Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 7
Shown below is the tables for the favourites for WTA tennis over the last five years and following of which is a brief description.
| Overlay Prob 50-60% | Overlay | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 0 | 0.05 | 187 | 103 | 55.1% | $ 5,483.09 | -$ 10.66 | -0.2% |
| 0.05 | 0.1 | 162 | 80 | 49.4% | $ 12,680.28 | -$ 707.00 | -5.6% |
| 0.1 | 0.15 | 133 | 58 | 43.6% | $ 15,630.88 | -$ 1,676.76 | -10.7% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 112 | 56 | 50.0% | $ 16,990.05 | $ 1,084.17 | 6.4% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 95 | 38 | 40.0% | $ 17,478.96 | -$ 1,711.20 | -9.8% |
| 0.25 | 0.3 | 72 | 38 | 52.8% | $ 15,026.87 | $ 3,258.93 | 21.7% |
| 0.3 | 0.4 | 105 | 43 | 41.0% | $ 25,222.41 | -$ 143.63 | -0.6% |
| 0.4 | 0.6 | 101 | 36 | 35.6% | $ 28,447.42 | -$ 1,337.69 | -4.7% |
| 0.6 | 1 | 37 | 16 | 43.2% | $ 12,353.15 | $ 4,420.16 | 35.8% |
| 1 | 100 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | $ 5,709.38 | -$ 5,709.38 | -100.0% |
| TOTAL | 1018 | 468 | 46.0% | $ 155,022.50 | -$ 2,533.05 | -1.6% | |
| Overlay Prob 60-70% | Overlay | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 0 | 0.05 | 280 | 173 | 61.8% | $ 11,996.12 | $ 330.11 | 2.8% |
| 0.05 | 0.1 | 250 | 145 | 58.0% | $ 28,475.35 | -$ 1,734.85 | -6.1% |
| 0.1 | 0.15 | 198 | 127 | 64.1% | $ 34,366.97 | $ 3,514.39 | 10.2% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 122 | 73 | 59.8% | $ 26,611.34 | $ 2,299.14 | 8.6% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 71 | 39 | 54.9% | $ 18,286.69 | $ 545.70 | 3.0% |
| 0.25 | 0.3 | 65 | 32 | 49.2% | $ 18,320.56 | -$ 613.62 | -3.3% |
| 0.3 | 0.4 | 80 | 52 | 65.0% | $ 25,310.97 | $ 9,249.30 | 36.5% |
| 0.4 | 0.6 | 68 | 33 | 48.5% | $ 25,483.01 | $ 2,872.70 | 11.3% |
| 0.6 | 1 | 36 | 21 | 58.3% | $ 15,962.25 | $ 8,185.80 | 51.3% |
| 1 | 100 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | $ 2,504.13 | $ 1,001.42 | 40.0% |
| TOTAL | 1175 | 697 | 59.3% | $ 207,317.40 | $25,650.10 | 12.4% | |
| Overlay Prob 70-80% | Overlay | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 0 | 0.05 | 328 | 238 | 72.6% | $ 22,419.04 | -$ 446.60 | -2.0% |
| 0.05 | 0.1 | 245 | 175 | 71.4% | $ 41,611.68 | $ 664.78 | 1.6% |
| 0.1 | 0.15 | 174 | 116 | 66.7% | $ 43,669.92 | $ 8.47 | 0.0% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 141 | 89 | 63.1% | $ 43,376.03 | -$ 724.98 | -1.7% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 84 | 52 | 61.9% | $ 29,897.96 | -$ 167.22 | -0.6% |
| 0.25 | 0.3 | 65 | 49 | 75.4% | $ 25,359.42 | $ 7,087.85 | 27.9% |
| 0.3 | 0.4 | 52 | 31 | 59.6% | $ 22,439.19 | $ 1,638.99 | 7.3% |
| 0.4 | 0.6 | 39 | 23 | 59.0% | $ 18,788.79 | $ 3,357.03 | 17.9% |
| 0.6 | 1 | 25 | 13 | 52.0% | $ 13,567.25 | $ 3,113.33 | 22.9% |
| 1 | 100 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | $ 1,147.62 | $ 2,264.67 | 197.3% |
| TOTAL | 1155 | 788 | 68.2% | $ 262,276.93 | $16,796.32 | 6.4% | |
| Overlay Prob 80-90% | Overlay | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 0 | 0.05 | 388 | 328 | 84.5% | $ 45,369.26 | $ 509.47 | 1.1% |
| 0.05 | 0.1 | 254 | 199 | 78.3% | $ 71,665.46 | -$ 301.59 | -0.4% |
| 0.1 | 0.15 | 180 | 142 | 78.9% | $ 68,259.20 | $ 2,722.35 | 4.0% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 118 | 98 | 83.1% | $ 54,059.94 | $ 7,407.69 | 13.7% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 48 | 38 | 79.2% | $ 24,366.01 | $ 3,564.47 | 14.6% |
