NCAAB totals on the increase
The start of the new NCAAB (American College Basketball) season has seen some high scoring matches. Since the year 2000, scores have gradually been decreasing from a high of 142 on average to last years low of 133. However, this season already has seen a massive jump up to 147 points per game. This can be seen in the figures below:
| Year | Av. Scores |
|---|---|
| 2000/2001 | 142.1 |
| 2001/2002 | 141.6 |
| 2002/2003 | 139.6 |
| 2003/2004 | 138.0 |
| 2004/2005 | 137.4 |
| 2005/2006 | 137.1 |
| 2006/2007 | 137.4 |
| 2007/2008 | 137.5 |
| 2008/2009 | 135.8 |
| 2009/2010 | 136.9 |
| 2010/2011 | 136.7 |
| 2011/2012 | 134.6 |
| 2012/2013 | 133.3 |
| 2013/2014 | 147.8 |
There are a number of reasons for the increase in scores. More free throws are being made with more fouls. The games are quicker, largely due to the shorter possession time. So will this greater trend continue?
Most likely, although I don’t expect it to aveage 147 points per game throughout the year. The table below, shows the average score, average line, difference and percentage number of games that have gone over season by season. The average scores are slightly different to those above, as these are only matches in which I have recorded a totals line.
| Date | Matches | Average Score | Average Line | Difference | %Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003/2004 | 702 | 138.1 | 136.8 | 1.3 | 50.9% |
| 2004/2005 | 1936 | 138.1 | 137.8 | 0.3 | 49.6% |
| 2005/2006 | 2334 | 137.1 | 136.3 | 0.7 | 49.7% |
| 2006/2007 | 2775 | 137.9 | 136.9 | 1.0 | 51.4% |
| 2007/2008 | 1922 | 137.3 | 137.0 | 0.3 | 49.0% |
| 2008/2009 | 2480 | 135.3 | 135.4 | -0.1 | 48.8% |
| 2009/2010 | 2451 | 136.9 | 137.3 | -0.4 | 48.0% |
| 2010/2011 | 2550 | 136.1 | 136.1 | 0.1 | 49.2% |
| 2011/2012 | 2460 | 133.8 | 133.7 | 0.0 | 49.8% |
| 2012/2013 | 623 | 132.3 | 133.5 | -1.3 | 47.4% |
Once again the average score is decreasing. The average line also has been decreasing but at a lot slower rate than the score. Only 47.4% of scores went over last year. But I would imagine, this year, with a sudden increase in scores, that a lot more will be going over.
A full upgrade of the totals model for NCAAB is in the process at the moment, and results should be up soon. In the meantime, check out the latest NCAAB predictions and betting histories here, which are free of charge: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/college/
