Sportpunter’s AFL Model Analysis
The AFL season is set to start again this Thursday and with my personal favourite model, we will be predicting from day 1. The tigers play Carlton in the traditional first up game, and we hope (or maybe we don’t) that it will a little closer game. IT may well be the year of the tiger, but any resemblance to Richmond is surely coincidental. Many people have put their stamp on the bulldogs to bark, and as punters we do indeed hope that the dogs – in another form – will.
But first up we will have a look at how the model has gone betting on the head to head, and determine exactly where the profits and losses can be further analysed.
Shown below is the analysis of Sportpunter’s AFL model from day 1, with exceptional results shown.
Prob #Bet #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0% 10% 4 0 0% $61.88 -$61.88 -100%
10% 20% 52 6 12% $2,258.55 $904.33 40%
20% 30% 118 31 26% $8,023.86 $2,735.94 34%
30% 40% 178 56 31% $17,272.72 $2,638.27 15%
40% 50% 185 80 43% $23,816.13 $4,274.28 18%
50% 60% 252 129 51% $42,091.95 $5,065.09 12%
60% 70% 227 123 54% $47,615.25 -$953.68 -2%
70% 80% 204 146 72% $57,468.28 $10,713.46 19%
80% 90% 124 102 82% $48,764.66 $6,983.57 14%
90% 100% 21 19 90% $11,902.55 $421.14 4%
1365 692 51% $259,275.82 $32,720.52 12.6%
Odds #Bet #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
$1.00 $1.10 2 2 100% $1,220.16 $103.29 8%
$1.10 $1.25 37 32 86% $14,854.81 $1,007.49 7%
$1.25 $1.40 75 64 85% $23,928.02 $3,101.69 13%
$1.40 $1.60 152 109 72% $43,207.66 $3,884.32 9%
$1.60 $1.80 171 113 66% $40,434.92 $6,804.86 17%
$1.80 $2.00 140 77 55% $28,007.16 $271.81 1%
$2.00 $2.20 118 63 53% $21,043.38 $2,062.65 10%
$2.20 $2.40 104 47 45% $19,790.44 -$923.68 -5%
$2.40 $2.75 104 50 48% $16,005.37 $4,799.57 30%
$2.75 $3.50 174 65 37% $22,657.96 $5,093.41 22%
$3.50 $5.00 159 47 30% $17,999.29 $3,133.49 17%
$5.00 $25.00 129 23 18% $10,126.67 $3,381.62 33%
1365 692 51% $259,275.82 $32,720.52 12.6%
Overlay #Bet #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 5% 0 0 $0.00 $0.00
5% 10% 348 205 59% $45,453.07 $2,679.93 6%
10% 15% 256 150 59% $45,959.32 $5,210.74 11%
15% 20% 182 102 56% $35,083.36 $5,640.80 16%
20% 25% 120 54 45% $22,708.65 $2,634.70 12%
25% 30% 125 55 44% $29,019.59 $919.40 3%
30% 35% 84 30 36% $19,482.12 -$1,364.67 -7%
35% 40% 58 25 43% $14,569.14 $2,230.75 15%
40% 50% 70 30 43% $17,617.30 $4,219.31 24%
50% 1000% 122 41 34% $29,383.28 $10,549.57 36%
1365 692 51% $259,275.82 $32,720.52 12.6%
Profits are generally recorded throughout all probabilities and all odds, which is great too see. And just like any good model, higher overlays result in higher profits, with a return of 27.6% ROI from 250 bets for overlays greater than 35%.
It seems therefore that the model is right on the market with regards to head to head betting. But has the model done better betting on the line? We will look at that next.
Those are excellent numbers Jon.
None of your other model analyses have shown such consistence of profits across the board.
I don’t see any reason to attempt filtering for H2H betting on those figures.
It will be interesting to see if the line betting shows us anything different.
yep thats the gem of the model and sport I believe. The line betting is very interesting tomorrow
This is a great model. Hope you have plenty of profit this year.
Designing a margin model, so I hope we both have a good year.
Yes, interesting again.
Despite the display being badly distorted – particularly the home v away stats ?
You didn’t do home v away on the H2H which might show similar tendencies? If so then the model isn’t adequately adjusting for home advantage perhaps?
Hareeba, you commented too soon! the page is fixed now and easy reading. I will look at home away stats for h2h next
Apologies for beating the gun there but I had been looking out for that analysis and pounced on it 🙂
Another thing which occurs to me is that there could well be a marked difference between home state and interstate away results.
I recall a few years back we simply didn’t back teams travelling interstate – particularly to WA.
Victorian teams playing “away” at the G or the dome are virtually only nominally away teams. Pussy Park is a different matter :(.
No need to apologise, I was just trying to work out how you reliased it was up so soon! Do you use the RSS feed?
Right you are again Hareeba about HGA but also with interstate travel, my analysis which will be shown tomorrow as well, indicate a lot bigger bias when hosting a travelling side.