Melbourne Cup Probabilities
Well the Melbourne Cup is s
oon on us. Come Tuesday at 3pm they will all be in full gallop. So, I thought I had to whip up something for the special event. Whilst my horse racing model might soon be on the cards here at Sportpunter, the best I can do at the moment is give you the probability of each horse finishing first, second, third, and for some most importantly, last.
The probabilities are calculated from a simulation based on the starting price of each of the horses to win. And so here they are:
| No | Horse | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Last |
| 1 | Viewed | 17.8% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 1.5% |
| 2 | Cest La Guerre | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| 3 | Fiumicino | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 5.5% |
| 4 | Master Oreilly | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% |
| 5 | Mourilyan | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| 6 | Roman Emperor | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 1.7% |
| 7 | Ista Kareem | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 5.6% |
| 8 | Crime Scene | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.1% |
| 9 | Munsef | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.8% |
| 10 | Zavite | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 5.0% |
| 11 | Alcopop | 16.8% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 1.4% |
| 12 | Harris Tweed | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 7.3% |
| 13 | Kibbutz | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 5.0% |
| 14 | Newport | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% |
| 15 | Warringah | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% |
| 16 | Gallions Reach | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 9.9% |
| 17 | Spin Around | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 9.2% |
| 18 | Basaltico | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% |
| 19 | Capecover | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 5.4% |
| 20 | Daffodil | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 2.7% |
| 21 | Shocking | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 1.9% |
| 22 | Allez Wonder | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% |
| 23 | Changingoftheguard | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 2.8% |
| 24 | Leica Ding | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
For those who are interested, Sportsbet have a special deal that if your horse runs in second to any of Bart Cummings horses (either Viewed, Roman Emperor, Allez Wonder or Zavite) then you will get your money back. Perfect!
Who are you betting on this year? How do you spend your Melbourne cup? Tell us all below in the comments section
I haven’t bet on the cup in years, would make it feel like i was working instead of just enjoying the day. I’ll be getting suited up and heading to Kembla Grange for the day.
I’m usually hung over to properly organise anything for the day. The day before our cricket club has a Calcutta night, where we auction off all the horses etc. Unfort I’m not going this year because I fractured my jaw and cannot drink – defeats the purpose in going really.