Click here for a full list of every sports type offered by Sportpunter and how they have gone since the beginning.

As you can see it’s a great list. Number 1 on the list is Men’s tennis, which is only one win away from making the $100,000 profit amount. This year alone has been incredible with 17% ROI made so far this year and profits already outweighing the entire 2011. Women’s tennis comes in a close second, but there are some other surprising results in the mix.

College Basketball has done incredibly well over the years with a large number of bets, whilst AFL is very high on the list for per cent return for H2H and line betting.

All the basketball models have proved successful, with NBA making around 2 to 5%, Euro making 4 to 12% and NBL making 5% on h2h and 11% on the totals.

NFL has been fantastic, constantly making around 4-5% on both the line and the totals, and golf, despite only making 3.2% over a large number of bets, made 7% last year and this year to date is on a lazy 18% return.

Probably more interesting is the last year’s results. These are shown here:

Straight up it shows the variability in the models, with some making a profit and some a loss. However a summation of all the results shows a $51,000 profit at 6% ROI.

The standout leader has been golf, which made the most profit of $15,000 and is actually free on the website. Men’s tennis comes in second closely followed by NBA Lines. NFL lines and AFL lines make around $4,000 to $5,000 profit as does college basketball.

Not performing great last year were Baseball and women’s tennis. NHL, NBA totals  and NRL had minimal losses, and apart from the AFL h2h loss (which shows the variability in betting as the line betting was massively positive), all other models recorded profits last year.

With so many models doing well at Sportpunter, we home that you will jump on board and follow the results.

Best of punting Luck

Sportpunter

Its common knowledge that the more one sided a game is, the more likely it is that the total amount of games played in the match will be lower. However, given the independence of this on our predictions, we have decided to make a totals betting model based on the actual odds (as well of course, many other variables).

This is so that you may bet with knowledge that the overlay that occurs on the totals in not dependant on the overlay that you have on the player. Slowly we are going to be bringing these predictions to you, and at the moment we’ve done some detailed analysis on mens tennis and the results look good as shown below:

BetType	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
Over	649	332	51.2%	$89,782.96	$5,108.89	5.7%
Under	3054	1658	54.3%	$413,870.56	$50,564.46	12.2%
	3703	1990	53.7%	$503,653.52	$55,673.35	11.1%
Sets	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
3	2582	1355	52.5%	$293,386.13	$26,118.68	8.9%
5	1121	635	56.6%	$210,267.39	$29,554.67	14.1%
	3703	1990	53.7%	$503,653.52	$55,673.35	11.1%
Surface
Clay	994	541	54.4%	$133,681.89	$15,500.21	11.6%
Grass	464	258	55.6%	$67,510.27	$9,595.70	14.2%
Hard	1575	830	52.7%	$223,346.71	$21,170.34	9.5%
Carpet	64	37	57.8%	$8,841.63	$862.46	9.8%
I.hard	606	324	53.5%	$70,273.01	$8,544.63	12.2%
	3703	1990	53.7%	$503,653.52	$55,673.35	11.1%

Firstly, the 11% ROI is just amazing considering we are using Pinnacle’s own odds to judge the evenness of the match. Clearly, it is our other variables that are creating the overlays and positive expectaction. We have over 80% of the bets on the unders as opposed to overs (which is common in most sports), and have a great track record of best of 3 sets and best of 5 sets.

Profits are just as good on different court surfaces which is also encouraging. Females totals betting is the next step, and along with the new line betting markets, 2012 should be a great year for tennis subscribers.

Click here to see the prices or to subscribe to Tennis in 2012

How close a game is supposed to be will be a large factor in the amount of games, as it is more likely that when Federer plays Joe Blow that the match will only go to two sets as opposed to two relatively even players.

Surface type is another factor, with clay court recording less games per set compared to grass.

But are there certain players who, because of their style of play, play a larger number of games than normal per set?

Yes there are not counting the last set of grand slams that play to advantage, we can work out what players play on average the most games per set, and what players play the least. I have worked out ratings dating back to 2006, which take into consideration the evenness of the contest the surface and a few other facts.The results are below:

Players with most games per set.

