Sportpunter has developed a
new NBA Model, in the same lines as it previous models. It
has included data going back to 1994. We have analysed odds
going back three years and the results are pretty good. These
are shown below:
Year
#Bets
#Won
%Won
$Bet
$Profit
%ROI
2001/02
860
444
51.6%
$160,198.61
$3,152.59
2.0%
2002/03
1039
536
51.6%
$165,515.88
$3,203.22
1.9%
2003/04
1036
521
50.3%
$173,733.33
$9,168.95
5.3%
TOTAL
2935
1501
51.1%
$499,447.83
$15,524.76
3.1%
Betting is on the line and using the kelly system based on
a $1,000 bank on full constant kelly betting\. Hence in three
years we've turned $1,000 into $16,500. A conservative %ROI
of 3.1% over the three years, but the large amount of bets
means a healthy profit.
This can be increased to 3.2% ROI when deciding
to only bet on 5% overlays or greater. An analysis of the
different overlays is shown below:
Overlay
#Bets
#Won
%Won
$Bet
$Profit
%ROI
0
0.02
7
2
28.6%
$142.56
-$63.22
-44.3%
0.02
0.035
225
108
48.0%
$6,568.14
-$132.24
-2.0%
0.035
0.05
207
103
49.8%
$9,146.73
$8.94
0.1%
0.05
0.075
333
177
53.2%
$21,697.10
$1,258.13
5.8%
0.075
0.1
319
157
49.2%
$29,014.75
-$72.60
-0.3%
0.1
0.125
287
155
54.0%
$33,614.78
$2,798.15
8.3%
0.125
0.15
255
125
49.0%
$36,467.58
-$539.53
-1.5%
0.15
0.175
206
108
52.4%
$34,753.93
$900.57
2.6%
0.175
0.2
199
104
52.3%
$38,914.05
$1,158.32
3.0%
0.2
0.25
311
158
50.8%
$72,573.75
$279.89
0.4%
0.25
0.3
203
103
50.7%
$57,560.33
$1,615.81
2.8%
0.3
0.4
234
127
54.3%
$82,779.83
$6,385.77
7.7%
0.4
0.5
103
48
46.6%
$47,533.11
-$2,964.04
-6.2%
0.5
0.65
33
16
48.5%
$18,935.08
-$411.18
-2.2%
0.65
0.8
12
9
75.0%
$8,909.18
$4,498.55
50.5%
0.8
1
1
1
100.0%
$836.93
$803.45
96.0%
TOTAL
2935
1501
51.1%
$499,447.83
$15,524.76
3.1%
At the moment it's pre-season for the NBA,
but sportpunter have already come up with predictions.
We plan on updating tournament predictions
and daily matches every day (with the exception of a few -
sometimes I need a break!), so come back often to check out
Sportpunter's free NBA Predictions.
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