Firstly, merry Christmas everyone. I hope everyone has a great and joyful time. 2011 was a good year, but 2012 will be better, and hopefully be fantastic for you as well.
What does 2012 hold in store? Well lots really. Apart from the normal sports that we have, we will introduce volleyball, handball and hopefully Australian Horse Racing.
There will be numerous improvements to all our models, and we will be offering totals betting and line betting options for tennis. For both men’s and women’s! Yep that’s right, a separate model for totals betting for tennis. This could be great news as Sportpunter clients will know that I do sometimes have the big edge with totals betting.
Baseball is set for a massive revamp as is soccer. If you haven’t checked the new Euro Hockey and Euro basketball then you should. They are free after all, and the betting history for Euro basketball in particular is just amazing to date.
The free college basketball tips are going well, and NBA is set to start on Christmas day! Golf will start again in the new year, with hopefully as good as results as 2011.
Totals betting histories and suggested bets will continue for AFL as well, and in 2012 we will have them for NRL and Rugby Union.
Free NFL predictions are still going staggeringly well. Know anyone else with free NFL predictions that are going as amazingly well based on finishing odds? I doubt it.
Oh and I almost forgot. Australian tennis open in Melbourne. My shout! Come along with me, pick my brain, watch some tennis and gulp down a drink or two. Email me or check out the forum for discussion.
All things are set for 2012. I’m excited at the prospects. I hope you are
Merry Christmas everyone and bring on the new year
Jonathan Lowe
www.sportpunter.com
]]>
Merry Christmas to all our sportpunter gamblers! To celebrate Christmas, we are giving a 10% discount for the Sportpunter all sports subscription for 2011. If you register before the 25th of December you will get the discount.
Well done to Jason Boyd who won a free AFL subscription for being a fan and posting the most comments at the new sportpunter facebook page. You too can become a fan. Click here to view the webpage: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Sportpunter/162437893783053?v=wall
Pick of the Day
Also on the facebook webpage is the pick of the day. Around 4-5 times a week we will be giving out a pick that comes from some of our best models. It’s a great way for new punters to follow the sportpunter predictions. A betting history will be provided to show how the picks are going each week.
Basketball Totals Betting
For those who are following the free NBA Basketball picks, you would be very happy to see that from over 250 bets this year, we have been making an extremely impressive 12.9% ROI. This means that even at a conservative 1/10th Kelly, you would have already more than doubled your bank. Pretty impressive for free predictions. Get all the betting history and free predictions here.
Check out my latest article about hedging a bet inplay. Is it worth while to hedge or not? The tennis season will start shortly after Christmas, with both models being massively updated. The golf season will start shortly, and soccer is forever continuing.
Merry Christmas to all, and have a great and profitable new year!
Jonathan
]]>
Just letting you know that Sportpunter has just started their own facebook webpage where you can be notified whenever a new article is released, or other important gambling information. The link is here:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Sportpunter/162437893783053?v=wall
Make sure you “like” the sportpunter page, and feel free to post any comments or suggestions.
]]>
Shown below is a bit more NBA analysis with regards to line betting for away and home teams.
This is the models suggested bets over the past few years. “AwayLine” refers to betting on the away team at the following line (the line for the away team), whilst “HomeLine” refers to betting on the home team at the line (the away line).
Confusing yes, but it just means betting the home or away team.
There’s not a lot to make of it which is a shame, higher prices overlays on away favourites seem to have done particularly good.
Line #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
-50 -5 405 181 44.7% $74,670.72 -$9,860.37 -13.2%
-5 -2 441 228 51.7% $77,170.80 -$3,040.56 -3.9%
-2 0 220 119 54.1% $40,907.01 $3,896.33 9.5%
0 1 748 748 100.0% $- $- #DIV/0!