1. Ivo Karlovic – 10/8/11

The big serving Croat is not surprisingly number one on the list. He is the tallest player ever to play on the ATP circuit and has the world record for the fastest serve. Therefore its hard to break his serve, and considering that he isn’t top 5 material, he obviously finds it hard to break his opponents serve. On the 10/8/11 he won a gruelling 3 set match against Petzschner with the scoreline 6-7 7-6 7-6. Thus being the maximum amount of games in a best of 3 set match. In fact in the last 9 completed matches before this one, they all included a tiebreak. At this point, he was averaging 3.12 games above normal per set, adjusted for service and form.

2. John Isner – 23/7/11

Another big server John Isner comes in second. At this stage, he defeated Gilles Muller 7-5 6-7 6-1, the last set being surprisingly small in regards to games played. However he did play 15 tiebreaks in his previous 12 matches, and who can ever forget that he has the record for the longest tennis match ever recorded against Nicolas Mahut at Wimbledon 2010: 6-4 3-6 6-7 7-6 70-68

3. Ivan Ljubicic – 17/4/09
4. Andy Roddick – 21/9/07
5. Chris Guccione – 1/8/11

And for the opposites? Players who play as little games per set as possible? Surface and form adjusted?

1. David Ferrer – 15/7/7

Whilst being in the best form of his life, it was in mid 2007 where he got to a stage where he would either dominate sets or lose them quick. The match on the 15/7/7 was the final of the Swedish Open of which he won. And he won relatively easily too: 6-1 6-2. In the five matches that he played that tournament he played 11 sets at an average 7.72 games per set. That means on average he either won or lost 6 to 1.72 each set. That’s very low indeed

2. Christophe Rochus – 18/9/09

Christophe Rochus, now retired, might have been a fighter, but at only 170cm tall, he is very small fish on the tennis circuit. He was talented, but his lack of height meant that his serve was always weak and dominate players would play all over him and win sets easily. Counter to that, is when Rochus would play someone who wasn’t as talented as himself, he would dominate and win sets easily. Either way, sets were hardly ever in the balance for Rochus, and that’s why he makes this list

3. Olivier Rochus – 8/7/10

Similar to above, the younger and 5cm smaller brother has exactly the same issues. A talented gutsy player no doubt. Just, well…too small.

4. Nikolay Davydenko – 5/11/06
5. Filippo Volandri – 23/9/11

Subscribe to the Sportpunter tennis model for the year 2012 or view the prices by clicking here.

As shown fro the official betting history, we made a very nice 5.8% ROI over the season. The playoffs let us down betting the totals, and we will analyse how we did betting in the regular season.

The following are the results for the whole season. Records differ from that as given by the official betting history a little bit due to some technical errors, however the main analysis of certain overlays and trends should still be able to be referenced.

