Best and Worst list 2009: Tennis Model
Our tennis model has had great success over the past 12 months, despite a small lapse of late. And it’s sometimes in these lapses that you start to ponder w
hat players you love to bet on and which ones you love to bet against. It’s also times like these that you start hating betting on certain players who seem so inconsistent that you wonder if they are stressing about the match as much as you. On occasions it feels as though you have more money on the line betting the match than the actual tennis player.
As we record and post every single bet that we suggest, we have been able to look back over the data for the past year to see which 10 players on both the mens and womens tour have been the most profitable and also the least profitable to bet on. This data has been put into the simple tables below which will show how many times we have bet on that player, how successful we were with those bets and finally the profit and return on investment.
So who in the last 12 months have we loved to love and loved to hate? The details are below.
ATP Best 10
| Player | Bet | Win | %Win | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| Gilles Simon | 29 | 18 | 62.1% | $6,608.23 | $3,943.93 | 59.7% |
| Juan Monaco | 25 | 17 | 68.0% | $6,295.46 | $3,160.07 | 50.2% |
| Fabrice Santoro | 16 | 12 | 75.0% | $4,591.84 | $2,520.62 | 54.9% |
| Igor Andreev | 27 | 13 | 48.1% | $5,728.55 | $2,513.35 | 43.9% |
| Juan Martin Del Potro | 20 | 11 | 55.0% | $4,171.07 | $1,850.70 | 44.4% |
| Ivo Karlovic | 20 | 12 | 60.0% | $4,062.59 | $1,808.42 | 44.5% |
| Ivan Navarro | 14 | 12 | 85.7% | $2,703.22 | $1,777.31 | 65.7% |
| Lukasz Kubot | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | $964.70 | $1,719.38 | 178.2% |
| Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 23 | 11 | 47.8% | $4,467.72 | $1,614.72 | 36.1% |
| Daniel Brands | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | $1,159.73 | $1,462.03 | 126.1% |
Surprisingly Gilles Simon tops the list. We’ve bet on him 10 times for 6 wins, and bet against him 19 times for 12 wins. Old timer Radek Stepanek seems always to be underrated. We’ve bet on him 13 times for 9 wins, and only bet against him 3 times for 3 wins. He may be getting older, but he still has the drive. And its good to see Del Potro there as well. Everyone will remember the big bet we had on him in the US Open final against the Fed. Santiago Ventura is not on the top 10 list, but 3 wins from 3 bets on him and 4 wins from 4 bets against him puts him as one of our favourite players.
ATP Worst 10
| Player | Bet | Win | %Win | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| Tomas Berdych | 24 | 4 | 16.7% | $4,884.92 | -$2,555.09 | -52.3% |
| Jeremy Chardy | 28 | 8 | 28.6% | $5,977.05 | -$2,379.06 | -39.8% |
| Janko Tipsarevic | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | $3,661.47 | -$1,992.86 | -54.4% |
| Nicolas Almagro | 19 | 6 | 31.6% | $4,586.50 | -$1,860.63 | -40.6% |
| Robby Ginepri | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | $3,864.17 | -$1,798.70 | -46.5% |
| James Blake | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | $4,017.48 | -$1,544.05 | -38.4% |
| Marin Cilic | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | $3,160.20 | -$1,412.20 | -44.7% |
| Jose Acasuso | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | $2,414.03 | -$1,359.18 | -56.3% |
| Andreas Seppi | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | $4,025.53 | -$1,268.62 | -31.5% |
| Yen-Hsun Lu | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | $2,347.85 | -$1,250.19 | -53.2% |
As for the players we hate? Well, Tomas Berdych tops the list here. Only four bets for him for 1 win, whilst we had 20 bets against him for only 3 wins. Interestingly Ginepri is there as well. The American could really have pushed a top 10 spot, but has fallen quite a bit. We’ve in fact never bet against him in the last 12 months, but have only had 4 successful bets from 11 for him. How frustrating!
Note that three of the top players; Monaco, Navarro and Ventura are pure clay courters who rarely venture out onto other surfaces. None of the bottom 10 are like this. Good change the model bets for these guys more than normal if on the red top, and against them if not. And it pays off.
