New ATP tennis model analysis
We’ve already had a look at the new upgraded wta model, and the results since the upgrade were fantastic. Only 91 bets were suggested in the latter half of 2010 with the new wta model, but with a 21% return on investment, the new wta model is looking very promising. Our previous analysis of the new wta model is shown here.
But today we will be looking at the newly upgraded atp model. I’ve been working very hard to get it out there, and am still working on it today and for the next several weeks, but at last I can get some analysis done for you for the year 2010.
And the results are relatively pleasing. Shown down the bottom of this article are the statistics, but I will talk about them here first. To start off with, a 3.6% ROI was made, which is similar to the official 3.2% ROI, slightly higher. What is good though is that with the new model, nearly twice as many bets are made, which has resulted in nearly twice as big a profit.
Looking more closely at the data, profits were not found when the probability was below 20% and broke even when the probability was between 20% and 40%. Of course, this is a small sample size. Better results would be from more than one year, and whilst that will take me some time to analyse, I will get onto it.
Just like the “Federer factor” of yesteryear, there is reason to believe that betting when the probability is less than 10% is not profitable. This was also found in the wta analysis. Higher overlays resulted in higher profits which is good to hear, and when just looking at probabilities of 40%+, a 4.6% ROI was made.
Either way, results are quite promising, and there is still a lot of upgrading work to be done.
Prob #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.1 42 1 2.4% $964.77 -$378.01 -39.2%
0.1 0.2 109 14 12.8% $5,164.11 -$406.34 -7.9%
0.2 0.3 148 38 25.7% $9,099.94 $2,364.82 26.0%
0.3 0.4 200 51 25.5% $17,295.07 -$2,575.56 -14.9%
0.4 0.5 237 92 38.8% $27,537.19 $3,247.93 11.8%
0.5 0.6 210 106 50.5% $33,017.91 $2,358.17 7.1%
0.6 0.7 169 97 57.4% $32,900.37 $1,217.28 3.7%
0.7 0.8 144 102 70.8% $37,074.85 $2,755.21 7.4%
0.8 0.9 150 116 77.3% $57,527.75 $615.93 1.1%
0.9 1 62 53 85.5% $35,274.91 -$3.64 0.0%
1471 670 45.5% $255,856.87 $9,195.80 3.6%
Odds #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
1 1.25 73 65 89.0% $35,798.65 $1,285.04 3.6%
1.25 1.5 190 150 78.9% $59,433.99 $2,585.77 4.4%
1.5 1.75 160 103 64.4% $39,009.06 -$512.81 -1.3%
1.75 2 122 64 52.5% $21,210.95 $1,080.19 5.1%
2 2.25 112 66 58.9% $18,341.06 $4,663.48 25.4%
2.25 2.5 132 52 39.4% $19,964.65 -$1,782.06 -8.9%
2.5 3 156 53 34.0% $19,192.66 -$49.52 -0.3%
3 4 213 65 30.5% $21,670.05 $2,714.38 12.5%
4 5 90 23 25.6% $7,344.60 $343.98 4.7%
5 1000 223 29 13.0% $13,891.20 -$1,132.65 -8.2%
1471 670 45.5% $255,856.87 $9,195.80 3.6%
Overlay #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 224 141 62.9% $31,865.84 $3,033.58 9.5%
0.075 0.1 196 115 58.7% $31,006.94 $2,770.20 8.9%
0.1 0.125 174 88 50.6% $30,053.85 -$836.70 -2.8%
0.125 0.15 126 52 41.3% $23,209.50 -$1,116.15 -4.8%
0.15 0.175 100 42 42.0% $15,990.71 -$1,016.84 -6.4%
0.175 0.2 91 45 49.5% $15,937.34 $1,894.61 11.9%
0.2 0.25 152 68 44.7% $29,288.88 $3,008.53 10.3%
0.25 0.3 94 34 36.2% $19,576.54 -$967.13 -4.9%
0.3 0.4 105 36 34.3% $18,901.16 $2,740.67 14.5%
0.4 1000 209 49 23.4% $40,026.12 -$314.97 -0.8%
1471 670 45.5% $255,856.87 $9,195.80 3.6%
Overlay Prob>=0.4 #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 174 125 71.8% $30,678.01 $2,797.46 9.1%
0.075 0.1 154 107 69.5% $29,782.37 $3,058.02 10.3%
0.1 0.125 139 77 55.4% $28,691.38 -$1,147.08 -4.0%
0.125 0.15 89 45 50.6% $21,472.73 -$740.87 -3.5%
0.15 0.175 62 31 50.0% $14,246.00 -$1,586.35 -11.1%
0.175 0.2 59 35 59.3% $13,790.99 $1,414.57 10.3%
0.2 0.25 98 63 64.3% $25,561.42 $5,307.85 20.8%
0.25 0.3 68 28 41.2% $17,468.27 -$1,037.94 -5.9%
0.3 0.4 51 26 51.0% $15,004.66 $2,395.66 16.0%
0.4 1000 78 29 37.2% $26,637.15 -$270.44 -1.0%
972 566 58.2% $223,332.98 $10,190.88 4.6%
oh and I forgot, profits acn be increased by $681 and reduced turnover of $1487 for not betting on games where a player has played less than 5 games.
Thus taking the overall profits to 3.9% ROI