TOTALS
Overs	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
5	87	40	46%	$9,279.86	$501.41	5%
5.5	117	58	50%	$8,695.33	$538.52	6%
6	7	2	29%	$597.07	-$143.11	-24%
TOTAL	211	100	47%	$18,572.26	$896.83	4.8%
Unders	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
4.5	0	0		$-	$-
5	4	2	50%	$304.57	$239.99	79%
5.5	91	48	53%	$7,260.11	$575.77	8%
6	3	2	67%	$247.27	$102.38	41%
TOTAL	98	52	53%	$7,811.95	$918.14	11.8%
Overlay	Over+Under	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
5.0%	6.5%	100	50	50%	$5,881.86	$427.57	7%
6.5%	8.0%	70	36	51%	$5,015.49	$518.52	10%
8.0%	10.0%	59	28	47%	$5,549.93	$241.73	4%
10.0%	12.0%	39	17	44%	$4,239.25	-$43.44	-1%
12.0%	15.0%	29	16	55%	$3,742.56	$840.42	22%
15.0%	20.0%	9	5	56%	$1,373.40	$225.24	16%
20.0%	500.0%	3	0	0%	$581.71	-$395.07	-68%
	TOTAL	309	152	49%	$26,384.21	$1,814.96	6.9%
Overlay	Over	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
5.0%	6.5%	61	30	49%	$3,594.30	$273.89	8%
6.5%	8.0%	47	24	51%	$3,387.90	$356.30	11%
8.0%	10.0%	42	21	50%	$3,963.78	$529.60	13%
10.0%	12.0%	31	12	39%	$3,423.41	-$291.94	-9%
12.0%	15.0%	20	9	45%	$2,570.78	$180.69	7%
15.0%	20.0%	8	4	50%	$1,228.21	$65.54	5%
20.0%	500.0%	2	0	0%	$403.88	-$217.25	-54%
	TOTAL	211	100	47%	$18,572.26	$896.83	4.8%
Overlay	Under	#Bets	#Wins	%Wins	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
5.0%	6.5%	39	20	51%	$2,287.56	$153.68	7%
6.5%	8.0%	23	12	52%	$1,627.59	$162.22	10%
8.0%	10.0%	17	7	41%	$1,586.15	-$287.87	-18%
10.0%	12.0%	8	5	63%	$815.84	$248.49	30%
12.0%	15.0%	9	7	78%	$1,171.78	$659.73	56%
15.0%	20.0%	1	1	100%	$145.19	$159.71	110%
20.0%	500.0%	1	0	0%	$177.83	-$177.83	-100%
	TOTAL	98	52	53%	$7,811.95	$918.14	11.8%

Profits show a greater return for betting the unders bets than the overs. In fact an incredible 11.8% ROI was made betting the unders, and a very respectable 4.8% ROI was made betting the overs. Profits were made in general betting all lines for totals, however note that almost all the bets were made betting the at the line of 5.5. There were almost twice as many over bets as under bets which is surprising.

The minimum overlay of 5% seems to be justified here, with profits being relatively consistent. There were 3 bets with 20%+ overlays all of which lost, however I doubt much can be looked at into this.

All in all, it looks like, if 2011/2012 is anything like the previous year then we should be in for a very good season indeed. Analysis into the last five or so years, which should give us a broader range of analysis will be shown tomorrow.

If you want to subscribe to Sportpunter’s NHL model in 2011/2012 or if you simply wish to view the prices, then click here.

The Sportspunter tennis model has never seen a better week that the one just gone, the first week of the US Open. It was the massive outsiders that came up trumps in both the men’s and the women’s tournaments. For the men we had big winners on Junqueira (5.23), Ferrero (5.23),  Monaco (4.23), Muller (4.01), Kunitsyn (3.73) and Sock (3.04). The womens tournament weren’t without their share of winners with Pennetta (5.17), Lucic (4.05) and Soler-Espinosa (2.80), along with plenty of odds on favourites winning.

The men’s tennis model is now up 5% ROI for the year, and incredibly up 9% since the Australian Open earlier in the year, and has profits of 14% ROI for the past two months. The women’s model also has profits of 6% ROI since mid June this year.

There are just a couple of months of tennis left to go in the year, so there’s every opportunity to jump on board while the going is good. Click here for more information or here for the betting results.

NFL set to start this Thursday

Sportpunter’s NFL season is set to start this Thursday. And once again it will be free of charge for the first few weeks of the year. Last year, in our inaugural year for the model, we made a decent profit. We only just made a very small profit in head to head betting (0.2%), but did very well on the totals, tallying up 6.8% ROI. Not bad for late lines!

One of the benefits of the NFL model is that it takes into considering weather, which has a large effect on teams as well as scoring opportunities.

This year we will hopefully do as good or better as last year, and all the details for the up coming season is shown on the website here. An analysis of last years results will be on the website shortly.

Full betting histories are available here: http://www.sportpunter.com/result-history/basketball-results/nba/

We previously did some articles on release of the new model outlining how we thought the model would go. We showed here and here that betting on the line should prove marginal profits, which is what we achieved last year. We predicted that totals should achieve around the 1.5% to 4.5% results. This year outperformed previous results which is good to see.

We also predicted that most of the profits would come in the early stages of the season which is what we found in the 2010/11 season. Unfortunately I was unable to gain head to head odds before the start of the year, however with head to head results performing better than the line betting this season, this might be the way to go in the future.

