Archive for the ‘Gambling Blog’

  • Top 4 AFL games where player model is different to team based model
    We previously talked about the difference between the original model and the player based model as discussed before. But today, we will outline the 4 games with the biggest difference in probabilities and why. So here they are. 4. Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney. Round 21,2012. At a finishing line of +49.5, our old model rated the bulldogs a 69.8% chance to cover the line....
    by at February 27th, 2013 at 01:02 pm
  • Tennis Serving Speed Male vs Female
    It’s well documented and observed that on average male tennis players serve faster than females. This is common sense considering that males are much more stronger than females. But how much difference is there really and can the strongest female out serve the weakest male? Shown below is a graph showing the distribution of female and male players for their average fastest...
    by at January 10th, 2013 at 01:01 pm
  • Happy 10th Birthday Sportpunter
    Sportpunter is celebrating its 10th year in business. That’s 10 years of giving out predictions from its website. From the humble start of giving tennis predictions and cricket matchups from the Swinburne University website till now, it’s been a great experience. Many of our followers have followed us from the very beginning and continue to do so now, so thankyou to...
    by at November 16th, 2012 at 02:11 pm
  • Betting against the big tennis winner
    When Philipp Kohlschreiber defeated the French Open Champion Rafael Nadal at the Gerry Webber Open at big odds of almost 7.00, it was one of the biggest upsets over the past month. Nadal, was clearly tired after winning the French Open but the punters still backed him to win. Of course, it was a massive win for Kohlschreiber, who had never defeated a number one seeded...
    by at June 20th, 2012 at 03:06 pm
  • GWS Giants – how will they fare when compared to Gold Coast?
    The opening match between Greater Western Sydney Giants and the Sydney Swans looks to be a very interesting betting game indeed. No one is really sure how to rate the Giants, except for the fact that the Swans will make them look like midgets. But interestingly, the amount that the books believe that the swans will give the giants a hiding for is greater than any match...
    by at March 22nd, 2012 at 09:03 am
  • Debunking the debunking of the Kelly Criterion
    Recently one of my potential clients pointed out a website that claims to debunk the Kelly criterion. For those that don’t know the Kelly criterion is a money management strategy that works out how much you should bet on a sports outcome based on the probability of the team winning, the odds that the team are at and your bank size. It is not the first time I’ve noticed...
    by at March 6th, 2012 at 10:03 am
  • AFL NAB Cup multis
    Betfair have a new multi betting option available here: http://ausmultis.betfair.com/ But there are some opportunities involved for the NAB Cup. Very rarely do sports teams play two matches on the one day, and one can assume that there should be some form of dependence on the two events. In other words, if a particular team were to win the first of their two matches, then...
    by at February 17th, 2012 at 04:02 pm
  • 2011 Triple J Hottest 100 – who will be this years winner? Predictions and odds
    Could Gotye’s Somebody that I used to know be the biggest favourite of all time in hottest 100 history? Sportingbet opened up the song at 1.25 and it was quickly backed into 1.15, with the all other songs category at 5.00. Perhaps the closest year where we saw the favourite galloping lengths ahead was in 1998 when The Offspring received more than twice as many votes...
    by at December 15th, 2011 at 11:12 am
  • Sportpunter’s basketball models
    Basketball, it’s all about basketball. With tennis winding down and several sports like golf, taking a break during the festive season, basketball is the sport to bet on. And Sportpunter have it all covered for you!   European Basketball We have just recently added over 30 different European leagues, and every day we will be releasing probabilities for them all....
    by at November 30th, 2011 at 04:11 pm
  • Could 2011/12 be the lowest scoring NHL season in history?
    Could this year be one of the lowest scoring years in NHL history? Possibly, if pre season total scores are anything to go by. We have shown previously that pre season total scores are more closely correlated with the seasons average total scores than the previous seasons average. This analysis is shown here. In fact the analysis as linked above shows that the average...
    by at October 5th, 2011 at 03:10 pm