Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 3

We previously looked at the year 2009 for ATP tennis, but now we will look at how well the model has gone over the past 5 years (since 2005). Note that this is based on head to head betting only and not set betting. Results are found below with commentary under that.

	Prob	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.1	189	4	2.1%	$4,778.43	-$3,399.26	-71.1%
0.1	0.2	786	68	8.7%	$42,333.89	-$9,007.09	-21.3%
0.2	0.3	1349	241	17.9%	$104,173.93	-$14,307.25	-13.7%
0.3	0.4	1699	493	29.0%	$160,272.71	$19,313.19	12.1%
0.4	0.5	1821	686	37.7%	$207,648.29	$9,381.66	4.5%
0.5	0.6	1519	729	48.0%	$221,076.40	$14,297.35	6.5%
0.6	0.7	1361	798	58.6%	$213,864.96	$15,502.00	7.2%
0.7	0.8	1044	731	70.0%	$197,167.38	$5,937.79	3.0%
0.8	0.9	666	542	81.4%	$171,479.46	$13,638.93	8.0%
0.9	1	274	252	92.0%	$99,914.04	$2,128.72	2.1%
	TOTAL	10708	4544	42.4%	$1,422,709.49	$53,486.02	3.8%
	Odds	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
1	1.4	1165	976	83.8%	$248,013.75	$15,401.77	6.2%
1.4	1.7	1390	913	65.7%	$228,813.64	$5,914.79	2.6%
1.7	2	1051	591	56.2%	$148,511.56	$11,403.99	7.7%
2	2.25	806	389	48.3%	$112,618.37	-$955.62	-0.8%
2.25	2.5	833	346	41.5%	$110,795.00	$8,389.34	7.6%
2.5	3	1301	504	38.7%	$163,327.65	$16,543.76	10.1%
3	4	1473	433	29.4%	$164,852.18	$3,537.74	2.1%
4	6	1231	269	21.9%	$125,653.19	$4,389.55	3.5%
6	10	841	98	11.7%	$72,406.08	-$8,160.46	-11.3%
10	50	583	25	4.3%	$46,392.68	-$1,653.46	-3.6%
	TOTAL	10674	4544	42.6%	$1,421,384.12	$54,811.39	3.9%
	Overlay	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.05	2326	1387	59.6%	$139,661.16	$1,851.31	1.3%
0.05	0.1	1747	877	50.2%	$193,474.74	$1,648.74	0.9%
0.1	0.15	1305	636	48.7%	$181,582.29	$10,205.66	5.6%
0.15	0.2	1011	453	44.8%	$161,054.98	$12,461.96	7.7%
0.2	0.25	749	277	37.0%	$121,118.73	$231.77	0.2%
0.25	0.3	546	205	37.5%	$88,346.28	$7,665.85	8.7%
0.3	0.4	887	268	30.2%	$152,444.45	-$2,117.70	-1.4%
0.4	0.6	950	274	28.8%	$176,300.91	$21,728.61	12.3%
0.6	1	695	122	17.6%	$129,348.98	-$5,250.53	-4.1%
1	5	487	45	9.2%	$78,355.93	$6,081.39	7.8%
	TOTAL	10703	4544	42.5%	$1,421,688.45	$54,507.07	3.8%
	SP Rules
	Prob	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.1	0	0	#DIV/0!	$-	$-	#DIV/0!
0.1	0.2	0	0	#DIV/0!	$-	$-	#DIV/0!
0.2	0.3	0	0	#DIV/0!	$-	$-	#DIV/0!
0.3	0.4	733	182	24.8%	$112,098.68	$19,377.83	17.3%
0.4	0.5	600	195	32.5%	$119,527.89	$8,012.63	6.7%
0.5	0.6	1209	561	46.4%	$212,722.00	$14,413.51	6.8%
0.6	0.7	971	552	56.8%	$197,439.10	$15,505.46	7.9%
0.7	0.8	647	444	68.6%	$171,826.84	$6,641.81	3.9%
0.8	0.9	376	300	79.8%	$139,517.42	$12,795.50	9.2%
0.9	1	96	81	84.4%	$52,421.80	$919.64	1.8%
	TOTAL	4632	2315	50.0%	$1,005,553.73	$77,666.36	7.7%
	Odds	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
1	1.4	433	366	84.5%	$151,740.47	$13,919.51	9.2%
1.4	1.7	887	588	66.3%	$205,394.41	$6,139.88	3.0%
1.7	2	760	430	56.6%	$139,799.52	$11,302.77	8.1%
2	2.25	568	276	48.6%	$105,100.18	-$545.53	-0.5%
2.25	2.5	337	148	43.9%	$76,937.10	$8,671.25	11.3%
