -$1,703.13 -5.0%
3 5 333 180 54.1% $60,577.68 $1,167.36 1.9%
5 7 420 217 51.7% $82,932.90 -$4,464.32 -5.4%
7 9 355 176 49.6% $76,077.98 -$4,987.75 -6.6%
9 12 349 187 53.6% $82,160.84 $1,070.51 1.3%
12 50 229 117 51.1% $56,589.09 $1,016.77 1.8%
2742 1596 58.2% $472,007.91 -$8,432.17 -1.8%
HomeLine #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
-50 -5 261 117 44.8% $53,982.85 -$8,263.96 -15.3%
-5 -2 218 113 51.8% $39,287.17 -$2,563.58 -6.5%
-2 0 102 54 52.9% $19,773.91 $2,354.55 11.9%
0 1 374 374 100.0% $- $- #DIV/0!
1 3 167 85 50.9% $27,260.28 -$2,220.89 -8.1%
3 5 191 119 62.3% $31,064.12 $6,137.54 19.8%
5 7 164 99 60.4% $22,574.42 $1,546.76 6.9%
7 9 131 66 50.4% $18,238.73 -$2,756.35 -15.1%
9 12 133 75 56.4% $18,651.87 $2,420.89 13.0%
12 50 71 29 40.8% $10,451.07 -$1,441.13 -13.8%
1812 1131 62.4% $241,284.41 -$4,786.17 -2.0%
AwayLine Overlay>=17.5% #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
-50 -5 35 21 60.0% $9,055.66 $1,697.94 18.8%
-5 -2 80 42 52.5% $22,606.92 $745.54 3.3%
-2 0 51 28 54.9% $13,970.46 $1,600.46 11.5%
0 1 0 0 #DIV/0! $- $- #DIV/0!
1 3 73 35 47.9% $21,704.58 -$877.38 -4.0%
3 5 132 76 57.6% $40,295.24 $3,799.76 9.4%
5 7 214 105 49.1% $61,731.76 -$3,286.60 -5.3%
7 9 196 99 50.5% $58,811.50 -$2,352.06 -4.0%
9 12 195 100 51.3% $64,458.72 -$746.31 -1.2%
12 50 133 71 53.4% $45,018.08 $2,269.83 5.0%
1109 577 52.0% $337,652.91 $2,851.19 0.8%
HomeLine Overlay>=17.5% #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
-50 -5 121 55 45.5% $38,137.68 -$5,483.86 -14.4%
-5 -2 89 42 47.2% $26,338.09 -$2,438.52 -9.3%
-2 0 41 27 65.9% $13,108.17 $3,846.26 29.3%
0 1 0 0 #DIV/0! $- $- #DIV/0!
1 3 64 29 45.3% $17,547.38 -$1,087.02 -6.2%
3 5 68 43 63.2% $19,738.55 $5,543.05 28.1%
5 7 42 24 57.1% $12,244.18 $1,502.44 12.3%
7 9 38 17 44.7% $9,911.26 -$1,321.39 -13.3%
9 12 36 20 55.6% $9,077.54 $1,335.39 14.7%
12 50 18 8 44.4% $4,762.50 -$465.66 -9.8%
517 265 51.3% $150,865.36 $1,430.70 0.9%
I love this analyses!
And by the way – analysis of NBA over/under would be great as Unders probably outperform Overs.