1 3 364 186 51.1% $61,225.07 -$3,924.02 -6.4%
3 5 524 299 57.1% $91,641.80 $7,304.90 8.0%
5 7 584 316 54.1% $105,507.33 -$2,917.56 -2.8%
7 9 486 242 49.8% $94,316.71 -$7,744.10 -8.2%
9 12 482 262 54.4% $100,812.71 $3,491.41 3.5%
12 50 300 146 48.7% $67,040.16 -$424.36 -0.6%
4554 2727 59.9% $713,292.32 -$13,218.34 -1.9%
AwayLine #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
-50 -5 144 64 44.4% $20,687.88 -$1,596.41 -7.7%
-5 -2 223 115 51.6% $37,883.63 -$476.98 -1.3%
-2 0 118 65 55.1% $21,133.10 $1,541.78 7.3%
0 1 374 374 100.0% $- $- #DIV/0!
1 3 197 101 51.3% $33,964.80 -$1,703.13 -5.0%
3 5 333 180 54.1% $60,577.68 $1,167.36 1.9%
5 7 420 217 51.7% $82,932.90 -$4,464.32 -5.4%
7 9 355 176 49.6% $76,077.98 -$4,987.75 -6.6%
9 12 349 187 53.6% $82,160.84 $1,070.51 1.3%
12 50 229 117 51.1% $56,589.09 $1,016.77 1.8%
2742 1596 58.2% $472,007.91 -$8,432.17 -1.8%
HomeLine #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
-50 -5 261 117 44.8% $53,982.85 -$8,263.96 -15.3%
-5 -2 218 113 51.8% $39,287.17 -$2,563.58 -6.5%
-2 0 102 54 52.9% $19,773.91 $2,354.55 11.9%
0 1 374 374 100.0% $- $- #DIV/0!
1 3 167 85 50.9% $27,260.28 -$2,220.89 -8.1%
3 5 191 119 62.3% $31,064.12 $6,137.54 19.8%
5 7 164 99 60.4% $22,574.42 $1,546.76 6.9%
7 9 131 66 50.4% $18,238.73 -$2,756.35 -15.1%
9 12 133 75 56.4% $18,651.87 $2,420.89 13.0%
12 50 71 29 40.8% $10,451.07 -$1,441.13 -13.8%
1812 1131 62.4% $241,284.41 -$4,786.17 -2.0%
AwayLine Overlay>=17.5% #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
-50 -5 35 21 60.0% $9,055.66 $1,697.94 18.8%
-5 -2 80 42 52.5% $22,606.92 $745.54 3.3%
-2 0 51 28 54.9% $13,970.46 $1,600.46 11.5%
0 1 0 0 #DIV/0! $- $- #DIV/0!
1 3 73 35 47.9% $21,704.58 -$877.38 -4.0%
3 5 132 76 57.6% $40,295.24 $3,799.76 9.4%
5 7 214 105 49.1% $61,731.76 -$3,286.60 -5.3%
7 9 196 99 50.5% $58,811.50 -$2,352.06 -4.0%
9 12 195 100 51.3% $64,458.72 -$746.31 -1.2%
12 50 133 71 53.4% $45,018.08 $2,269.83 5.0%
1109 577 52.0% $337,652.91 $2,851.19 0.8%
HomeLine Overlay>=17.5% #Bets #Won %Won $Bet $Profit %ROI
-50 -5 121 55 45.5% $38,137.68 -$5,483.86 -14.4%
-5 -2 89 42 47.2% $26,338.09 -$2,438.52 -9.3%
-2 0 41 27 65.9% $13,108.17 $3,846.26 29.3%
0 1 0 0 #DIV/0! $- $- #DIV/0!