| 0.25 | 0.3 | 39 | 24 | 61.5% | $ 20,764.83 | -$ 1,424.64 | -6.9% |
| 0.3 | 0.4 | 40 | 31 | 77.5% | $ 23,005.45 | $ 5,496.37 | 23.9% |
| 0.4 | 0.6 | 18 | 10 | 55.6% | $ 11,497.32 | -$ 410.20 | -3.6% |
| 0.6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | $ 4,157.84 | $ 120.05 | 2.9% |
| 1 | 100 | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | $ 3,835.10 | $ 6,703.78 | 174.8% |
| TOTAL | 1096 | 878 | 80.1% | $ 326,980.41 | $24,387.76 | 7.5% | |
| Overlay Prob 90-100% | Overlay | #Bets | #Wins | %Wins | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI |
| 0 | 0.05 | 351 | 333 | 94.9% | $ 90,920.67 | $ 2,261.42 | 2.5% |
| 0.05 | 0.1 | 133 | 116 | 87.2% | $ 66,711.05 | $ 196.95 | 0.3% |
| 0.1 | 0.15 | 86 | 72 | 83.7% | $ 54,476.43 | $ 597.32 | 1.1% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 38 | 34 | 89.5% | $ 24,396.55 | $ 3,384.05 | 13.9% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 22 | 18 | 81.8% | $ 15,214.77 | $ 1,361.51 | 8.9% |
| 0.25 | 0.3 | 13 | 10 | 76.9% | $ 9,662.98 | $ 504.02 | 5.2% |
| 0.3 | 0.4 | 5 | 4 | 80.0% | $ 3,775.88 | $ 574.97 | 15.2% |
| 0.4 | 0.6 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | $ 3,126.92 | -$ 1,820.43 | -58.2% |
| 0.6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | – | $ – | $ – | – |
| 1 | 100 | 0 | 0 | – | $ – | $ – | – |
| TOTAL | 652 | 588 | 90.2% | $ 268,285.25 | $ 7,059.81 | 2.6% |
Apart from the probability range 50-60%, all ranges profited. Large profits were in fact recorded. In fact, when the probability was above 60%, 6.9% ROI was recorded from over 4000 bets. That is a great result indeed. Amazingly, when the probability was above 70% and the overlay above 100%, then all 7 bets won for fantastic results. Higher overlays here resulted in greater profits which is a great thing for an accurate model to show.
Interesting however is the 50-60% range, which failed to make a profit. Unfortunately none of the 14 bets with 100%+ overlay actually won, which one would think is fairly rare. Could it be that there was some injury news that might have stopped some punters making the plunge on these bets?
Once again, I feel that we could be nick-picking a bit here. When the probability was between 40-50%, and again between 60-70% a 12.9% ROI and 12.4% ROI was found respectively. If we combine the 40% to 70% ranges, 3325 bets was made for a total of 8.1% ROI.
This is a great result, so I don’t feel that we should be looking to harshly at the 50-60% range considering that its neighbours all performed so well.
What could be interesting to some is the 2.5% ROI made on 351 bets when the probability is above 90%, and the overlay below 5%. It could well be that all suggested bets with any overlay when the probability is large is profitable due to a very strong favourite/longshot bias.
In fact, should one have bet $100 on every favourite with odds under 1.10 in the past five years, you would have picked up a nice but small profit of $402 or 0.4% ROI. Sportputer clients might think about betting on all overlays for short priced favourites.
In summary, all bets for favourites for the WTA are very profitable, and hopefully we will see a great tennis season again in 2010.
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
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