NBA week by week model analysis
The NBA season is set to start on Wednesday, and we’ve decided to analyse the model over the five years that we have been providing predictions for. In total line betting has made 1.6% ROI and totals 2.1% ROI. This might seem modest at first sight, but those who have bet the NBA model know very well that it performs significantly better than this in the first half of the season before fading away a little.
Shown below is a table showing how the line model has gone over the five years with the cumulative profit per week. IT shows that if one was to bet the first 7 weeks only, then you would have maximised the profit at a rate of 8.2% ROI. Pretty impressive stuff.
| Weeks | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | Cumulative Profit | Cumulative %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 144 | $35,097.38 | $3,770.76 | 10.7% | $3,770.76 | 10.7% |
| 1 | 140 | $31,262.10 | $1,687.61 | 5.4% | $5,458.37 | 8.2% |
| 2 | 141 | $31,693.31 | $544.37 | 1.7% | $6,002.74 | 6.1% |
| 3 | 163 | $31,697.51 | $4,346.30 | 13.7% | $10,349.04 | 8.0% |
| 4 | 159 | $32,347.38 | $2,576.83 | 8.0% | $12,925.87 | 8.0% |
| 5 | 190 | $35,919.29 | $4,999.44 | 13.9% | $17,925.31 | 9.1% |
| 6 | 156 | $27,885.00 | $949.03 | 3.4% | $18,874.33 | 8.4% |
| 7 | 162 | $27,684.63 | $2,019.23 | 7.3% | $20,893.57 | 8.2% |
| 8 | 149 | $24,695.55 | -$536.43 | -2.2% | $20,357.14 | 7.3% |
| 9 | 155 | $26,130.77 | -$1,898.55 | -7.3% | $18,458.58 | 6.1% |
| 10 | 166 | $26,827.77 | -$3,681.82 | -13.7% | $14,776.76 | 4.5% |
| 11 | 154 | $26,807.63 | -$4,103.90 | -15.3% | $10,672.86 | 3.0% |
| 12 | 157 | $24,779.09 | -$724.31 | -2.9% | $9,948.55 | 2.6% |
| 13 | 135 | $23,163.47 | $26.82 | 0.1% | $9,975.37 | 2.5% |
| 14 | 153 | $27,020.23 | $3,733.58 | 13.8% | $13,708.95 | 3.2% |
| 15 | 128 | $21,970.03 | $1,567.16 | 7.1% | $15,276.11 | 3.4% |
| 16 | 121 | $22,481.71 | $1,351.89 | 6.0% | $16,628.00 | 3.5% |
| 17 | 134 | $22,787.58 | $1,587.58 | 7.0% | $18,215.58 | 3.6% |
| 18 | 142 | $25,111.30 | -$2,688.65 | -10.7% | $15,526.93 | 3.0% |
| 19 | 126 | $20,627.74 | -$2,653.09 | -12.9% | $12,873.84 | 2.4% |
| 20 | 135 | $22,182.13 | $6,486.85 | 29.2% | $19,360.69 | 3.4% |
| 21 | 122 | $19,564.15 | -$2,459.52 | -12.6% | $16,901.17 | 2.9% |
| 22 | 115 | $19,643.40 | -$1,883.38 | -9.6% | $15,017.79 | 2.5% |
| 23 | 108 | $21,002.29 | $36.92 | 0.2% | $15,054.71 | 2.4% |
| 24 | 59 | $17,031.75 | -$3,390.14 | -19.9% | $11,664.58 | 1.8% |
| 25 | 31 | $6,400.16 | -$765.19 | -12.0% | $10,899.39 | 1.7% |
| 26 | 16 | $2,088.13 | -$587.60 | -28.1% | $10,311.78 | 1.6% |
| 27 | 21 | $4,382.50 | $414.63 | 9.5% | $10,726.42 | 1.6% |
| 28 | 15 | $1,828.49 | -$735.85 | -40.2% | $9,990.56 | 1.5% |
| 29 | 9 | $1,287.70 | $981.21 | 76.2% | $10,971.77 | 1.7% |
| 30 | 4 | $401.21 | -$401.21 | -100.0% | $10,570.56 | 1.6% |
| 31 | 3 | $530.91 | $118.13 | 22.3% | $10,688.69 | 1.6% |
| 32 | 8 | $1,160.24 | $111.19 | 9.6% | $10,799.89 | 1.6% |
| 33 | 3 | $623.02 | -$214.02 | -34.4% | $10,585.86 | 1.6% |
The table below does the same but for totals betting. It shows that 9 weeks in, and one maximises their profit at a rate of 5.5% ROI.
