NFL 2016 analysis
NFL is back for 2016 and we have included some analysis as shown below.
Shown below are analysis of the NFL betting for the 2014 and 2015 seasons.
Firstly line betting. Results are good at the start of the year, and I see no reason not to be early. However a minimum overlay of 25% might be the best taking. Keep in mind that these are small sample sizes.
For totals betting, profits seem to occur in the latter half of the season from around round 14 onwards. A minimum overlay of 12.5% might be advantageous, and this takes away a lot of the noise, so that betting from around weeks 4 or 5 is best for totals betting.
Once again note that these involve small sample sizes, but hopefully we will come out in front again in 2016/17
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Line Data
| Week | #Bets | #Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | $3,874.63 | $1,411.99 | 36.4% | |
| 2 | 25 | $3,419.47 | $1,069.81 | 31.3% | |
| 3 | 22 | $4,021.99 | -$517.14 | -12.9% | |
| 4 | 20 | $4,518.50 | -$809.24 | -17.9% | |
| 5 | 24 | $3,935.43 | -$306.78 | -7.8% | |
| 6 | 21 | $3,863.94 | $946.50 | 24.5% | |
| 7 | 24 | $4,692.02 | -$722.41 | -15.4% | |
| 8 | 18 | $4,206.78 | $816.09 | 19.4% | |
| 9 | 21 | $4,239.46 | $17.82 | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 19 | $2,966.09 | -$830.58 | -28.0% | |
| 11 | 22 | $4,795.53 | $848.01 | 17.7% | |
| 12 | 24 | $4,988.09 | $921.08 | 18.5% | |
| 13 | 19 | $3,808.18 | -$2.13 | -0.1% | |
| 14 | 26 | $5,306.91 | -$1,087.47 | -20.5% | |
| 15 | 24 | $5,572.21 | -$1,505.19 | -27.0% | |
| 16 | 26 | $6,716.63 | $420.05 | 6.3% | |
| 17 | 22 | $4,548.67 | $1,916.29 | 42.1% | |
| 18 | 5 | $817.81 | -$55.56 | -6.8% | |
| 19 | 6 | $1,238.09 | $492.73 | 39.8% | |
| 20 | 1 | $335.74 | $278.66 | 83.0% | |
| 21 | 0 | $- | $- | #DIV/0! | |
| Overlay | #Bets | #Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 0.05 | 0.075 | 49 | $3,200.60 | $715.87 | 22% |
| 0.075 | 0.1 | 50 | $4,716.13 | -$1,576.09 | -33% |
| 0.1 | 0.125 | 46 | $5,540.16 | -$214.38 | -4% |
| 0.125 | 0.15 | 44 | $6,459.60 | $673.41 | 10% |
| 0.15 | 0.175 | 31 | $5,450.41 | -$848.17 | -16% |
| 0.175 | 0.2 | 22 | $4,382.27 | $361.51 | 8% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 45 | $10,465.60 | -$990.55 | -9% |
| 0.25 | 0.3 | 43 | $12,377.35 | $1,491.92 | 12% |
| 0.3 | 0.5 | 54 | $21,357.45 | $3,111.05 | 15% |
| 0.5 | 2 | 7 | $3,916.60 | $577.96 | 15% |
| Week, Overlay >0.25 | #Bets | #Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 1 | 4 | $1,405.58 | $606.74 | 43.2% | |
| 2 | 2 | $658.90 | $595.54 | 90.4% | |
| 3 | 3 | $1,314.19 | -$353.19 | -26.9% | |
| 4 | 7 | $2,680.90 | $133.07 | 5.0% | |
| 5 | 2 | $887.49 | -$887.49 | -100.0% | |
| 6 | 5 | $1,889.03 | $604.68 | 32.0% | |
| 7 | 8 | $2,675.08 | $60.01 | 2.2% | |
| 8 | 9 | $3,025.32 | $178.18 | 5.9% | |
| 9 | 5 | $1,857.45 | $2.57 | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 1 | $295.99 | -$295.99 | -100.0% | |
| 11 | 8 | $2,453.53 | $280.19 | 11.4% | |
