Perhaps the closest year where we saw the favourite galloping lengths ahead was in 1998 when The Offspring received more than twice as many votes for their song Pretty Fly (for a white guy) than Ben Lee who came in second spot. A great song, but one that was detested about a month later. It was all about timing that got the Offspring to first position, something that Gotye doesn’t have up his sleeve. Songs released later often do better, and Gotye’s Somebody that I used to know, was the second, but lead single of the album released in July.

That being said, Gotye did win the main J award just recently for the best Australian album, and it does seem hard for someone else to take the mantle in this years countdown.

So what other songs are a slight chance to knock Gotye off the top spot?

Boy and Bear with their song Feeding Line are probably the most likely to finish runners up, whilst Sparkadia’s Mary was often played on triple J. Art vs Science will no doubt round up the top 10 as per normal whilst the heavy dark electronic beats of Skrillex could do anything. They could finish top 5, or miss the top 100 altogether.

Speaking of top 5’s, no doubt closer to Australia day 2012, some of the books will open up top 5 and other betting options, so stay tuned for an update.

edit: Sportsbet have now realeased odds with Calvin Harris second favourite at 6.00 for feel so close, and boy and bear third favourite at 7.00 for feeding line. The full list of odds is available here, but I fear that the bet for the winner is almost a donation outside Gotye.

But if you want a really good list, then check this out. kBuck from bigfooty came up with his prediction list of the hottest 100 songs based on several variables like number of times played, you tube hits, previous bands record and his own expertise from listening constantly every day to triple j.

It’s an awesome list. The only thing I’m disappointed in is that there is no songs from English electro duo Lamb. Their album 5 was my album of the year, but unfortunately, and a little surprisingly was never played on the j’s.

Check out kBucks predictions below:

Gotye – Somebody that I use to know (feat. Kimbra) (1)
Boy and Bear – Feeding line (2)
Skrillex – First of the year (Equinox) (3)
Sparkadia – Mary (4)
Art vs Science – With thoughts (5)
Example – Changed the way you kiss me (6)
Florence and The Machine – What the water gave me (7)
Skrillex – Scary monsters and nice sprites (8)
Kimbra – Cameo lover (9)
Bon Iver – Calgary (10)
360 – Killer (11)
Calvin Harris – Feel so close (12)
Drapht – Bali party (13)
Calvin Harris – Bounce (feat. Kalis) (14)
Skream and Example – Shot yourself in the foot again (15)
Lana del Ray – Video games (16)
Kayne West and Jay z – Otis (17)
City and Colour – Natural disaster (top 10) (18)
Flight Facilities – Foreign language (feat. Jess) (19)
360 – Throw it away (feat. Josh Pyke) (20)
Architecture in Helsinki – Contact high (21)
The Wombats – Techno fan (22)
Emma Louise – Jungle (23)
Grouplove – Tongue tied (24)
The Grates – Turn me on (25)

Boy and Bear – Milk and sticks (26)
Benny Benassi ft. Gary Go – Cinema (Skrillex Remix) (27)
360 – Boys like you (feat. Gossling) (28)
Gotye – I feel better (29)
Ball Park Music – All I want is you (30)
Boy and Bear – Part time believer (31)
Seeker Lover Keeper – Even though I’m a woman (32)
Austra – Lose it (33)
Luke Million – Arnold (34)
The Wombats – 1996 (35)
Owl Eyes – Raiders (36)
James Blake – Limit to your love (37)
Grouplove – Itchin on a photograph (38)
City and Colour – Fragile bird (39)
Ellesquire – On the prowl (40)
Ball Park Music – It’s nice to be alive (41)
Nero – Me and you (42)
Art vs Science – A.I.M fire (43)
Cosmo Jarvis – Gay pirate (44)
Bluejuice – Act yr age (45)
Big Scary – Gladiator (46)
Drapht – Sing it (47)
Cosmo Jarvis – Sure as hell not Jesus (48)
Joe Goddard – Gabriel (feat. Valentina) (49)
Example – Stay awake (50)

Kimbra – Good intent (51)
Alex Metric – End of the world (feat. Charli XCX) (52)
Florence and The Machine – Shake it out (53)
Foster The People – Call it what you want (54)
Nero – Promises (55)
My Morning Jacket – Holding onto black metal (56)
Lykke Li – Rich kid blues (57)
The Jezabels – Trycolour (58)
New Navy – Zimbabwe (59)
Seeker Lover Keeper – Light all my lights (60)
Art vs Science – Higher (61)
Little Dragon – Ritual union (62)
Friendly Fires – Hawaiian air (63)
Aston Shuffle – Start again (64)
Mantra – Got me wrong (feat. Parvyn Kaur Singh) (65)
Joelistsics – Glorious feeling (66)
The Drums – Money (67)
The Jezabels – Rosebud (68)
M83 – Midnight city (69)
The Panics – Endless road (70)
Illy – Cigarettes (71)
Justice – Audio, video, disco (72)
Friendly Fires – Live those days tonight (73)
The Rapture – How deep is your love (74)
The Living End – The ending is just the beginning repeating (75)

