Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 1
Following the 2009 Tennis season, I’im going to have a look at how we did during the season.
First up is the ATP, which started well, had a terrible mid to late season and then finished with a good couple of weeks at the end.
The breakdown of all the bets that were made are shown below. This shows a couple of interesting things. Profits were not nearly as big as previous years where in 2008 11.2% ROI was made. Higher probabilities didn’t make a profit, however the amount of bets means we can’t read too much into this. What is interesting is that betting at odds of 3.00 or more failed to make a profit. This is shown in the overlays as well, where our big 100% overlays made a loss with only one win from 23 bets. This is normally our bread and butter. This area, 100%+ overlays was really where the model fell down. I will be analysing the data in more detail to determine why this was the case. With so few bets it could well be just a case of random variation, just not in our favour.
| Prob | Between | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | - | $- | $- | - |
| 0.1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | - | $- | $- | - |
| 0.2 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | - | $- | $- | - |
| 0.3 | 0.4 | 160 | 36 | 22.5% | $23,783.56 | -$812.79 | -3.4% |
| 0.4 | 0.5 | 118 | 39 | 33.1% | $23,499.31 | $81.33 | 0.3% |
| 0.5 | 0.6 | 241 | 109 | 45.2% | $38,708.44 | $1,651.39 | 4.3% |
| 0.6 | 0.7 | 193 | 97 | 50.3% | $39,843.12 | $1,802.93 | 4.5% |
| 0.7 | 0.8 | 125 | 83 | 66.4% | $34,859.76 | $103.99 | 0.3% |
| 0.8 | 0.9 | 61 | 42 | 68.9% | $23,443.95 | -$1,477.48 | -6.3% |
| 0.9 | 1 | 20 | 15 | 75.0% | $11,696.24 | -$316.00 | -2.7% |
| TOTAL | 918 | 421 | 45.9% | $195,834.39 | $1,033.38 | 0.5% | |
| Odds | Between | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 1 | 1.4 | 76 | 58 | 76.3% | $28,100.02 | $1,499.16 | 5.3% |
| 1.4 | 1.7 | 162 | 105 | 64.8% | $38,157.77 | $165.04 | 0.4% |
| 1.7 | 2 | 155 | 74 | 47.7% | $29,553.76 | -$2,124.56 | -7.2% |
| 2 | 2.25 | 131 | 60 | 45.8% | $23,323.53 | -$2,351.40 | -10.1% |
| 2.25 | 2.5 | 67 | 30 | 44.8% | $14,866.31 | $2,371.88 | 16.0% |
| 2.5 | 3 | 76 | 37 | 48.7% | $16,998.01 | $6,244.11 | 36.7% |
| 3 | 4 | 139 | 36 | 25.9% | $24,865.40 | -$1,152.12 | -4.6% |
| 4 | 6 | 104 | 21 | 20.2% | $18,092.43 | -$1,952.16 | -10.8% |
| 6 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | $1,590.43 | -$1,379.85 | -86.8% |
| 10 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | $286.72 | -$286.72 | -100.0% |
| TOTAL | 918 | 421 | 45.9% | $195,834.39 | $1,033.38 | 0.5% | |
| Overlay | Between | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 0 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | - | $- | $- | - |
| 0.05 | 0.1 | 191 | 119 | 62.3% | $29,393.27 | $744.11 | 2.5% |
| 0.1 | 0.15 | 147 | 81 | 55.1% | $29,596.59 | -$751.29 | -2.5% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 88 | 52 | 59.1% | $23,948.53 | $1,634.18 | 6.8% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 54 | 26 | 48.1% | $14,394.36 | -$800.55 | -5.6% |
| 0.25 | 0.3 | 90 | 38 | 42.2% | $17,413.68 | $1,352.18 | 7.8% |
| 0.3 | 0.4 | 139 | 46 | 33.1% | $29,823.96 | -$1,146.67 | -3.8% |
| 0.4 | 0.6 | 126 | 42 | 33.3% | $28,892.49 | $4,651.68 | 16.1% |
| 0.6 | 1 | 60 | 16 | 26.7% | $15,256.10 | $707.12 | 4.6% |
| 1 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 4.3% | $7,115.39 | -$5,357.37 | -75.3% |
| TOTAL | 918 | 421 | 45.9% | $195,834.39 | $1,033.38 | 0.5% |
We will have the WTA analysis in the next post, which is a lot more encouraging. Full results to come.
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