| Weeks | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | Cumulative Profit | Cumulative %ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 133 | $36,678.85 | $3,793.24 | 10.3% | $3,793.24 | 10.3% |
| 1 | 152 | $35,169.15 | $2,935.55 | 8.3% | $6,728.79 | 9.4% |
| 2 | 140 | $34,221.81 | $211.73 | 0.6% | $6,940.52 | 6.5% |
| 3 | 156 | $34,752.20 | $4,801.66 | 13.8% | $11,742.18 | 8.3% |
| 4 | 153 | $32,270.79 | -$208.40 | -0.6% | $11,533.78 | 6.7% |
| 5 | 188 | $36,422.22 | -$213.98 | -0.6% | $11,319.80 | 5.4% |
| 6 | 153 | $28,233.49 | $1,699.51 | 6.0% | $13,019.31 | 5.5% |
| 7 | 164 | $27,363.86 | $1,959.16 | 7.2% | $14,978.47 | 5.6% |
| 8 | 139 | $23,063.13 | $1,948.20 | 8.4% | $16,926.67 | 5.9% |
| 9 | 138 | $23,552.54 | $215.50 | 0.9% | $17,142.16 | 5.5% |
| 10 | 140 | $20,138.68 | -$113.11 | -0.6% | $17,029.06 | 5.1% |
| 11 | 133 | $22,839.71 | -$342.60 | -1.5% | $16,686.46 | 4.7% |
| 12 | 153 | $25,338.76 | -$1,385.82 | -5.5% | $15,300.63 | 4.0% |
| 13 | 147 | $22,224.16 | -$3,770.56 | -17.0% | $11,530.08 | 2.9% |
| 14 | 156 | $26,332.04 | $1,392.00 | 5.3% | $12,922.07 | 3.0% |
| 15 | 115 | $19,445.00 | -$3,272.16 | -16.8% | $9,649.91 | 2.2% |
| 16 | 106 | $17,338.78 | $249.76 | 1.4% | $9,899.67 | 2.1% |
| 17 | 142 | $21,448.25 | $762.69 | 3.6% | $10,662.36 | 2.2% |
| 18 | 136 | $22,220.92 | -$1,613.39 | -7.3% | $9,048.97 | 1.8% |
| 19 | 131 | $23,672.51 | -$2,328.43 | -9.8% | $6,720.54 | 1.3% |
| 20 | 127 | $19,914.28 | -$3,015.29 | -15.1% | $3,705.24 | 0.7% |
| 21 | 129 | $21,908.55 | $3,389.23 | 15.5% | $7,094.47 | 1.2% |
| 22 | 101 | $15,102.76 | $2,050.30 | 13.6% | $9,144.77 | 1.6% |
| 23 | 90 | $13,244.98 | -$127.89 | -1.0% | $9,016.88 | 1.5% |
| 24 | 57 | $11,847.01 | $997.72 | 8.4% | $10,014.59 | 1.6% |
| 25 | 45 | $9,590.72 | $1.05 | 0.0% | $10,015.64 | 1.6% |
| 26 | 19 | $4,101.96 | -$262.63 | -6.4% | $9,753.01 | 1.6% |
| 27 | 14 | $1,543.45 | -$327.82 | -21.2% | $9,425.19 | 1.5% |
| 28 | 16 | $2,382.66 | -$22.45 | -0.9% | $9,402.74 | 1.5% |
| 29 | 12 | $2,478.60 | $1,245.13 | 50.2% | $10,647.87 | 1.7% |
| 30 | 9 | $1,848.79 | -$689.06 | -37.3% | $9,958.81 | 1.6% |
| 31 | 5 | $1,045.85 | -$654.44 | -62.6% | $9,304.37 | 1.5% |
| 32 | 8 | $1,774.95 | -$58.33 | -3.3% | $9,246.03 | 1.4% |
| 33 | 3 | $545.54 | $72.59 | 13.3% | $9,318.62 | 1.5% |
These week numbers of course are not be all and end all, and it will vary year to year. But they do give the punter an idea of when the model has done well in the past, and the obvious answer is from word go.
With the NBA season beginning Wednesday, you don’t want to miss a few weeks and hence miss out on all the action about when the model has traditionally performed the best.
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