2.5	3	440	183	41.6%	$104,639.56	$13,928.57	13.3%
3	4	689	209	30.3%	$124,645.22	$5,210.46	4.2%
4	6	445	100	22.5%	$79,886.37	$3,893.37	4.9%
6	10	62	11	17.7%	$14,269.76	$2,596.95	18.2%
10	50	11	4	36.4%	$3,141.15	$12,549.13	399.5%
	TOTAL	4632	2315	50.0%	$1,005,553.73	$77,666.36	7.7%
	Overlay	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.05	0	0	#DIV/0!	$-	$-	#DIV/0!
0.05	0.1	1023	668	65.3%	$165,888.52	$4,815.73	2.9%
0.1	0.15	677	430	63.5%	$143,334.75	$7,920.38	5.5%
0.15	0.2	478	295	61.7%	$119,735.82	$11,919.80	10.0%
0.2	0.25	289	153	52.9%	$78,125.17	$2,054.73	2.6%
0.25	0.3	424	180	42.5%	$81,424.72	$6,107.46	7.5%
0.3	0.4	647	233	36.0%	$136,233.56	-$563.54	-0.4%
0.4	0.6	620	232	37.4%	$149,858.75	$23,924.03	16.0%
0.6	1	348	100	28.7%	$94,992.44	$10,412.65	11.0%
1	5	124	24	19.4%	$35,373.86	$11,661.25	33.0%
	TOTAL	4630	2315	50.0%	$1,004,967.59	$78,252.50	7.8%
	Surface
	Hard	1562	777	49.7%	$322,145.31	$20,833.36	6.5%
	Clay	1723	905	52.5%	$395,111.49	$41,832.59	10.6%
	Grass	499	248	49.7%	$123,072.38	$154.18	0.1%
	I.Hard	586	274	46.8%	$111,400.82	$12,675.63	11.4%
	Carpet	261	111	42.5%	$53,351.54	$2,642.79	5.0%
	TOTAL	4631	2315	50.0%	$1,005,081.54	$78,138.55	7.8%
Overlay Prob 20-30%	Overlay	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.05	144	42	29.2%	$1,131.33	$249.77	22.1%
0.05	0.1	131	27	20.6%	$3,010.53	-$382.22	-12.7%
0.1	0.15	116	24	20.7%	$4,166.89	-$355.90	-8.5%
0.15	0.2	105	21	20.0%	$5,040.75	-$259.84	-5.2%
0.2	0.25	92	15	16.3%	$5,331.18	-$1,175.84	-22.1%
0.25	0.3	78	22	28.2%	$5,453.54	$2,077.12	38.1%
0.3	0.4	154	28	18.2%	$12,485.84	-$621.88	-5.0%
0.4	0.6	192	33	17.2%	$19,334.24	-$53.75	-0.3%
0.6	1	192	16	8.3%	$23,909.66	-$9,593.68	-40.1%
1	100	145	13	9.0%	$24,309.98	-$4,191.06	-17.2%
	TOTAL	1349	241	17.9%	$104,173.93	-$14,307.25	-13.7%
Overlay Prob 30-40%	Overlay	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.05	221	76	34.4%	$2,714.04	$86.49	3.2%
0.05	0.1	255	86	33.7%	$9,527.28	$427.97	4.5%
0.1	0.15	192	69	35.9%	$10,927.58	$1,806.14	16.5%
0.15	0.2	146	43	29.5%	$11,077.38	-$253.71	-2.3%
0.2	0.25	152	37	24.3%	$13,927.74	-$2,131.53	-15.3%
0.25	0.3	121	37	30.6%	$12,787.59	$1,170.30	9.2%
0.3	0.4	193	48	24.9%	$24,011.70	-$1,173.60	-4.9%
0.4	0.6	189	46	24.3%	$28,301.25	$1,007.25	3.6%
0.6	1	155	35	22.6%	$29,241.76	$4,439.75	15.2%
1	100	75	16	21.3%	$17,756.39	$13,934.12	78.5%
	TOTAL	1699	493	29.0%	$160,272.71	$19,313.19	12.1%
Overlay Prob 40-50%	Overlay	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.05	310	139	44.8%	$5,897.26	$76.59	1.3%
0.05	0.1	266	87	32.7%	$14,222.59	-$3,138.70	-22.1%
0.1	0.15	260	110	42.3%	$22,166.91	$1,339.14	6.0%
0.15	0.2	215	86	40.0%	$23,488.48	$1,049.76	4.5%
0.2	0.25	170	69	40.6%	$22,345.16	$2,042.23	9.1%
0.25	0.3	120	50	41.7%	$18,121.89	$3,212.80	17.7%
0.3	0.4	179	61	34.1%	$31,314.07	$424.35	1.4%
0.4	0.6	182	53	29.1%	$37,777.43	-$845.29	-2.2%
0.6	1	82	25	30.5%	$20,660.10	$4,466.18	21.6%
1	100	37	6	16.2%	$11,654.40	$754.60	6.5%
	TOTAL	1821	686	37.7%	$207,648.29	$9,381.66	4.5%

