Sportpunter

Could Gotye’s Somebody that I used to know be the biggest favourite of all time in hottest 100 history? Sportingbet opened up the song at 1.25 and it was quickly backed into 1.15, with the all other songs category at 5.00.

Perhaps the closest year where we saw the favourite galloping lengths ahead was in 1998 when The Offspring received more than twice as many votes for their song Pretty Fly (for a white guy) than Ben Lee who came in second spot. A great song, but one that was detested about a month later. It was all about timing that got the Offspring to first position, something that Gotye doesn’t have up his sleeve. Songs released later often do better, and Gotye’s Somebody that I used to know, was the second, but lead single of the album released in July.

That being said, Gotye did win the main J award just recently for the best Australian album, and it does seem hard for someone else to take the mantle in this years countdown.

So what other songs are a slight chance to knock Gotye off the top spot?

Boy and Bear with their song Feeding Line are probably the most likely to finish runners up, whilst Sparkadia’s Mary was often played on triple J. Art vs Science will no doubt round up the top 10 as per normal whilst the heavy dark electronic beats of Skrillex could do anything. They could finish top 5, or miss the top 100 altogether.

Speaking of top 5’s, no doubt closer to Australia day 2012, some of the books will open up top 5 and other betting options, so stay tuned for an update.

edit: Sportsbet have now realeased odds with Calvin Harris second favourite at 6.00 for feel so close, and boy and bear third favourite at 7.00 for feeding line. The full list of odds is available here, but I fear that the bet for the winner is almost a donation outside Gotye.

But if you want a really good list, then check this out. kBuck from bigfooty came up with his prediction list of the hottest 100 songs based on several variables like number of times played, you tube hits, previous bands record and his own expertise from listening constantly every day to triple j.

It’s an awesome list. The only thing I’m disappointed in is that there is no songs from English electro duo Lamb. Their album 5 was my album of the year, but unfortunately, and a little surprisingly was never played on the j’s.

Check out kBucks predictions below:

Gotye – Somebody that I use to know (feat. Kimbra) (1)
Boy and Bear – Feeding line (2)
Skrillex – First of the year (Equinox) (3)
Sparkadia – Mary (4)
Art vs Science – With thoughts (5)
Example – Changed the way you kiss me (6)
Florence and The Machine – What the water gave me (7)
Skrillex – Scary monsters and nice sprites (8)
Kimbra – Cameo lover (9)
Bon Iver – Calgary (10)
360 – Killer (11)
Calvin Harris – Feel so close (12)
Drapht – Bali party (13)
Calvin Harris – Bounce (feat. Kalis) (14)
Skream and Example – Shot yourself in the foot again (15)
Lana del Ray – Video games (16)
Kayne West and Jay z – Otis (17)
City and Colour – Natural disaster (top 10) (18)
Flight Facilities – Foreign language (feat. Jess) (19)
360 – Throw it away (feat. Josh Pyke) (20)
Architecture in Helsinki – Contact high (21)
The Wombats – Techno fan (22)
Emma Louise – Jungle (23)
Grouplove – Tongue tied (24)
The Grates – Turn me on (25)

Boy and Bear – Milk and sticks (26)
Benny Benassi ft. Gary Go – Cinema (Skrillex Remix) (27)
360 – Boys like you (feat. Gossling) (28)
Gotye – I feel better (29)
Ball Park Music – All I want is you (30)
Boy and Bear – Part time believer (31)
Seeker Lover Keeper – Even though I’m a woman (32)
Austra – Lose it (33)
Luke Million – Arnold (34)
The Wombats – 1996 (35)
Owl Eyes – Raiders (36)
James Blake – Limit to your love (37)
Grouplove – Itchin on a photograph (38)
City and Colour – Fragile bird (39)
Ellesquire – On the prowl (40)
Ball Park Music – It’s nice to be alive (41)
Nero – Me and you (42)
Art vs Science – A.I.M fire (43)
Cosmo Jarvis – Gay pirate (44)
Bluejuice – Act yr age (45)
Big Scary – Gladiator (46)
Drapht – Sing it (47)
Cosmo Jarvis – Sure as hell not Jesus (48)
Joe Goddard – Gabriel (feat. Valentina) (49)
Example – Stay awake (50)

