Mens Tennis Totals Analysis
Tennis totals odds is set to start in just two days, and we’ve been frantically making a totals model that is completely dependant of the head to head betting.
Its common knowledge that the more one sided a game is, the more likely it is that the total amount of games played in the match will be lower. However, given the independence of this on our predictions, we have decided to make a totals betting model based on the actual odds (as well of course, many other variables).
This is so that you may bet with knowledge that the overlay that occurs on the totals in not dependant on the overlay that you have on the player. Slowly we are going to be bringing these predictions to you, and at the moment we’ve done some detailed analysis on mens tennis and the results look good as shown below:
BetType #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
Over 649 332 51.2% $89,782.96 $5,108.89 5.7%
Under 3054 1658 54.3% $413,870.56 $50,564.46 12.2%
3703 1990 53.7% $503,653.52 $55,673.35 11.1%
Sets #Bets #Wins %Wins $Bet $Profit %ROI
3 2582 1355 52.5% $293,386.13 $26,118.68 8.9%
5 1121 635 56.6% $210,267.39 $29,554.67 14.1%
3703 1990 53.7% $503,653.52 $55,673.35 11.1%
Surface
Clay 994 541 54.4% $133,681.89 $15,500.21 11.6%
Grass 464 258 55.6% $67,510.27 $9,595.70 14.2%
Hard 1575 830 52.7% $223,346.71 $21,170.34 9.5%
Carpet 64 37 57.8% $8,841.63 $862.46 9.8%
I.hard 606 324 53.5% $70,273.01 $8,544.63 12.2%
3703 1990 53.7% $503,653.52 $55,673.35 11.1%
Firstly, the 11% ROI is just amazing considering we are using Pinnacle’s own odds to judge the evenness of the match. Clearly, it is our other variables that are creating the overlays and positive expectaction. We have over 80% of the bets on the unders as opposed to overs (which is common in most sports), and have a great track record of best of 3 sets and best of 5 sets.
Profits are just as good on different court surfaces which is also encouraging. Females totals betting is the next step, and along with the new line betting markets, 2012 should be a great year for tennis subscribers.
Click here to see the prices or to subscribe to Tennis in 2012
