Triple J hottest 100 2009 predictions

It’s coming around to Australia Day once again which is one of my favourite days of the year! Why? Not because I love all things Australian – which I almost do – but because I especially love alternative music.

Now I know that this is a gambling website, and I do intend on having some gambling tips in this article, but what I am really talking about is the Triple J Hottest 100.

For those who don’t live on this sunbaked island, Triple J is an alternative youth based radio station that holds the most famous countdown of the best songs of the year. You can read all about the hottest 100 here: http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/hottest100/09/ and you can even get a vote in (which helps when you are betting on the best song as well!)

In the past, I’ve done pretty good out of the hottest 100. Last year I bet strongly on Kings of Leon’s Sex on Fire which started around odds of 1.75 only to drift to 2.00. In 2007 Muse’s Knights of Cydonia only defeated favourite Silverchair’s Sraight Lines by 8 votes, and I lost a small amount on that bet.

But its been good for me in the past. In 2006, I hit on the “all others” option, believing that it was crazy the Augie March’s One Crowded Hour wasn’t listed and picked up odds of 17 to 1.

Previous years to this showed that in order to make it to the number one position, it is all about timing and commercial radio play. In 1998 when the Offspring released Pretty Fly for a White Guy (ahh-haa, ahh-haa), the song got more than twice the amount of votes as the song in second position. The song was released on November 9^th, only a month before the Hottest 100 voting began and was an instant success.

Some things die hard though, and about another month later and it was the most hated song on the radio.

Timing is everything.

Which brings me to this years list. If the voting had started and finished at the start of the year, then Lilly Allen’s Not Fair (17.00) would have easily won. Such classic lyrics and catchy tune would have won the hottest 100 by a country mile. But Allen is old hat now, and several other tunes are fresher on people’s minds. You can get 41.00 on the Gossips Heavy Cross, which would have also won had the vote been mid year. Every channel was playing this song non stop. At least 10 remixes from DJ’s wanting to jump on the wagon helped them gain more and more radio airplay. So overplayed they were that the song is virtually not played on radio today.

Similarly, everyone has forgotten that Eskimo Joe’s song Foreign land is actually votable. It was released in April and since then has long been forgotten. Sportingbet haven’t even priced them up, but the song would have been top 5 if the vote count was mid year.

Phoenix was voted by Triple J voters as the best album of the year, and despite having a few big hits from the album, all sound quite similar and don’t exactly stand out. They could well get three top 20 listings, but it is hard to see them get the number 1 spot.

Muse is second favourite (4.00) with their song Uprising. It’s their best song off the album and has had significant airplay. Muse, my favourite band of all time, released this song in early September. But interestingly, in 2007, they hit the number 1 position in the hottest 100 with Knights of Cydonia that was released at prime time – mid/late November. Arguably, Knights of Cydonia is a better song than Uprising (although not as commercially played), so Muse is not a bet for me.

Favourite to hit the number one spot is Mumford & Suns Little Lion Man which has come in massively from odds of 2.80 to 1.50. I wouldn’t have listed this song in my top 3, so a bet on them is in my opinion of little value.

So who has released their song late, that is catchy and that everybody loves? Probably the song Home by Edward Sharpe and the Magnetic Zero’s. Although the album with the song was released mid year, Home has only been played in the last few weeks. So much has this caught bookies by surprise in that bookmakers failed to price up the song, which meant that odds of 126.00 would have been available. Since then it is available at odds of 17.00 or even as short as third place favourite 6.50 at spotingbet. That is some odds movement!

I’m not sure how much commercial airplay it has received, but for me, in a no real standout Hottest 100 list, it provides the best value.

Go for The Gossip as an outsider at 41.00 and hit on Home. Two big outsiders. Don’t forget the prawns on the barbie (or my Australian speciality – Dim-sims cut in half), and don’t go easy on the beverages.

As for my top 10 songs of the year 2009? Here they are:

1. Röyksopp – The Girl and the Robot
2. Karnivool – Set Fire to the Hive
3. Silversun Pickups – Panic Switch
4. Manchester Orchestra – I’ve Got Friends
5. Doves – Kingdom of Rust
6. Muse – Uprising
7. Lilly Allen – Not Fair
8. Eskimo Joe – Foreign Land
9. La Roux – Tigerlily
10. Edward Sharpe & Magnetic Zeros – Home

Apologies to Sarah Blasko’s All I want, Dead Letter Circus’s Space on the Wall,  every song by Karnivool and Röyksopp and how Phoenix didn’t get on the list I’ve no idea.

Odds are available at Sportingbet, Centrebet and Betchoice.