1 3 64 29 45.3% $17,547.38 -$1,087.02 -6.2%
3 5 68 43 63.2% $19,738.55 $5,543.05 28.1%
5 7 42 24 57.1% $12,244.18 $1,502.44 12.3%
7 9 38 17 44.7% $9,911.26 -$1,321.39 -13.3%
9 12 36 20 55.6% $9,077.54 $1,335.39 14.7%
12 50 18 8 44.4% $4,762.50 -$465.66 -9.8%
517 265 51.3% $150,865.36 $1,430.70 0.9%
Nadal’s form hasn’t been the greatest since the US Open. That sentence in itself is very debatable. I mean, after all, he won the AIG Open Tennis Championships in Japan and has a 8-2 win loss record. He did however lose both matched to 10-1 outsiders Melzer and Garcia-Lopez, and fended off several match points against, against Troicki in the semi finals in Japan.
Only a brave man would bet constantly against Nadal, but when its not clay, and its post US Open, there could be a case for it.
If we bet to win $1000 on Nadal for all his matches post US Open over the years (in the months of October and November), then we would have made 56 bets, and turned over $427,500 for a loss of $23,397. That’s a loss of around 5.5% ROI.
That’s not a massive loss, but if you were betting to win $1,000 against Nadal on all matches post US open then you would have still made 56 bets, but this time turned over $30,892. But more importantly, this time you would have profiteered $6057 for a % return of 19.6. Even if you do not consider his loss to Melzer last night – which is the reason for my enquiry – a 16% ROI profit would have been made.
The sample size of 56 bets is small, but it is something to think of. Perhaps his motivation isn’t quite the same as normal, or perhaps there is value for him off the red top. Either way, there could be an edge against Nadal and perhaps other high flyer players like Federer post US Open.
]]>
The NHL season is set to start for season 2010/2011. The past has been very good for us, as shown by the betting history, over a span of five years we have made 7.1% ROI betting on the totals. Last year wasn’t fantastic for us however, and the model has undergone some substantial adjustments, which will hopefully sort this out. More analysis will be shown on the front sportpunter page in the near future. The season begins on the 7/10/10 in just two days, so make sure that you sign up at the Sportpunter website to be part of it this season.
]]>
Finally, the AFL season has come to an end with Collingwood running away with the premiership cup. But pies fans were not the only one excited by their season. Sportpunter, it could be argued, also carried off the premiership cup with our biggest wins of any year since the model started in 1999.
Head to head betting won an incredible 26.1% ROI over the year whilst line betting on 17.2% ROI. Simply amazing stuff. Our biggest win of the year came later in the season in round 18, when we predicted Port Adelaide should be rightly favourites at home against the Hawks despite their odds of 3.39. The previous week they had managed to defeat Adelaide at home for another massive collect.
But our biggest line betting win came in the preliminary final, when we bet on the western bulldogs to win or lose by 27.5 points or less. It was the biggest line bet of the season, and at half time it was looking like a good one, with the bulldogs up by 6 points. However, the true saints team came to the front and they blitzed the dogs, and our bet seemed all but lost. Given that the saints had pretty much already won the bet, they decided to play one short on the ground. Consequently, the bulldogs kicked the last 21 points of the game, the final goal coming after the siren. Mitch Hahn had marked the ball 60 metres out when the siren went. He went for the big torp, which landed 25 metres out and bounced 10 times before going through the sticks. Any of the saints players could have stopped the ball, but it was of no consequence to them – they were already celebrating the victory.
And so was I. It was payback for a similar style bet that we lost at last years grand final.
But it was never luck that made the sportpunter AFL model win huge this year. The Sportpunter model has constantly made profits year after year, and we will be selling the predictions again next year. A full statistical analysis of the year is to come shortly.
We hope you got on board this year, and if not, we’ll see you next year no doubt!
For full Sportpunter AFL betting history, click here.
]]>
Supercoach and Dream Team for AFL football is a big passion of mine. So much so that I’m involved in several leagues that total an entry fee of over $1000. It’s high stakes fantasy and I feel as though I have an edge over some of my fellow competitors.
