Soccer under betting minimum overlays based on League Level
In a previous article we looked at how the soccer model goes betting totals for different groups based on popularity. Results showed that less popular leagues were in fact more profitable than popular leagues. The results was not as extreme as head to head betting, as still good profits were made in all divisions.
Considering that most people know that unders betting usually performs better than overs betting in most sports, it would be interesting to determine how the unders and overs has gone separately for soccer per group.
Shown below is how the unders totals betting as gone per group and for different overlays.
Unders
Group1 Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 235 129 55% $15,507.02 $1,484.42 10%
0.075 0.1 164 79 48% $14,830.78 -$716.57 -5%
0.1 0.125 139 70 50% $16,378.79 $471.06 3%
0.125 0.15 102 45 44% $14,649.70 -$1,292.21 -9%
0.15 0.175 82 34 41% $13,926.60 -$1,622.82 -12%
0.175 0.2 58 34 59% $11,135.08 $2,015.61 18%
0.2 0.225 47 31 66% $10,377.52 $3,570.44 34%
0.225 0.25 39 22 56% $9,435.56 $2,047.69 22%
0.25 0.3 64 41 64% $17,537.95 $6,104.01 35%
0.3 100 49 21 43% $16,939.85 -$1,035.24 -6%
TOTAL 979 506 52% $140,718.85 $11,026.39 7.8%
Group2 Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 350 177 51% $23,236.71 -$14.49 0%
0.075 0.1 314 158 50% $29,054.18 $481.82 2%
0.1 0.125 209 99 47% $24,645.08 -$47.20 0%
0.125 0.15 181 94 52% $25,850.62 $2,312.97 9%
0.15 0.175 134 64 48% $22,964.99 $290.37 1%
0.175 0.2 118 65 55% $22,338.60 $3,131.25 14%
0.2 0.225 67 30 45% $14,334.52 -$107.36 -1%
0.225 0.25 49 25 51% $12,156.31 $1,522.49 13%
0.25 0.3 54 27 50% $15,117.55 $41.08 0%
0.3 100 58 29 50% $20,231.79 $2,384.90 12%
TOTAL 1534 768 50% $209,930.35 $9,995.83 4.8%
Group3 Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 264 144 55% $18,023.91 $1,718.40 10%
0.075 0.1 178 93 52% $17,073.77 $815.87 5%
0.1 0.125 137 71 52% $16,845.12 $364.97 2%
0.125 0.15 120 59 49% $17,273.23 $93.71 1%
0.15 0.175 110 51 46% $18,653.02 -$570.05 -3%
0.175 0.2 70 40 57% $13,564.66 $2,719.88 20%
0.2 0.225 36 17 47% $7,603.66 $470.49 6%
0.225 0.25 23 13 57% $5,613.94 $857.03 15%
0.25 0.3 26 11 42% $6,441.79 -$128.40 -2%
0.3 100 32 19 59% $9,965.40 $3,292.17 33%
TOTAL 996 518 52% $131,058.50 $9,634.07 7.4%
Group4 Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 90 38 42% $6,452.71 -$1,417.26 -22%
0.075 0.1 73 34 47% $7,386.66 -$474.14 -6%
0.1 0.125 61 27 44% $7,626.83 -$854.81 -11%
0.125 0.15 44 25 57% $6,374.95 $829.05 13%
0.15 0.175 32 20 63% $5,187.82 $1,450.40 28%
0.175 0.2 24 14 58% $4,277.27 $1,005.09 23%
0.2 0.225 13 8 62% $2,773.08 $772.75 28%
0.225 0.25 7 3 43% $1,609.78 -$183.87 -11%
0.25 0.3 16 11 69% $3,645.09 $1,905.44 52%
0.3 100 5 2 40% $1,467.09 $165.94 11%
TOTAL 365 182 50% $46,801.28 $3,198.59 6.8%
Group5 Overlay #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
0 0.075 32 16 50% $2,430.49 -$140.08 -6%
0.075 0.1 26 19 73% $2,320.74 $1,081.39 47%
0.1 0.125 26 14 54% $3,290.30 -$107.40 -3%
0.125 0.15 20 9 45% $2,784.82 $71.75 3%
0.15 0.175 11 4 36% $1,767.15 -$248.65 -14%
0.175 0.2 11 8 73% $1,927.38 $924.79 48%
0.2 0.225 11 7 64% $2,551.10 $861.55 34%
0.225 0.25 2 2 100% $417.65 $488.73 117%
0.25 0.3 4 1 25% $992.15 -$100.17 -10%
0.3 100 6 4 67% $3,034.96 $641.33 21%
TOTAL 149 84 56% $21,516.74 $3,473.24 16.1%
Total unders results has been very good, with results spread evenly around the 4.8% ROI mark to 7.8% ROI mark between groups 1 and 4. Group 5 recorded a 16.1% ROI mark however this involves a small sample size.
For Group1, overlays less than 17.5% were not profitable, however the higher overlays recorded amazingly good results.
Group 2 shows profits throughout the ranges, as does Group 3, whilst Group 3 looks non profitable below a 12.5% overlay.
So what to do? Well I guess its up to the individual, but one method might be to keep the minimum overlay at 17.5% for Group1, and at 12.5% for all the other groups.
If one were to undertake this, then over the period since the start of last year, one would have bet 1541 bets, which is 38.3% of the total if a 5% minimum overlay was bet on. A $37.6k profit would have been recorded, at a rate of 11.9% ROI.
Very good figures indeed, but these are of course based on previous data, and choosing the minimum overlay after it has occurred, will produce a better result than betting live. But still these are very good results, and we will be looking at the over next.