Either way, a very good start to the model, and we should hopefully see better results to come in future years. A full statistical analysis shall be performed closer to the start of the next season.

That being said, it has been another successful season for NHL. Totals betting was once again the key market, with the Sportpunter model making a very impressive 5.8% ROI throughout the year. The playoffs weren’t so kind however. Before the playoffs took place we were winning at a rate of 7.6% ROI.

Since 2005 we have made 6.3% ROI, so this years record is on par with the long term average. Full results available here.

Still a very successful NHL season, and I am looking forward to next season where hopefully the long term positive trend will continue.

But how did Sportpunter’s NBL model go? Our totals betting seemed to go very well, picking up from a slump early in the season to finish off with a very impressive 9.4% ROI from 90 bets. However the amount won was similar to the amount lost on head to head betting.

Shown below is the amount that we bet for and bet against certain teams throughout the year:

Clearly we lost a lot betting on new team Sydney, whilst losing the most money betting against the premiership team New Zealand which is disappointing as they won their last 5 matches of the previous season.

Whilst there still is fantastic value I believe in the NBL model, I will be looking towards making the model quickly reflect off season changes in teams. As far as totals go however, I have no reason to suggest that they wouldn’t continue to be very profitable in what would have to be a very inefficient market.

Predictions are generally given out around 5pm AEST, so it should suit most punters here and around the world.

To sign up to Sportpunter’s and Crdog’s MLB model or to view the prices click here.

Anaheim Angels 76.8

Baltimore Orioles 80.9

Boston Red Sox 103.4

Cleveland Indians 67.4

Chicago White Sox 81.6

Detroit Tigers 88.5

Kansas City Royals 66.9

Minnesota Twins 82.1

New York Yankees 90.4

Oakland Athletics 87.8

Seattle Mariners 72.1

Tampa Bay Devil Rays 84.2

Texas Rangers 90.1

Toronto Blue Jays 76.2

ATL 85.5

PHI 92.7

WAS 73.8

NYM 78.4

FLA 79.5

HOU 60.6

CHC 84.4

STL 87.8

CIN 88.3

MIL 80.3

PIT 70.6

SD 73.2

SF 91.0

ARI 77.6

COL 81.8

LA 79.0

But of course, the big news is is that Sportpunter will once again be releasing top quality sports predictions for every single game. AFL is arguably Sportpunter’s best model and the results speak for themselves. As shown here, we have been predicting AFL since 1999 and have averaged 11.2% ROI. The last two years, and three of the last four years have averaged over 20% ROI. 2010 was the most profitable year since we started betting and so there is no reason why the results will not, once again, come in our favour.

Currently we have the season predictions up on the website with probability of premiership, final 4, final 8 and wooden spoon. We also believe we have a good grasp on the new team Gold Coast who enter the competition fresh this year.

If ever you are going to join up to a Sportpunter model, then the AFL model is the one! Even if you don’t understand anything about AFL football in Australia, simply just follow the bets as suggested and watch the profits come in.

To sign up or view the prices to Sportpunter’s AFL Model in 2011 click here.

Shown below is a full analysis of how the AFL Model has gone. It shows that betting on home teams does better than betting on teams playing away. It also seems to be profitable in all sorts of probability and odds ranges. Whats more, is that the greater the overlay, the greater the profit, with over 20% ROI being made when the overlay is greater than 40%. A minimum overlay of 7.5%, instead of the standard 5% could be a reasonable alternative.