WTA Best 10
| Player | Bet | Win | %Win | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| Na Li | 24 | 21 | 87.5% | $5,814.45 | $2,627.90 | 45.2% |
| Nicole Vaidisova | 13 | 9 | 69.2% | $3,896.40 | $2,305.27 | 59.2% |
| Carla Suarez Navarro | 30 | 20 | 66.7% | $9,490.90 | $1,778.38 | 18.7% |
| Shahar Peer | 24 | 15 | 62.5% | $4,356.75 | $1,775.19 | 40.7% |
| Alize Cornet | 27 | 14 | 51.9% | $7,357.17 | $1,737.35 | 23.6% |
| Timea Bacsinszky | 8 | 8 | 100.0% | $1,921.87 | $1,670.47 | 86.9% |
| Alexandra Dulgheru | 7 | 5 | 71.4% | $1,544.05 | $1,619.66 | 104.9% |
| Nadia Petrova | 28 | 20 | 71.4% | $5,942.02 | $1,609.01 | 27.1% |
| Marta Domachowska | 10 | 7 | 70.0% | $3,470.05 | $1,538.96 | 44.3% |
| Samantha Stosur | 32 | 21 | 65.6% | $8,393.13 | $1,533.82 | 18.3% |
We’ve got Na Li down pat. check out these stats. 18 bets for her for 16 wins, and 6 bets against her for 5 wins. Amazing. Sixth on the list is Swiss player Bacsinszky, who we didn’t lose a bet on. Six from six betting for, and two from two betting against. Aussie legend Samantha Stosur just makes the cut as our 10th most favourite player.
WTA Worst 10
| Player | Bet | Win | %Win | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| Angela Haynes | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | $2,077.97 | -$1,634.06 | -78.6% |
| Severine Bremond | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | $1,621.58 | -$1,621.58 | -100.0% |
| Anna-Lena Groenefeld | 17 | 8 | 47.1% | $5,912.28 | -$1,532.02 | -25.9% |
| Jelena Jankovic | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | $3,684.48 | -$1,365.38 | -37.1% |
| Elena Vesnina | 23 | 9 | 39.1% | $4,742.56 | -$1,126.67 | -23.8% |
| Karin Knapp | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | $1,588.59 | -$1,123.62 | -70.7% |
| Ai Sugiyama | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | $2,840.87 | -$1,058.34 | -37.3% |
| Kaia Kanepi | 24 | 13 | 54.2% | $6,623.46 | -$1,045.07 | -15.8% |
| Julie Ditty | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | $1,307.32 | -$1,020.59 | -78.1% |
| Tamarine Tanasugarn | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | $2,447.99 | -$864.48 | -35.3% |
And the dark side? Five bets against Angela Haynes and all but one went down. Jelena Jankovic caused many a heartache with only one successful bet against her from eight bets, and Severine Bremond defied us all of a winning bet, either for or against her. Amelie Mauresmo just finished outside the bottom 10 in 12th place and I can think of more than one reason why I don’t really like her.
Whilst the above information might be interesting, it might also be useful. Perhaps some of the players down the bottom of the list have had injuries or engaged in recent comebacks (eg Dokic). Either way, its all useful information, that will help us make more profits with the tennis model.
Find out more about the tennis model and how to subscribe
Who is your favourite player to bet on and why? Post your comment below
I hate betting for or against Jarkko Niemen. No matter what he always seems to lose when I bet for him and crush his oppent when im against him, I like to refer to him as my jarkko nemesis
with a name like Jarkko, I can understand why!
Rainer Schuettler ..the initials say it all
Great list post. I’m not so much of a betting man but what would be the odds if I bet for Federer or Nadal (my favorites) 🙂 – i know that’s gotta be a n00b question.
See ya at pb.com…
haha, You wouldn’t have made much. Their odds have a bias as most regular gamblers will back them. I’m actually suprised we didnt see Federer in the Top 10 list, as we have had a few bets against him over the years that have produced some very nice wins. I remember one bet where we bet Volandri against him, I had just arrived in England and that one win paid for the next 6 months in the UK.
Thanks for this gr8 text. I found it through dmoz and i find it very interesting. i will look for more interesting news at this wordpress blog. (: