Sportpunter

The NBA season is set to start in just one day, and once again Sportpunter will be giving away predictions for free of charge. We’ve been running the model for 2 years now and have had some fantastic success. Last season we made 5% ROI betting the lines and 2.5% ROI betting the totals, with similar results the previous years.

What’s more, is that the model seems to do better earlier on in the season. Line or handicap betting, made 5% ROI in the first 6 weeks of the 2010/11 season, and an incredible 25% ROI of the first 6 weeks of the 2011/12 season. This from about 350 bets.

Totals betting also fared well at the start of the season. In 2010/11, we made 9.6% ROI from 474 bets for the first 14 weeks, whilst in 2011/12, the first 14 weeks netted 5.4% ROI from 345 bets. Full betting history results are shown here.

Clearly, the model has been very profitable, and especially earlier on in the season. With only a day to go, make sure you check out the free Sportpunter NBA predictions as shown here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/nba/

The NBL (Australian basketball) starts this Friday, and for the 7^th season in a row, Sportpunter will be providing predictions. No doubt it is one of our best models, and we also believe it is one of the weakest markets out there that we can exploit.

In 6 years that we have been providing suggested bets we have made over 11% ROI betting on the totals from over 500 bets as shown by the betting history here.  This includes an incredible 31.5% ROI profit last season. Head to head betting, hasn’t been quite as good, but a still very profitable 3.6% ROI has been made over the journey.

What is more pleasing, is that last year we decided to track handicap or line betting for the first year, and despite a small loss in h2h betting, a very nice 15% ROI was made betting the line. Seems to me this could be the way forward.

So with the season starting this weekend, and the short pre season already over, one should be getting on board as soon as possible. Click here for all the subscription options

The NFL season for 2012 has started round 1, with the first gameof round 2 set to start on Thursday  between the Bears and the Packers

Once again Sportpunter will be offering our predictions for every game, and if previous years records are to go by, we should have another profitable year. Full results are shown here for our model: http://www.sportpunter.com/result-history/nfl/ and these show that we recorded a 10% ROI profit betting the line and a 3.3% ROI profit betting the totals. In total over the two years we are up 5.5% ROI betting the line and 4.7% ROI betting the totals  from about 400 bets each respectively.

But interesting is how the model goes throughout the year. Whilst we only have a small sample size of two years, it might be interesting to see how the profits come in round by round. Shown below is the breakup of betting and profits for line and totals betting per round, followed by a brief summary.

Totals by round:

Line betting by round:

Clearly it shows that totals betting seems to go well from the word go, round 1, and if anything swindles a little later in the season. The opposite is true of line betting. Despite some big wins in round 3, it has taken until about mid-way through the season to show nice profits. Of course as I said, this is only a very small sample size, and one shouldn’t look into it as gospel, but there is good reason why the model might struggle a little early on with player movements between teams.

Either way, hopefully we get around the same type of success that we have had as previous years for what is one of the most popular bet sports in the world.

Click here: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/nfl/ to register your subscription for the upcoming 2012 season.

We previously looked at how well Sportpunter models had gone in the first half of this year. The results were very good indeed with the average bank increase of about 250% to 400% of your starting bank depending on your strategy. Now, we will look at the strategies and determine which is the best one – well at least discuss it with a little bit of data.

The following graph is how one would have gone betting a moving bank (after every week), different moving banks for each sport, and a constant bank for 1/15^th Kelly divisor. Considering that all methods are betting on the same bets, they all generally follow each other.

The moving bank scenario finished with the highest profit for the first six months for 2012 despite a lot more variability over that time. When things were going good, and you could put a few good weeks in a row together, this is when the moving bank strategy excelled. However, the contrary is also true. Given a losing streak, the moving bank suffered more so that the constant bank.  This is true also to some degree for the moving different banks, though hardly as extreme.

Of course how much profit one made during a certain amount of time is very dependent for the moving bank scenario on the last few weeks, whilst with a constant bank, as the name suggests, each week is consistently as important in the final profit amount.  However more interestingly is the graph below which shows the finished banks (from $10,000) for each of the three methods.

Clearly the above graph shows that the constant (and moving different bank method) are preferable in the first half of 2012 if the Kelly Divisor is less than about 12. For larger more conservative divisors, a moving bank is preferable.

Now naturally, the above analysis implies that you use the same Kelly Divisor on all the sports. One might decide against this as they are more confident on certain sports and sports models than others. But despite this, the point has been proven to some degree, that a constant bank is preferable for smaller and more risky Kelly Divisors, whilst a moving bank is more preferable for more conservative Kelly divisors.

This to me, makes logical sense. But what is the best Kelly divisors and strategies for all the sports? Well soon we shall be providing an excel spreadsheet for you to play around with, but next up we will be looking at the Sportpunter model’s record going back several years.