A lot of things can be discussed here. Note that because of the “Federer Factor”, betting on tennis players with probabilities under 30% was not profitable. Likewise, bets on players with odds of 6.00 or more was not profitable, and most likely for the same reason. This same reason once again means that it is hard to distinguish between profitable bets for the overlays, as low probability players with large odds are also most likely to have a large overlay.

Better to analyse the results under SP Rules, which looks at a 5% min overlay for all probabilities greater or equal to 50%, and a minimum 25% overlay for all probabilities between 30 and 50%.

Here we get some good results. A total of 7.7% ROI is very very good. Profits are found virtually amongst all probability and odds ranges. Similarly, all overlays had a good profit. It is good to see that the %ROI increased as the overlay increased which is what we would want.

As expected grass court only barely managed to make a profit, whilst all other surfaces did very well. Previously in the forum we talked about grass court and how favourites are more likely to win. Bets perhaps should be adjusted for this, we will talk about this more soon.

When looking at the near bet probabilities of 20% to 30%, we can see that no minimum overlays are profitable. Best to leave all these alone. Even the very high 100%+ overlays have not been profitable.

When the probability is between 30% and 40%, we note that higher range overlays are indeed very profitable. One can suggest a minimum 25% of perhaps 40% overlay for probabilities in this range, which is basically the same as what has previously been suggested.

Interesting to look at is the results for when the probability is between 40% and 50%. Higher overlays generally have a greater return despite the low sample size which is good, but results show that any bet under 10% overlay is not profitable. Previously we suggested bets only when the overlay is 25% or above for this range, but it seems that a minimum of 10% or even 15% to be conservative is more accurate.

I am thinking of changing the suggested bets to be as follows based on the above information:

Prob 50%: min 5% overlay

Prob 40%-50%: min 15% overlay

Prob 30%-40%: min 25% overlay

Let us know what you think in the comments below.

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