So from time to time, I will be giving out who I believe are big bargains and steals from round to round. Players who will increase in value and who you should pick up. And here they are listed below by position for Round 2:
Defenders
Nick Malceski, Syd (SC: $273.5k, DT: $242.8):
Had a shocking run with injury in his last two years with the swans, but looks to be back to his 2007 form where he averaged 21 possessions a game. His 25 disposals on the weekend against reigning minor premiers St. Kilda shows me that he’s back to his best.
Tadgh Kennelly, Syd (SC: $320.7k, DT: $204.7k):
Better value on dream team here, but fellow Sydneysider or Irishman Kennelly missed all of last year to be premiers for his Gaelic football team. He comes back here majorly underpriced, and 28 possessions in round 1 shows that he will only increase in value
Others: Alex Silvagnia (FRE), Matt Maguire (BRL), Beau Waters (WCE), Rick Ladson (HAW)
Midfielders
Michael Barlow, Fre (SC: $111.4k, DT: $105.8k):
If you haven’t got him in your side, then get him in now. He was prolific during the pre season and topped it up with a 33 possession 2 goal game on the weekend. He will go up massively.
Ryan Bastinac, Nth (SC: $94.2k, DT: $89.5k)
A very nice 23 disposals in the opening round, following up a very good preseason. The young midfield of the kangaroos are very impressive, it’s a pity of their lack of height and power and front and down back to match.
Others: Luke Shuey (WCE), Mitchell Banner (PTA), Todd Banfield (BRL), Ben Howlett (ESS)
Rucks
Mark Seaby, Syd (SC: $287.9k, DT: $226.7k)
With Jolly leaving the swans, Seaby now becomes the no. 1 ruckman for Sydney. This is massive for any fantasy footy follower, and his points in round 1 – 82 in both SC and DT) testify that he is good value. He should only go up in price.
Robert Warnock, CAR (SC: $132.2k, DT: $101.8l):
More value in dream team where he scored 85 points compared to 47 in supercoach. Even though, as second named ruckman for Carlton he will go up and up in value sitting nicely on your bench.
Others: Jackson Trengove (PTA), Brad Ottens (GEE)
Forwards:
Carl Peterson, Haw (SC: $100.2k, DT: $94.5k)
Stared in his first game for the hawks with 17 possessions and a goal. Ok sure it was against lowly Melbourne, but Peterson only played 57% of the game on the field. A little bit more and he should gain more points. But keep in mind, the hawks have to make way for Buddy and Bateman this week with Burgoyne lurking. Someone will have to make way
Eddie Betts, CAR (SC: $399.1k, DT: $274.3k)
Had a cracker of a pre season, and with no Judd for a while should rack up some more points. Betts has increased his average possessions every year since 2005, so signs are there that this could be his breakout year. 136/110 points last week showed us that he’s almost there.
Others: Patrick Dangerfield (ADE), Cameron Hitchcock (PTA), Chris Yarren (CAR), Hayden Ballantyne (FRE)
]]>
NRL Season is set to start this weekend, and as per normal, Sportsbet are coming to the rescue with great offers.
If you bet with them up to $100 on any head to head matches, then for the first bet that you place, if you team is up at half time but loses, then you get your money back. You can bet $100 on all 8 games and receive up to $800 back in free bets.
That easy.
Take for example the first match, Brisbane vs North Queensland. You can back Brisbane at 1.85 to win, which when normalised equates to a 51.5% chance for them to win. Similarly, with the half time full time markets, the odds for Queensland to defeat North Queensland yet still be down at half time is 6.75, which equates to a probability of 13.3%.
So given that, there is a real edge here, most likely betting on any team for $100.
It’s not a big gain, but if you aren’t a member of sportsbet, then if you sign up with the link below then you are also legible for another $100 free bet.
I’d say some of the bookmakers will have offers like this on the cards coming up to the start of the NRL and AFL seasons, so keep your eyes peeled.
Once you sign up look for the “Footy Fightback” link on the right hand side
]]>