Prob		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.1	7	0	0.0%	$111.18	-$111.18	-100.0%
0.1	0.2	58	6	10.3%	$2,528.65	$634.23	25.1%
0.2	0.3	130	32	24.6%	$8,992.28	$2,059.84	22.9%
0.3	0.4	197	65	33.0%	$19,927.51	$3,877.75	19.5%
0.4	0.5	201	88	43.8%	$26,281.72	$4,551.84	17.3%
0.5	0.6	263	134	51.0%	$43,517.53	$4,360.87	10.0%
0.6	0.7	246	133	54.1%	$51,745.34	$338.76	0.7%
0.7	0.8	212	154	72.6%	$58,648.92	$9,756.58	16.6%
0.8	0.9	129	107	82.9%	$49,961.75	$7,750.18	15.5%
0.9	1	20	19	95.0%	$11,086.78	$1,236.91	11.2%
		1463	738	50.4%	$272,801.67	$34,455.78	12.6%
Odds		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
1	1.4	123	106	86.2%	$42,406.54	$4,629.21	10.9%
1.4	1.6	159	116	73.0%	$43,970.40	$5,310.43	12.1%
1.6	1.8	178	117	65.7%	$41,173.59	$7,444.07	18.1%
1.8	2	150	81	54.0%	$29,814.39	$653.78	2.2%
2	2.2	122	67	54.9%	$21,850.79	$3,084.80	14.1%
2.2	2.5	145	69	47.6%	$25,874.51	-$427.90	-1.7%
2.5	3	139	65	46.8%	$20,236.77	$7,007.44	34.6%
3	3.5	121	41	33.9%	$15,804.68	$2,594.31	16.4%
3.5	5	178	52	29.2%	$20,038.19	$1,990.83	9.9%
5	20	148	24	16.2%	$11,631.81	$2,168.80	18.6%
		1463	738	50.4%	$272,801.67	$34,455.78	12.6%
Overlay		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	192	107	55.7%	$24,292.16	-$570.58	-2.3%
0.075	0.1	180	114	63.3%	$24,788.55	$3,607.46	14.6%
0.1	0.125	141	84	59.6%	$24,597.76	$3,781.07	15.4%
0.125	0.15	128	71	55.5%	$23,160.13	$1,286.12	5.6%
0.15	0.2	197	110	55.8%	$36,976.66	$6,477.74	17.5%
0.2	0.25	128	58	45.3%	$24,002.37	$2,974.78	12.4%
0.25	0.3	131	62	47.3%	$30,027.60	$2,952.85	9.8%
0.3	0.4	152	57	37.5%	$34,848.27	$1,368.33	3.9%
0.4	0.6	135	52	38.5%	$31,108.35	$8,733.69	28.1%
0.6	3	79	23	29.1%	$18,999.83	$3,844.32	20.2%
		1463	738	50.4%	$272,801.67	$34,455.78	12.6%
Home
Prob		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.1	0	0	#DIV/0!	$-	$-	#DIV/0!
0.1	0.2	14	0	0.0%	$689.66	-$689.66	-100.0%
0.2	0.3	50	13	26.0%	$3,606.15	$768.37	21.3%
0.3	0.4	76	29	38.2%	$7,694.03	$4,324.32	56.2%
0.4	0.5	86	40	46.5%	$11,122.11	$3,254.22	29.3%
0.5	0.6	142	76	53.5%	$24,329.86	$3,834.27	15.8%
0.6	0.7	152	89	58.6%	$31,129.02	$2,105.66	6.8%
0.7	0.8	133	100	75.2%	$37,333.19	$7,439.33	19.9%
0.8	0.9	103	87	84.5%	$39,923.92	$6,772.12	17.0%
0.9	1	19	18	94.7%	$10,494.24	$1,118.40	10.7%
		775	452	58.3%	$166,322.18	$28,927.03	17.4%
Odds		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
1	1.4	103	89	86.4%	$36,625.25	$3,924.39	10.7%
1.4	1.6	102	81	79.4%	$29,683.10	$6,352.59	21.4%
1.6	1.8	115	79	68.7%	$26,225.43	$6,542.39	24.9%
1.8	2	94	52	55.3%	$19,231.55	-$182.16	-0.9%