There’s been quite a lot of talk in the forum and elsewhere about how best to manage your money. Should you use a moving bank? Adjustable after every day, or every week or month? Or maybe just adjust at the end of the season.

Furthermore, this is a great opportunity to tell everyone how well, or bad, the Sportpunter models have gone in the first half of the year.

We’ve download all of the results from all our models in all our sports, and worked out how much we would have made this year, had we started the year with a $10,000 bank and betting every sport at various Kelly divisors. The sports that we have in the analysis is as follows:

• AFL – Line betting
• MLB – h2h
• MLB – totals
• NCAAB – totals
• NBA – line
• NBA – totals
• NBL – line
• NBL – totals
• Golf – h2h
• NHL – totals
• EU Ice – Line
• EU Ice – Totals
• EU Basketball – Line
• EU Basketball – Totals
• NFL – Line
• NFL – Totals
• NRL – h2h
• Super15s – h2h
• ATP – h2h
• WTA – h2h

Now of course, should one use slightly different combinations of sports one would come up with different results, but the main sports to bet on in my opinion are above, even though some are relatively new. Keep in mind that not all of the above sports provided a profit in the first half of 2012. NHL totals, EU Basketball totals, NRL, Super15s and WTA all provided reasonable losses. Whilst NFL totals and NCAAB Totals provided small losses from small turnover.

Firstly, the results of the Sportpunter’s models can be better shown using constant Kelly. From a $10,000 bank, the results of how one would have gone betting all of Sportpunter’s above models at various Kelly divisors is shown below in the graph.

The graph above shows that the finishing bank should end up somewhere between $27,000 to $44,000 (divisors 20 and 10), at the end of six months. This means a one would have finished the first half of the year, almost tripling your bank up to more than quadrupling it. Very good results indeed.

Once again, it must be stated that it is dependent on what odds you receive and what sports you bet, but the true significance of how good the Sportpunter models is, is shown above.

As an example, shown below is how the year panned out for someone betting at 1/15^th Kelly on all the sports.

In the next post, we will have a look at different Strategies, from Moving Banks, to separate banks for each sport, and will also give you the opportunity to download the Excel spreadsheet that gave the above (and next articles) data for you to play around with.

With the 2011/12 NBA season now complete and Miami Heat getting up to win, it’s probably time that we check out the Sportpunter NBA model and see how we went in this cut short season.

Results are good for the 2011/12 season, which backed up the record of the season prior. Line betting saw 522 bets made for a very healthy 4.8% return on investment. This is up from the borderline 0.7% ROI made the year before. A total of 1143 bets now have been made for 3.6% ROI as shown here.

Totals betting had 511 bets with a nice 2.5% ROI profit. Lower than the previous years of 5.4% ROI, but still good. Over 1000 bets in total at 4.7% ROI over two seasons is very pleasing indeed.

Head to head betting had some technical problems with odds not being readily available all the time. Hence only 165 bets were recorded at 2.4% ROI, but still in the 2 years we have had 621 bets at 3.4% ROI.

Either way, all h2h, totals and lines have made profit in each category and in each year, which is very pleasing indeed.

We should previously, that the model does especially good earlier in the season, and with this season starting late, it was hard to say how we would have gone. However results show that stopping betting after week 9 for h2h, week 7 for line betting and week 14 for totals provided the most profit. Quitting looking at the model at these times would have provided 26% ROI betting h2h, 22% ROI betting on the line and 5.4% ROI (with more bets) betting the totals.

Of course it is easy to say in hindsight when to stop betting the models predictions, but what is clear is that the advantage for the model is early on in the season.

Shown below is a short analysis of the 2011/12 season for NBA for totals betting. I shall summarise them here.

Firstly it looks as though the whole season went well, expect for the months of May and June. It seems like the model might not perform that well during the playoffs. There were lots of over bets during this time, and just like Ice Hockey and other American sports, it appears that lower scores could well appear during the playoffs (hence why more overs bets).

Interestingly overs lost 1% ROI overall, whilst unders betting made a staggering 15.9% ROI from 124 bets. As previously noted, we suggested a minimum 17.5% overlay betting the totals, and the same trend occurred again in 2011/12. Had we just bet totals at 17.5% overlay or greater, then we would have made 254 bets for a very handy 5.8% ROI. Not bad at all. If you had of averaged $1,000 a bet, then you would have profited over $14,000 for the year.

If you had stayed away from the playoffs as we previously suggested, then the profits would have been bigger. You would have made 226 bets for a very handy 7.3% ROI. Very nice. An average $1,000 bet would have netter you a season profit of $16,500. And that’s only totals betting.

So signs are good, and the model has performed well, and also has been consistent year to year in the two years operating. Hopefully this trend will continue.