Sportpunter's AFL Weekly Analysis:

Round4

What a week in Round3. All line bets winning, and three outsiders winning, with Hawthorn missing out by a cats whisker, and no help from the goal umpires. And it looks like we are on them again.,

Hawthorn 66.6% overlay @ $4.35 vs Brisbane

Hawthorn might have lost last week, but injuries throughout the game have been terrible for the Hawks. This is the third week in a row that they have had 2 players who have been unable to basically get out on the track and have been injured basically from the first bounce. Their best mid-fielder, Sam Mitchell was injured last week and Hawthorn had to have him hobble around the ground because there was no-one else to replace him on the sidelines. Not to mention the goal that turned the game after Hawthorn were dominating up until the last quarter that was clearly dubious. Things aren't going perfectly right for the Hawks on the scoreboard at the moment, but there are exciting things going on the ground. All of their young recruits stepped up in a displace of youth that hasn't been seen at Glenferrie for several years. Now, Brisbane, on the other side, are an aging side no doubt. Their shock loss after being up by 5 goals against Sydney last week at home, would definetly be extremly disappointing for the team. The Hawks have lost their last 6 against the Lions, but most of them have been up north, and it's safe to say at the moment that Brisbane are travelling worse than they have in the last 4 years. They haven't played at the MCG since their loss in the grand final last year and are sitting at 1-3 for the year. Of course we only give the Hawks a 38% chance of winning here, so don't expect miricles. But teh overlay at big odds of $4.35 occurs mainly because of a question mark over Brisbane, especially if they are travelling down south.

Richmond 37.0% overlay @ $2.45 vs Fremantle

Well Richmond have proved worthy bets the past two weeks with two good wins to make up for the first round thrashing. Needless to say, the teams they have marginally defeated weren't exactly the best quality, but I would argue that when Fremantle play in Melbourne, the quality is very comparable. They've only won 4 of the last 19 games at the MCG but have surprisingly won 3 of their last 4 (no doubt because they were playing bottom of the ladder teams like Richmond,Collingwood,Kangas). However Richmond are a lot better than they were last year, and Fremantle I would argue around the same or slightly worse. Richmond have won 3 of their last 4 against Freo at the G and a reasonable overlay here suggests another good bet on the tiger army.

Wow, only two bets this week. I don't think we've only had two bets in the whole history of the AFL Model. Ohh well, that being said, despite them both being overlays, I think they are both very worthy.