Soccer asian handicap analysis
Since going live on the 14/09/09, the soccer asian handicap model has basically broken even on 2677 bets. Considering the large profits made on the h2h betting, this is surprising, although it must be noted that asian handicapping is somewhat harder than simply betting on the team to win on the head. This is largely due to potential scoring ability of both teams.
More analysis into this area, and using the totals predictions will be used in the asian handicap side of the model in the not too distant future. Results are shown below.
| Odds | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.8 | 142 | 64 | 45% | $25,888.29 | -$1,668.54 | -6% |
| 1.8 | 1.85 | 200 | 100 | 50% | $32,878.86 | $1,006.10 | 3% |
| 1.85 | 1.9 | 326 | 174 | 53% | $53,348.08 | $5,724.75 | 11% |
| 1.9 | 1.95 | 340 | 155 | 46% | $56,027.04 | -$2,772.88 | -5% |
| 1.95 | 2 | 333 | 147 | 44% | $53,565.57 | -$1,488.12 | -3% |
| 2 | 2.05 | 369 | 162 | 44% | $57,095.55 | -$506.64 | -1% |
| 2.05 | 2.1 | 377 | 158 | 42% | $55,186.12 | -$875.22 | -2% |
| 2.1 | 2.15 | 264 | 117 | 44% | $39,293.64 | $677.39 | 2% |
| 2.15 | 2.2 | 168 | 71 | 42% | $26,647.71 | -$1,022.62 | -4% |
| 2.2 | 100 | 158 | 64 | 41% | $26,155.84 | -$133.95 | -1% |
| TOTAL | 2677 | 1212 | 45% | $426,086.70 | -$1,059.73 | 0% | |
| Overlay | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 0 | 0.075 | 464 | 224 | 48% | $30,109.42 | -$3.26 | 0% |
| 0.075 | 0.1 | 408 | 195 | 48% | $37,006.19 | $495.03 | 1% |
| 0.1 | 0.125 | 330 | 136 | 41% | $38,305.81 | -$3,950.31 | -10% |
| 0.125 | 0.15 | 319 | 141 | 44% | $45,076.27 | -$2,131.13 | -5% |
| 0.15 | 0.175 | 263 | 120 | 46% | $44,605.59 | $429.60 | 1% |
| 0.175 | 0.2 | 185 | 80 | 43% | $35,052.25 | -$1,057.14 | -3% |
| 0.2 | 0.225 | 169 | 74 | 44% | $35,638.76 | -$479.79 | -1% |
| 0.225 | 0.25 | 136 | 68 | 50% | $32,083.88 | $3,483.21 | 11% |
| 0.25 | 0.3 | 186 | 79 | 42% | $50,825.69 | -$978.89 | -2% |
| 0.3 | 100 | 217 | 95 | 44% | $77,382.84 | $3,132.95 | 4% |
| TOTAL | 2677 | 1212 | 45% | $426,086.70 | -$1,059.73 | 0% | |
| Line | #Bets | #Won | %Won | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| -5 | -1 | 41 | 19 | 46% | $5,305.07 | -$625.04 | -12% |
| -1 | -0.5 | 79 | 32 | 41% | $10,821.20 | $303.18 | 3% |
| -0.5 | 0 | 627 | 284 | 45% | $89,262.57 | $746.72 | 1% |
| 0 | 0.25 | 428 | 158 | 37% | $70,149.66 | $3,508.22 | 5% |
| 0.25 | 0.5 | 286 | 164 | 57% | $40,260.58 | -$585.09 | -1% |
| 0.5 | 0.75 | 434 | 213 | 49% | $61,379.40 | -$1,264.08 | -2% |
| 0.75 | 1 | 319 | 144 | 45% | $57,661.60 | $1,932.09 | 3% |
| 1 | 1.25 | 222 | 83 | 37% | $45,215.30 | -$1,238.05 | -3% |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 115 | 60 | 52% | $19,929.37 | -$2,307.00 | -12% |
| 1.5 | 5 | 126 | 55 | 44% | $26,101.95 | -$1,530.68 | -6% |
| TOTAL | 2677 | 1212 | 45% | $426,086.70 | -$1,059.73 | 0% |
There is not a lot to talk about in the analysis as shown above. Lower odds are favoured, which could be because of smart money moving the odds to lower amounts. This shows that we might be on the right side of the market more often than not. Also the 2.2% ROI loss on odds of 2.15 and above accentuates this.
Overlays of 20% and 22.5% and above have resulted in profits of 2.6% and 3.5% ROI respectively which are good results.
Interestingly, betting on lines of 1.0 or greater showed strong losses: 463 bets for a 5.5% ROI loss. It would be interesting to see how this went betting on home or away teams. So conversely, betting on 0.25 lines or less resulted in a 2.2% ROI profit from over 1000 bets. Either way, the results are marginal at this stage for asian handicap betting. More data, and more analysis is clearly required.
