Archive for the ‘Gambling Blog’

  • GWS Giants – how will they fare when compared to Gold Coast?
    The opening match between Greater Western Sydney Giants and the Sydney Swans looks to be a very interesting betting game indeed. No one is really sure how to rate the Giants, except for the fact that the Swans will make them look like midgets. But interestingly, the amount that the books believe that the swans will give the giants a hiding for is greater than any match...
    by at March 22nd, 2012 at 09:03 am
  • Debunking the debunking of the Kelly Criterion
    Recently one of my potential clients pointed out a website that claims to debunk the Kelly criterion. For those that don’t know the Kelly criterion is a money management strategy that works out how much you should bet on a sports outcome based on the probability of the team winning, the odds that the team are at and your bank size. It is not the first time I’ve noticed...
    by at March 6th, 2012 at 10:03 am
  • AFL NAB Cup multis
    Betfair have a new multi betting option available here: http://ausmultis.betfair.com/ But there are some opportunities involved for the NAB Cup. Very rarely do sports teams play two matches on the one day, and one can assume that there should be some form of dependence on the two events. In other words, if a particular team were to win the first of their two matches, then...
    by at February 17th, 2012 at 04:02 pm
  • 2011 Triple J Hottest 100 – who will be this years winner? Predictions and odds
    Could Gotye’s Somebody that I used to know be the biggest favourite of all time in hottest 100 history? Sportingbet opened up the song at 1.25 and it was quickly backed into 1.15, with the all other songs category at 5.00. Perhaps the closest year where we saw the favourite galloping lengths ahead was in 1998 when The Offspring received more than twice as many votes...
    by at December 15th, 2011 at 11:12 am
  • Sportpunter’s basketball models
    Basketball, it’s all about basketball. With tennis winding down and several sports like golf, taking a break during the festive season, basketball is the sport to bet on. And Sportpunter have it all covered for you!   European Basketball We have just recently added over 30 different European leagues, and every day we will be releasing probabilities for them all....
    by at November 30th, 2011 at 04:11 pm
  • Could 2011/12 be the lowest scoring NHL season in history?
    Could this year be one of the lowest scoring years in NHL history? Possibly, if pre season total scores are anything to go by. We have shown previously that pre season total scores are more closely correlated with the seasons average total scores than the previous seasons average. This analysis is shown here. In fact the analysis as linked above shows that the average...
    by at October 5th, 2011 at 03:10 pm
  • Latest update: NHL, NBL, NFL and AFL wrap-up.
    Ice Hockey – NHL   The ice hockey season is on us again, and NHL is set to start on October 6th, in just three days time. Sportpunter will be giving out their predictions as per normal, and a full analysis of the NHL will appear on the website before the start of the season. Last year we made 5.8% ROI from over 330 bets for the year, and our total record since...
    by at October 3rd, 2011 at 04:10 pm
  • Sportpunter NFL prediction details
    With the NFL season set to start a lot of people are requesting the old username and passwords to access the predictions, as well as the start time. For all the subscribers to this mailing list, the predictions can be found by subscribing to the mailing list. All predictions will be given away 1 hour before start time for the day. So, for the opening match, the predictions...
    by at September 8th, 2011 at 11:09 am
  • AFL Priority Picks – An Alternative Solution
    Following Collingwood’s 138 point thrashing of Port Adelaide, Mick Malthouse fears that such one sided matches will turn supporters off the game that they love. He is correct in that opinion and this year has indeed seen some massive one sided affairs. Since 1997 we have averaged 3.9 games a season where a team has won by over 100 points, however this year these thrashings...
    by at August 8th, 2011 at 01:08 pm
  • How many wins does it take to make the finals in AFL?
    With 17 teams in the AFL this year, and only a top 8 available for finals, to make the finals one would have to win by more than the 11 to 12 matches for the year. This year is a little different. With 9 teams missing out, along with supposedly easy beats Gold Coast, perhaps teams will need to win more matches than normal to make the finals and the top4. Gold Coast haven’t...
    by at May 10th, 2011 at 03:05 pm