|

AFL profits round by round

afl_captains_selfie_600x400
The AFL season is set to start this weekend, and what a year we hope it to be. If the previous years are anything to go by then it should be another cracker. The betting history speaks for itself. The last 5 years has seen an 18.5% ROI with last year and 2012 both recording over 22% ROI. Incredible stuff! The new player based model has been doing just as well too in its break out year.

The AFL model I believe is Sportpunter’s best. The consistent profits made year in year out, and simplicity of only betting on weekends makes it the perfect subscription for professional punters and newbies alike.

But what is important is to get on board early in round 1. Too many punters like to start betting after round 5 or so because they want to have a feel for the teams. Well the Sportpunter model already has a feel from round 1 and the results speak for themselves.

Shown below are the profits made for line betting since 2005 by round.

profitbyround

Clearly this shows that the first few rounds are when a lot of the profit is made. So it is very important to get subscribed before the first bounce of the first game. In 2011 for example, we won all first 6 bets from round 1, and the two biggest bets in round 2.

But whilst the graph above looks as though the profits generally decrease over the season, it is not a general fault of the model why this is so. Keep in mind that the number of matches played in round 23 onwards are a lot less due to finals. The graph below shows the %ROI based on round for line betting since 2005.

roibyround

This graph shows a pretty consistent profit made throughout the season. The profits early in the year are therefore bigger, because the bet size is bigger and this is because the overlay or advantage to punter is bigger.

So once again this shows the importance of signing up before round 1 starts to reap the rewards. The futures (probability of premiership, finals, spoon etc.) are now on the webpage, and traditionally these have done very well.

This will be our 16th year at making predictions for the AFL. This model has significant profits from long term results. All the details about the AFL subscriptions as well as the betting histories are shown here http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/afl/

Best of punting luck in 2014

Sportpunter.com

Related Posts with Thumbnails

Similar Posts

  • |

    Euro Basketball analysis: totals betting

    Previously we had a look at how European Basketball had gone betting head to head, and line betting. This article we will look at totals betting with the data shown here. Overall the model has made 4.5% betting on totals. It seems to be relatively consistent on all probabilities and odds, however a minimum 10%…

    Related Posts with Thumbnails
  • |

    Soccer asian handicap analysis

    Since going live on the 14/09/09, the soccer asian handicap model has basically broken even on 2677 bets. Considering the large profits made on the h2h betting, this is surprising, although it must be noted that asian handicapping is somewhat harder than simply betting on the team to win on the head. This is largely…

    Related Posts with Thumbnails
  • |

    AFL line betting

    Previously we looked at how the Sportpunter AFL model had gone betting head to head. In this article we will look a little more in depth about how it goes betting on the line or with a handicap. Traditionally, unlike Americans, Australians had always bet on any sport on the head. It makes perfect sense…

    Related Posts with Thumbnails
  • |

    Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 4

    Last week we looked at the successful WTA 2009 season, however today we will look at how the tennis model went in the last five years since 2005 to give a better overall idea of how the model works. The data is shown below in the tables, and following this will be a good write…

    Related Posts with Thumbnails
  • |

    MLB 2011 season over / under win totals predictions

    The Major League Baseball season is about to start and already we have futures predictions for the number of wins that every team will have. These are available below. Our baseball model has been going great guns, last year making 3.1% ROI h2h betting and 4.6% ROI betting totals. With nearly 1600 bets for the…

    Related Posts with Thumbnails
  • |

    Euro Basketball analysis: h2h

    Sportpunter’s Euro Basketball model has been in operation for free since 2011, and we thought it’s about time that we gave you some analysis of how it has gone. This is the first of a three part article on the statistical analysis of the results. This one will be about head to head betting, whilst…

    Related Posts with Thumbnails

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.