Kimbra – Good intent (51)
Alex Metric – End of the world (feat. Charli XCX) (52)
Florence and The Machine – Shake it out (53)
Foster The People – Call it what you want (54)
Nero – Promises (55)
My Morning Jacket – Holding onto black metal (56)
Lykke Li – Rich kid blues (57)
The Jezabels – Trycolour (58)
New Navy – Zimbabwe (59)
Seeker Lover Keeper – Light all my lights (60)
Art vs Science – Higher (61)
Little Dragon – Ritual union (62)
Friendly Fires – Hawaiian air (63)
Aston Shuffle – Start again (64)
Mantra – Got me wrong (feat. Parvyn Kaur Singh) (65)
Joelistsics – Glorious feeling (66)
The Drums – Money (67)
The Jezabels – Rosebud (68)
M83 – Midnight city (69)
The Panics – Endless road (70)
Illy – Cigarettes (71)
Justice – Audio, video, disco (72)
Friendly Fires – Live those days tonight (73)
The Rapture – How deep is your love (74)
The Living End – The ending is just the beginning repeating (75)

Kele – What did I do (feat. Lucy Taylor) (76)
Oh Mercy – Stay please stay (77)
Kasabian – Days are forgotten (78)
Calling All Cars – Reptile (79)
Hunting Grounds – In colour (80)
The Strokes – Under the cover of darkness (81)
Hermitude – Speak of the devil (82)
Kimbra – Two way street (83)
Mr. Little Jeans – The suburbs (84)
Husky – History’s door (85)
Loon Lake – Bad to me (86)
Seeker Lover Keeper – Rely on me (87)
Katalyst – The clapping song (Feat. Coin Locker Kid) (88)
Radiohead – Lotus flower (89)
Eskimo Joe – Love is a drug (90)
Matt Corby – Brother (91)
Pnau – Solid ground (92)
SBTRK – Wildfire (93)
Papa vs Pretty – Darkest way (94)
Yuksek – Always on the run (95)
Vents – History of the world (96)
The Aston Shuffle – Won’t get lost (97)
Noah and The Whale – L.I.F.E.G.O.E.S.O.N. (98)
Snakadaktal – Chimera (99)
San Cisco – Awkward (100)

Basketball, it’s all about basketball. With tennis winding down and several sports like golf, taking a break during the festive season, basketball is the sport to bet on. And Sportpunter have it all covered for you!

European Basketball

We have just recently added over 30 different European leagues, and every day we will be releasing probabilities for them all. From France to Greece, Lithuania to Spain, probabilities from all major countries in Europe will be given with suggested bets. A betting history has been provided, and very soon we will have the big EuroLeague and EuroCup included as well.

What’s more it’s all free! Head here to the European Basketball page for more information: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/euro/

American College Basketball

It’s on again this year, and so far we have had 3 winning weeks. As our betting record shows, never before have we had a losing year for College Basketball. The predictions are given out at 3.30am and 9am AEDT every day, and are also completely free of charge. With over 7% ROI made from totals betting since 2003, and with a whole heap of bets every single day, it’s a sport that you should put in your portfolio. Why not! It’s free of charge!

Australian Basketball (NBL)

The Australian basketball season is well underway, but already the results have been nothing short of spectacular. Check them out here. So far this year we have made 8% ROI betting h2h, 13.7% ROI betting on the line and a staggering 42% ROI betting totals. In what I perceive to be a very inefficient market, there are huge opportunities to make money gambling on Sportpunter’s NBL model. Monthly passes are available on the NBL website as shown here.

NBA

And finally the NBA. Whilst it looked at though the season was all but done and dusted, now it seems we might start to get some games in about a months time. This works perfectly for us, because our records show that the first half of the season is where we profit the most. Now there is only a first half!

Whilst the model did end up 3.9% ROI up betting h2h and 5.4% ROI up betting totals last season, it was the first two months where the profits were reaped. After these two months we were up an amazing 8.7% and 12.3% ROI on h2h and totals betting respectively as shown here.

The NBA model, like the college basketball and Euro basketball is free of charge again this year, so make sure you follow the predictions.

Best of punting luck

Sportpunter.com

Could this year be one of the lowest scoring years in NHL history? Possibly, if pre season total scores are anything to go by. We have shown previously that pre season total scores are more closely correlated with the seasons average total scores than the previous seasons average. This analysis is shown here.