| 12 | 8 | $2,923.99 | $2,149.58 | 73.5% | |
| 13 | 6 | $1,748.01 | $718.86 | 41.1% | |
| 14 | 6 | $2,331.61 | -$357.29 | -15.3% | |
| 15 | 8 | $3,252.39 | -$932.55 | -28.7% | |
| 16 | 12 | $4,632.06 | $624.93 | 13.5% | |
| 17 | 7 | $2,644.70 | $1,709.73 | 64.6% | |
| 18 | 0 | $- | $0.00 | #DIV/0! | |
| 19 | 2 | $639.44 | $64.70 | 10.1% | |
| 20 | 1 | $335.74 | $278.66 | 83.0% | |
| 21 | 0 | $- | $0.00 | #DIV/0! |
Totals Data
| Week | #Bets | #Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | $2,565.06 | -$252.10 | -9.8% | |
| 2 | 22 | $3,724.93 | -$187.93 | -5.0% | |
| 3 | 22 | $3,621.36 | -$1,372.34 | -37.9% | |
| 4 | 16 | $2,175.13 | -$297.87 | -13.7% | |
| 5 | 19 | $3,163.41 | $121.83 | 3.9% | |
| 6 | 18 | $3,214.98 | -$25.03 | -0.8% | |
| 7 | 17 | $2,710.22 | $1,222.88 | 45.1% | |
| 8 | 18 | $3,004.15 | -$746.86 | -24.9% | |
| 9 | 18 | $2,562.75 | $704.59 | 27.5% | |
| 10 | 18 | $2,893.62 | $404.39 | 14.0% | |
| 11 | 20 | $3,006.14 | -$625.24 | -20.8% | |
| 12 | 19 | $2,817.73 | -$193.23 | -6.9% | |
| 13 | 18 | $2,876.97 | $88.75 | 3.1% | |
| 14 | 22 | $4,634.16 | $162.87 | 3.5% | |
| 15 | 21 | $3,700.95 | $576.23 | 15.6% | |
| 16 | 22 | $3,820.90 | $686.69 | 18.0% | |
| 17 | 24 | $4,442.35 | $225.26 | 5.1% | |
| 18 | 3 | $350.13 | -$78.37 | -22.4% | |
| 19 | 4 | $619.82 | $322.83 | 52.1% | |
| 20 | 2 | $203.10 | -$88.79 | -43.7% | |
| 21 | 0 | $- | $- | #DIV/0! | |
| Overlay | #Bets | #Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 0.05 | 0.075 | 58 | $3,821.70 | -$244.55 | -6% |
| 0.075 | 0.1 | 52 | $4,842.33 | -$40.02 | -1% |
| 0.1 | 0.125 | 42 | $4,946.36 | -$682.13 | -14% |
| 0.125 | 0.15 | 38 | $5,519.09 | $52.47 | 1% |
| 0.15 | 0.175 | 37 | $6,255.54 | $751.49 | 12% |
| 0.175 | 0.2 | 28 | $5,521.11 | -$1,672.98 | -30% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 31 | $7,184.02 | $1,792.54 | 25% |
| 0.25 | 0.3 | 24 | $6,820.08 | -$1,557.78 | -23% |
| 0.3 | 0.5 | 27 | $10,063.78 | $2,357.56 | 23% |
| 0.5 | 2 | 2 | $1,079.43 | -$53.62 | -5% |
| Week, Overlay >0.125 | #Bets | #Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 1 | 7 | $1,745.34 | -$91.61 | -5.2% | |
| 2 | 13 | $2,901.38 | -$225.30 | -7.8% | |
| 3 | 11 | $2,528.68 | -$1,485.25 | -58.7% | |
| 4 | 6 | $1,414.57 | $162.48 | 11.5% | |
| 5 | 12 | $2,593.28 | $220.74 | 8.5% | |
| 6 | 12 | $2,681.11 | $199.15 | 7.4% | |
| 7 | 9 | $2,111.08 | $1,022.48 | 48.4% | |
| 8 | 11 | $2,323.50 | -$700.47 | -30.1% | |
| 9 | 8 | $1,658.68 | $685.47 | 41.3% | |
| 10 | 9 | $1,992.38 | $721.87 | 36.2% | |
| 11 | 10 | $2,199.53 | -$346.57 | -15.8% | |
| 12 | 9 | $1,984.31 | -$133.19 | -6.7% | |
| 13 | 10 | $2,053.66 | $270.81 | 13.2% | |
| 14 | 18 | $4,264.98 | -$51.37 | -1.2% | |
| 15 | 11 | $2,737.15 | $528.63 | 19.3% | |
| 16 | 14 | $3,103.89 | $526.76 | 17.0% | |
| 17 | 14 | $3,559.02 | $202.62 | 5.7% | |
| 18 | 1 | $202.85 | -$202.85 | -100.0% | |
| 19 | 2 | $387.66 | $365.28 | 94.2% | |
| 20 | 0 | $- | $0.00 | #DIV/0! | |
| 21 | 0 | $- | $0.00 | #DIV/0! |
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