2	2.2	63	38	60.3%	$12,502.79	$3,555.62	28.4%
2.2	2.5	65	28	43.1%	$11,954.11	-$1,357.34	-11.4%
2.5	3	68	36	52.9%	$10,051.86	$5,249.57	52.2%
3	3.5	52	19	36.5%	$8,115.58	$1,976.58	24.4%
3.5	5	65	22	33.8%	$7,524.30	$2,566.46	34.1%
5	20	48	8	16.7%	$4,408.22	$298.94	6.8%
		775	452	58.3%	$166,322.18	$28,927.03	17.4%
Overlay		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	113	71	62.8%	$18,536.18	-$143.42	-0.8%
0.075	0.1	105	77	73.3%	$16,472.33	$3,526.09	21.4%
0.1	0.125	80	51	63.8%	$16,662.98	$2,240.83	13.4%
0.125	0.15	72	44	61.1%	$15,365.13	$1,452.47	9.5%
0.15	0.2	100	61	61.0%	$22,220.94	$3,786.94	17.0%
0.2	0.25	68	38	55.9%	$15,241.93	$3,822.44	25.1%
0.25	0.3	65	38	58.5%	$17,184.99	$4,080.20	23.7%
0.3	0.4	71	31	43.7%	$18,672.07	$1,943.73	10.4%
0.4	0.6	66	31	47.0%	$17,003.27	$7,270.56	42.8%
0.6	3	35	10	28.6%	$8,962.36	$947.19	10.6%
		775	452	58.3%	$166,322.18	$28,927.03	17.4%
Away
Prob		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.1	7	0	0.0%	$111.18	-$111.18	-100.0%
0.1	0.2	44	6	13.6%	$1,838.99	$1,323.88	72.0%
0.2	0.3	80	19	23.8%	$5,386.13	$1,291.47	24.0%
0.3	0.4	121	36	29.8%	$12,233.48	-$446.57	-3.7%
0.4	0.5	115	48	41.7%	$15,159.61	$1,297.62	8.6%
0.5	0.6	121	58	47.9%	$19,187.67	$526.60	2.7%
0.6	0.7	94	44	46.8%	$20,616.31	-$1,766.90	-8.6%
0.7	0.8	79	54	68.4%	$21,315.74	$2,317.25	10.9%
0.8	0.9	26	20	76.9%	$10,037.83	$978.06	9.7%
0.9	1	1	1	100.0%	$592.54	$118.51	20.0%
		688	286	41.6%	$106,479.48	$5,528.75	5.2%
Odds		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
1	1.4	20	17	85.0%	$5,781.28	$704.82	12.2%
1.4	1.6	57	35	61.4%	$14,287.30	-$1,042.16	-7.3%
1.6	1.8	63	38	60.3%	$14,948.16	$901.68	6.0%
1.8	2	56	29	51.8%	$10,582.84	$835.93	7.9%
2	2.2	59	29	49.2%	$9,348.00	-$470.81	-5.0%
2.2	2.5	80	41	51.3%	$13,920.40	$929.44	6.7%
2.5	3	71	29	40.8%	$10,184.90	$1,757.87	17.3%
3	3.5	69	22	31.9%	$7,689.11	$617.74	8.0%
3.5	5	113	30	26.5%	$12,513.89	-$575.62	-4.6%
5	20	100	16	16.0%	$7,223.59	$1,869.87	25.9%
		688	286	41.6%	$106,479.48	$5,528.75	5.2%
Overlay		#Bets	#Won	%Won	$Bet	$Profit	%ROI
0	0.075	79	36	45.6%	$5,755.98	-$427.15	-7.4%
0.075	0.1	75	37	49.3%	$8,316.22	$81.36	1.0%
0.1	0.125	61	33	54.1%	$7,934.78	$1,540.24	19.4%
0.125	0.15	56	27	48.2%	$7,795.00	-$166.35	-2.1%
0.15	0.2	97	49	50.5%	$14,755.72	$2,690.80	18.2%
0.2	0.25	60	20	33.3%	$8,760.44	-$847.65	-9.7%
0.25	0.3	66	24	36.4%	$12,842.61	-$1,127.36	-8.8%
0.3	0.4	81	26	32.1%	$16,176.20	-$575.40	-3.6%
0.4	0.6	69	21	30.4%	$14,105.07	$1,463.13	10.4%
0.6	3	44	13	29.5%	$10,037.47	$2,897.14	28.9%
		688	286	41.6%	$106,479.48	$5,528.75	5.2%