Supercoach and Dream Team for AFL football is a big passion of mine. So much so that I’m involved in several leagues that total an entry fee of over $1000. It’s high stakes fantasy and I feel as though I have an edge over some of my fellow competitors.

So from time to time, I will be giving out who I believe are big bargains and steals from round to round. Players who will increase in value and who you should pick up. And here they are listed below by position for Round 2:

Defenders

Nick Malceski, Syd (SC: $273.5k, DT: $242.8):

Had a shocking run with injury in his last two years with the swans, but looks to be back to his 2007 form where he averaged 21 possessions a game. His 25 disposals on the weekend against reigning minor premiers St. Kilda shows me that he’s back to his best.

Tadgh Kennelly, Syd (SC: $320.7k, DT: $204.7k):

Better value on dream team here, but fellow Sydneysider or Irishman Kennelly missed all of last year to be premiers for his Gaelic football team. He comes back here majorly underpriced, and 28 possessions in round 1 shows that he will only increase in value

Others: Alex Silvagnia (FRE), Matt Maguire (BRL), Beau Waters (WCE), Rick Ladson (HAW)

Midfielders

Michael Barlow, Fre (SC: $111.4k, DT: $105.8k):

If you haven’t got him in your side, then get him in now. He was prolific during the pre season and topped it up with a 33 possession 2 goal game on the weekend. He will go up massively.

Ryan Bastinac, Nth (SC: $94.2k, DT: $89.5k)

A very nice 23 disposals in the opening round, following up a very good preseason. The young midfield of the kangaroos are very impressive, it’s a pity of their lack of height and power and front and down back to match.

Others: Luke Shuey (WCE), Mitchell Banner (PTA), Todd Banfield (BRL), Ben Howlett (ESS)

Rucks

Mark Seaby, Syd (SC: $287.9k, DT: $226.7k)

With Jolly leaving the swans, Seaby now becomes the no. 1 ruckman for Sydney. This is massive for any fantasy footy follower, and his points in round 1 – 82 in both SC and DT) testify that he is good value. He should only go up in price.

Robert Warnock, CAR (SC: $132.2k, DT: $101.8l):

More value in dream team  where he scored 85 points compared to 47 in supercoach. Even though, as second named ruckman for Carlton he will go up and up in value sitting nicely on your bench.

Others: Jackson Trengove (PTA), Brad Ottens (GEE)

Forwards:

Carl Peterson, Haw (SC: $100.2k, DT: $94.5k)

Stared in his first game for the hawks with 17 possessions and a goal. Ok sure it was against lowly Melbourne, but Peterson only played 57% of the game on the field. A little bit more and he should gain more points. But keep in mind, the hawks have to make way for Buddy and Bateman this week with Burgoyne lurking. Someone will have to make way

Eddie Betts, CAR (SC: $399.1k, DT: $274.3k)

Had a cracker of a pre season, and with no Judd for a while should rack up some more points. Betts has increased his average possessions every year since 2005, so signs are there that this could be his breakout year. 136/110 points last week showed us that he’s almost there.

Others: Patrick Dangerfield (ADE), Cameron Hitchcock (PTA), Chris Yarren (CAR), Hayden Ballantyne (FRE)

If you bet with them up to $100 on any head to head matches, then for the first bet that you place, if you team is up at half time but loses, then you get your money back. You can bet $100 on all 8 games and receive up to $800 back in free bets.

That easy.

Take for example the first match, Brisbane vs North Queensland. You can back Brisbane at 1.85 to win, which when normalised equates to a 51.5% chance for them to win. Similarly, with the half time full time markets, the odds for Queensland to defeat North Queensland yet still be down at half time is 6.75, which equates to a probability of 13.3%.

So given that, there is a real edge here, most likely betting on any team for $100.

It’s not a big gain, but if you aren’t a member of sportsbet, then if you sign up with the link below then you are also legible for another $100 free bet.

I’d say some of the bookmakers will have offers like this on the cards coming up to the start of the NRL and AFL seasons, so keep your eyes peeled.

Once you sign up look for the “Footy Fightback” link on the right hand side

Betfair

If for example, we bet on five tennis players at 1.10 and lets assume that there is an 89% chance that each one of them will get up, this gives the bookmaker with a 2.1% edge.

However, the chances of all five coming home are 0.89^5 = 56%. The chances of four getting home is 5 * 0.89^4 * 0.11 = 34.5%. The odds one would get multing five 1.10 players together is 1.61

Hence, the expected return from a $20 bet is equal to $4.89. That means you have a 24% edge using the free return of the bet if four get through.

Only $20 can be refunded, and the bets have to be all on tennis. Click here to bet with betfair.

Stan James

In other news PinnacleSports CEO has resigned, so maybe Pinnacle will get a new face lift?

The US might be getting an internet facelift as a new study has shown that the internet gambling ban has failed. Up to $42 billion could be gained by the government if sensible online gambling is allowed and monitored, according to this study.

All the signs are there, that US Gambling will come back. Betfair has even set up an operation in the US for the projected online gambling arrival. And why not when the forecasted online gambling turnover is expected to skyrocket as shown here. Check out the graph.

Either way, punters winning, more bookmaker competition and the US back in the market, all spells good news.

The only company spitting chips is strangely enough, betfair, who currently pay a 15% tax rate in Tasmania. The tax free fee is estimated to save bookmakers almost a quarter of a million per year, and this means we might well see either bookmakers heading down to the apple isle, or relaxed tax laws in the remainder of Australia.

What does it mean for us gamblers? Well better competition is great for us, and with bookmakers paying less tax, this means that we should see better prices or at least better signup options. Either way, weakening of any governmental influence on gambling has got to be good.