2010 Triple J Hottest 100 – who will be this years winner? Predictions and odds

The 2011 predictions and odds article is here
If your looking to place a bet on the Triple J Hottest 100, then sign up at sportingbet.
The triple J hottest 100 is on again for Australian music fans, and hopefully this year we wont get the result before the result is played. Triple j crew got a major slap on the wrist last year when they accidently posted on their website, several days before the actual release time, that Mumford and Suns song Little Lion Man had won.

Congratulations, went the webpage. Turns out some staff member had already created the winning webpage for the group and had accidently uploaded it a week early. As a consequence, the odds for Momford and Suns went from $11 into $2.20 and then the entire market got taken off the bookmakers.

Will there be any insider trading this year? It takes a brave bookmaker to price up the market, but I guess with small turnover the advertising possibilities outweighs the potential loss. Already I notice, that Sportingbet have odds available and have already done a publicity piece at the herald sun website.

Interestingly, they claim that Big Jet Plane by Angus and Julia Stone has been heavily backed by bookmakers. Surprising this when you consider that their price has actually gone out from a starting price of 3.5 to 3.75. I guess Sportingbet want you to think that they are a good thing. But Angus and Julia stone are also the peoples choice at the hottest 100. Being Australian for starters helps, and also having that urban alternative look and feel adds another positive for them.

On the downside is the fact that their songs on their album, despite being a great collection, don’t really stand out by themselves. This is after all a song contest, not an album contest. No better way of highlighting this is to show the 2.50 favourite Cee-Lo Green’s controversial hit Fuck You. Controversial I guess, only because of the language. But can anyone think of any other songs that Cee-Lo Green has sung? Probably not, although we all should know of his writing of Gnarls Barkley’s Crazy.

Keep in mind that Crazy was, also surprisingly, the 2.50 favourite to win in 2006 but came in 6th

So as punters what should we do when betting on the hottest 100? Well, last year, if you had followed the trends you would have collected very well. So what are the trends at the moment? The biggest mover is Duck Sauce’s Barbara Streisand. It started at odds of 51, and is now into 11s.

Had the competition been run a few weeks ago it probably could have won, however, as time goes by, this song gets more annoying, and I can’t see it making the top spot. Plans by Birds of Tokyo has come in from 11 into 6.5. Probably the most liked typical band of the year, the birds are a great chance to take the converted prize. Sparkadia has come in from 26 into 15, whilst John Butlers Revolution has drifted from 9 to 10.

Whilst not being a massive John Butler fan (that’s a surprise to some of you who have seen me I’m sure!), I kinda like his Revolution. Along with Plans, they are the only two songs with a possibility of winning that mould into the older style of triple j music.

So my suggestion? Hmm….I think I’ll watch the markets a little more, and write another post about the countdown soon. Oh and of course, if you make a bet, make sure that you vote for them too!

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Current Odds courtesy of Sportingbet:

F U – CEE-LO GREEN	2.5
BIG JET PLANE – ANGUS & JULIA STONE	3.75
PLANS – BIRDS OF TOKYO	6.5
TOKYO VAMPIRES AND WOLVES – THE WOMBATS	9
REVOLUTION – JOHN BUTLER TRIO	10
BARBARA STREISAND – DUCK SAUCE	11
CLAP YOUR HANDS – SIA	11
SUNDAY BEST – WASHINGTON	12
HURT ME – THE JEZABELS	14
DANCE THE WAY I FEEL -OU EST LE SWIMMING POOL	14
SOLITUDE IS BLISS – TAME IMPALA	14
ROCK IT – LITTLE RED	14
TALKING LIKE IM FALLING DOWN STAIRS – SPARKADIA	15
BANG BANG BANG – MARK RONSON & THE BUSINESS INTL	17
ADDICTED -BLISS N ESSO	17
RICH KIDS – WASHINGTON	21
PUNCHING IN A DREAM – THE NAKED AND FAMOUS	21
MAGIC FOUNTAIN – ART VS SCIENCE	21
LUCIDITY – TAME IMPALA	26
THE BIKE SONG – MARK RONSON & THE BUSINESS INTL	26
RADIOACTIVE – KINGS OF LEON	26
THERES NOTHING IN THE WATER WE CANT FIGHT – CLOUD CONTROL	26
MY EAGLE – CHILDREN COLLIDE	26
WE NO SPEAK AMERICANO – YOLANDA BE COOL & DCUP	26
CLOSE TO YOU – JOHN BUTLER TRIO	34
FOREVER & EVER AMEN – THE DRUMS	34
THE SUBURBS – ARCADE FIRE	34
TEENAGE CRIME – ADRIAN LUX	34
NA NA NA (NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA) – MY CHEMICAL ROMANCE	34
JACKSONS LAST STAND – OU EST LE SWIMMING POOL	34
SHE NEVER WANTS TO DANCE – CITY RIOTS	34
BLACK CROW – ANGUS & JULIA STONE	34
RADAR DETECTOR – DARWIN DEEZ	34
BABY IM GETTING BETTER – GYROSCOPE	34
BIG – DEAD LETTER CIRCUS	41
CONGRATULATIONS – MGMT	41
I CAN CHANGE – LCD SOUNDSYSTEM	41
OVERPASS – JOHN STEEL SINGERS	41
ABC NEWS THEME REMIX – PENDULUM	41
HOLD ON – ANGUS & JULIA STONE	41
IT CAN WAIT – ILLY	41
WAY BACK HOME – BAG RAIDERS	41
MACE SPRAY – THE JEZABELS	41
ECHOES – KLAXONS	41
LETTER – DAN SULTAN	41
EYES WIDE OPEN – GOTYE	41
RABBIT SONG – BOY & BEAR	51
SAVE OUR TOWN – PHILADELPHIA GRAND JURY	51
SOMEBODY TO LOVE ME – MARK RONSON & THE BUSINESS INTL	51
ONE – YEASAYER	51
BARRICADE – INTERPOL	51
I FEEL BETTER – HOT CHIP	51
SLOW MOTION – LITTLE RED	67
WILD AT HEART – BIRDS OF TOKYO	67
AUDIENCE – COLD WAR KIDS	67
MIAMI – FOALS	67
GIVING UP THE GUN – VAMPIRE WEEKEND	67
LETS GO SURFING – THE DRUMS	67
DRUNK GIRLS – LCD SOUND SYSTEM	67
NOT IN LOVE – CRYSTAL CASTLES FT. ROBERT SMITH	67
BROKEN BONES – THE HOLIDAYS	67
YOUNGBLOODS OR ANCHORS – THE AMITY AFFLICTION	81
PUMPED UP KIDS – FOSTER THE PEOPLE	81
SLEEPWALKER – PARKWAY DRIVE	81
AFTER DARK – THE COUNT & SINDEN	101

Who’s your pick for this years title? Add your selection in the comments section below.