Upgraded WTA Model

Model, Sport Models | | October 1, 2010 at 3:20 pm

Sportpunter have released their upgraded WTA tennis model with good results dating back to the start of 2009. Whilst the old model hasn’t had the greatest of runs, especially since mid last year, the new model has shown significant improvements. What’s more, we’ve also eliminated the “Federer factor”.

That’s right, the “Federer factor” (shortly to be renamed the ‘Nadal Factor’) meant that we were not betting on a lot of matches where the probability of a player winning was less than 30%. It also meant that it was unlikely that we were betting on 1.30 favourites or less.

History shows, in fact, Sportpunter has shown (see here http://www.sportpunter.com/2010/06/five-set-bias-in-tennis/ and here http://www.sportpunter.com/2010/03/betting-short-favourites-in-women%E2%80%99s-tennis-over-the-last-6-years/) that betting no short priced favourites, despite the variance in bank roll, is very profitable. The number of bets that we foresee to be betting on in women’s tennis with the new model should increase by 64%. In the same period, the old model made 1328 bets compared to 2185 with the new method.

What is more, is that the %ROI is better as well. The new WTA model has made a profit of 6.7% ROI since the start of 2009. There is definitely many positives to the womens tennis model going forward. Shown below is the breakup of the new WTA model by probability, odds and overlay.

Prob#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
00.14212.4%$931.43-$615.30-66.1%
0.10.21933116.1% $8,613.65 $3,311.27 38.4%
0.20.32635019.0% $18,306.07 $3,064.33 16.7%
0.30.43228526.4% $31,796.13 -$223.21-0.7%
0.40.530411738.5% $39,296.32 $2,978.64 7.6%
0.50.627213549.6% $43,719.09 $3,718.83 8.5%
0.60.726616160.5% $55,752.13 $5,817.60 10.4%
0.70.822415267.9% $60,777.77 $3,442.31 5.7%
0.80.920915875.6% $83,121.48 $1,307.01 1.6%
0.91907987.8% $56,650.89 $4,116.99 7.3%
218596944.3% $398,964.95 $26,918.45 6.7%
Odds#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
11.3521217482.1% $95,977.93 $3,905.92 4.1%
1.351.626018771.9% $76,561.28 $4,161.54 5.4%
1.61.818412165.8% $41,725.48 $6,575.53 15.8%
1.82.226514052.8% $48,566.25 $763.311.6%
2.22.51807943.9% $28,194.73 $1,077.25 3.8%
2.532239140.8% $30,072.79 $4,574.30 15.2%
342948528.9% $32,951.45 $1,518.22 4.6%
462744717.2% $26,306.01 -$3,989.99 -15.2%
681192521.0% $8,720.06 $6,145.71 70.5%
8501742011.5% $9,888.97 $2,186.66 22.1%
218596944.3% $398,964.95 $26,918.45 6.7%
Overlay#Bets#Won%Won$Bet$Profit%ROI
0.050.07529016055.2% $35,406.36 -$243.30-0.7%
0.0750.123812954.2% $37,688.12 $1,204.76 3.2%
0.10.12523512251.9% $46,732.13 -$291.70-0.6%
0.1250.1520010251.0% $38,831.88 $1,726.04 4.4%
0.150.1751558252.9% $29,487.67 $4,528.43 15.4%
0.1750.21376043.8% $25,026.01 $1,248.97 5.0%
0.20.252089344.7% $43,234.35 $6,343.67 14.7%
0.250.352539537.5% $49,351.49 $3,883.94 7.9%
0.350.52156932.1% $44,747.98 $1,701.88 3.8%
0.552545722.4% $48,458.98 $6,815.77 14.1%
218596944.3% $398,964.95 $26,918.45 6.7%

All sections seem to show good profit. Some clients may wish to eliminate any bets where the probability is less than 10%, but with only 42 bets, and with the huge odds, and hence variability that would occur with just bets, it is difficult to say if there is or isn’t long term profitability in this area. Higher overlays resulted in greater profits, and some people may wish to bet only on 7.5% overlays or even 12.5% overlays or greater.

Either way, the WTA model is looking very good indeed. Click here for the betting history, or click here to sign up to the Sportpunter tennis model.

Next we will look at players who have not played many games before in the database, as well as players who are coming back from injury.

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