In fact the analysis as linked above shows that the average total score in the regular season is 0.47 goals lower than that years pre season. Shown in the table below are the average total scores for each regular season going back to 1989, and including the preseason total scores since 2005.

Note that since 1989 the average number of goals scored per match has steadily been decreasing, halted by a small upswing after the year off in 2005 when rules were changed to allow for more goals. Still, since 2005 the total number of goals has been steadily decreasing in the regular season. Last years average of 5.59 was only marginally higher than the previous lowest at 5.57 set in 2007.

But more interesting is the preseason average for 2011. At at average of only 5.33 goals per match, it is clearly the lowest we have seen; 0.31 goals per game lower than the previous lowest of 5.64 in 2009.

If our previous analysis is anything to go by, we could be set for an average regular season total score of up to 0.47 goals less than the preseason, in other words, an average of only 4.86 goals per match.

Our successful models have adjusted for this, and we look forward to the start of the season, hopefully making as many more profits this year as we have in the past.

To sign up to the Sportpunter NHL model or to view the prices click here. Our previous betting history going back to 2005 is available here.

Ice Hockey – NHL

The ice hockey season is on us again, and NHL is set to start on October 6^th, in just three days time. Sportpunter will be giving out their predictions as per normal, and a full analysis of the NHL will appear on the website before the start of the season.

Last year we made 5.8% ROI from over 330 bets for the year, and our total record since 2005 stands strong at 6.3% ROI from over 2500 bets. Full betting history shown here. This year will be hopefully as good as the past years, and you can sign up for 2011/12 at this link.

Australian Basketball – NBL

Australian Basketball starts this Friday the 7^th of October with the blockbuster of Melbourne vs Sydney. Sportpunter are once again giving out predictions for NBL with the added advantage that line betting predictions will also be given. Last year we failed to calculate the new team Sydney, and their level as accurately as we liked. This saw us have a loss in the head to head market, but the totals market made a very substantial 9.4% ROI from 90 bets.

All in all, since 2006/07, we have made a staggering 11.5% ROI betting head to head, whilst totals has made an extremely impressive 8.7% ROI. Full betting history shown here. Numbers like this prove that whilst Australian Basketball might be a small sport, the market is largely inefficient, and as Sportpunter clients, you have the ability to make the most of it. Click on this link to subscribe or view the options.

Best ever week of NFL

Whilst I haven’t calculated the results from last nights NFL, last week was surely the best ever week that our predictions have ever had. We correctly won the line from 9 of 10 bets, including some massive overlays. Totals recorded a small win to add to that as well. Line betting so far this year has made 13.6% ROI, and totals betting has kept in with the long term trend, picking up 19% ROI. Betting history shown here.

Amazing signs for the NFL model, and the best news is that it is a free service. Click here to find all the details about how to get your free subscription to the NFL model.

Pick of the day

For those not following Sportpunter’s pick of the day, you should be. Whilst we only give out between 1 and 5 picks each week, the record so far has been at a 20% return on investment. That’s 20% per bet, not overall, which means that had you been following your bank size would be well over the 20% mark. Follow Sportpunter on facebook or twitter to get your free picks of the day.

AFL Wrap up

Well the cats are the premiers in 2011 and it’s been another big year betting at Sportpunter. Whilst it is interesting that head to head bets failed to make a profit, line betting went through the roof again with big profits. A 13.7% ROI profit was made betting the AFL which makes the last three years all achieving a profit of over 13% ROI each year, and five of the last 7 years, achieving a profit of over 10% ROI.

In fact in total the profits for line betting since 2005 are at 10.3% ROI from nearly 1000 bets. So big are the profits, that had you started with a $10,000 bank back in 2005 and bet a very conservative 1/10^th Kelly, only changing your bank size at the end of the year, you would now have over $50,000. Had you been at 1/5^th Kelly, then you would have turned your $10,000 to over $170,000.

Of course not everyone would have the same results due to different odds being matched, and some preferring not to bet on certain matches, but the results are there, and you can’t argue with the stats.

The AFL model will be back next year, bigger and better than ever.

Make sure you also check out the free soccer predictions, as well as the free golf predictions which are also making big profits: 9.1% ROI this year to date from over 1500 bets! The forum is there to chat amongst other Sportpunter friends about your betting and the picks.

Best of punting luck

Jonathan Lowe

www.sportpunter.com