Kele – What did I do (feat. Lucy Taylor) (76)
Oh Mercy – Stay please stay (77)
Kasabian – Days are forgotten (78)
Calling All Cars – Reptile (79)
Hunting Grounds – In colour (80)
The Strokes – Under the cover of darkness (81)
Hermitude – Speak of the devil (82)
Kimbra – Two way street (83)
Mr. Little Jeans – The suburbs (84)
Husky – History’s door (85)
Loon Lake – Bad to me (86)
Seeker Lover Keeper – Rely on me (87)
Katalyst – The clapping song (Feat. Coin Locker Kid) (88)
Radiohead – Lotus flower (89)
Eskimo Joe – Love is a drug (90)
Matt Corby – Brother (91)
Pnau – Solid ground (92)
SBTRK – Wildfire (93)
Papa vs Pretty – Darkest way (94)
Yuksek – Always on the run (95)
Vents – History of the world (96)
The Aston Shuffle – Won’t get lost (97)
Noah and The Whale – L.I.F.E.G.O.E.S.O.N. (98)
Snakadaktal – Chimera (99)
San Cisco – Awkward (100)

European Basketball

We have just recently added over 30 different European leagues, and every day we will be releasing probabilities for them all. From France to Greece, Lithuania to Spain, probabilities from all major countries in Europe will be given with suggested bets. A betting history has been provided, and very soon we will have the big EuroLeague and EuroCup included as well.

What’s more it’s all free! Head here to the European Basketball page for more information: http://www.sportpunter.com/sports/basketball/euro/

American College Basketball

It’s on again this year, and so far we have had 3 winning weeks. As our betting record shows, never before have we had a losing year for College Basketball. The predictions are given out at 3.30am and 9am AEDT every day, and are also completely free of charge. With over 7% ROI made from totals betting since 2003, and with a whole heap of bets every single day, it’s a sport that you should put in your portfolio. Why not! It’s free of charge!

Australian Basketball (NBL)

The Australian basketball season is well underway, but already the results have been nothing short of spectacular. Check them out here. So far this year we have made 8% ROI betting h2h, 13.7% ROI betting on the line and a staggering 42% ROI betting totals. In what I perceive to be a very inefficient market, there are huge opportunities to make money gambling on Sportpunter’s NBL model. Monthly passes are available on the NBL website as shown here.

NBA

And finally the NBA. Whilst it looked at though the season was all but done and dusted, now it seems we might start to get some games in about a months time. This works perfectly for us, because our records show that the first half of the season is where we profit the most. Now there is only a first half!

Whilst the model did end up 3.9% ROI up betting h2h and 5.4% ROI up betting totals last season, it was the first two months where the profits were reaped. After these two months we were up an amazing 8.7% and 12.3% ROI on h2h and totals betting respectively as shown here.

The NBA model, like the college basketball and Euro basketball is free of charge again this year, so make sure you follow the predictions.

Best of punting luck

Sportpunter.com

In fact the analysis as linked above shows that the average total score in the regular season is 0.47 goals lower than that years pre season. Shown in the table below are the average total scores for each regular season going back to 1989, and including the preseason total scores since 2005.

Season	#Matches	Av. Goals	Pre Season
1989	909	7.42
1990	839	7.05
1991	844	7.09
1992	1008	7.35
1993	1092	6.61
1994	690	6.14
1995	1176	6.44
1996	1066	5.97
1997	1066	5.43
1998	1107	5.41
1999	1148	5.62
2000	1230	5.64
2001	1230	5.36
2002	1230	5.44
2003	1241	5.27
2004	0
2005	1215	6.17	6.31
2006	1228	5.90	6.05
2007	1220	5.57	5.75
2008	1216	5.83	5.85
2009	1213	5.69	5.64
2010	1228	5.59	5.80
2011			5.33

Note that since 1989 the average number of goals scored per match has steadily been decreasing, halted by a small upswing after the year off in 2005 when rules were changed to allow for more goals. Still, since 2005 the total number of goals has been steadily decreasing in the regular season. Last years average of 5.59 was only marginally higher than the previous lowest at 5.57 set in 2007.

But more interesting is the preseason average for 2011. At at average of only 5.33 goals per match, it is clearly the lowest we have seen; 0.31 goals per game lower than the previous lowest of 5.64 in 2009.

If our previous analysis is anything to go by, we could be set for an average regular season total score of up to 0.47 goals less than the preseason, in other words, an average of only 4.86 goals per match.

Our successful models have adjusted for this, and we look forward to the start of the season, hopefully making as many more profits this year as we have in the past.

To sign up to the Sportpunter NHL model or to view the prices click here. Our previous betting history going back to 2005 is available here.

Ice Hockey – NHL

The ice hockey season is on us again, and NHL is set to start on October 6^th, in just three days time. Sportpunter will be giving out their predictions as per normal, and a full analysis of the NHL will appear on the website before the start of the season.

Last year we made 5.8% ROI from over 330 bets for the year, and our total record since 2005 stands strong at 6.3% ROI from over 2500 bets. Full betting history shown here. This year will be hopefully as good as the past years, and you can sign up for 2011/12 at this link.

Australian Basketball – NBL

Australian Basketball starts this Friday the 7^th of October with the blockbuster of Melbourne vs Sydney. Sportpunter are once again giving out predictions for NBL with the added advantage that line betting predictions will also be given. Last year we failed to calculate the new team Sydney, and their level as accurately as we liked. This saw us have a loss in the head to head market, but the totals market made a very substantial 9.4% ROI from 90 bets.

All in all, since 2006/07, we have made a staggering 11.5% ROI betting head to head, whilst totals has made an extremely impressive 8.7% ROI. Full betting history shown here. Numbers like this prove that whilst Australian Basketball might be a small sport, the market is largely inefficient, and as Sportpunter clients, you have the ability to make the most of it. Click on this link to subscribe or view the options.

Best ever week of NFL

Whilst I haven’t calculated the results from last nights NFL, last week was surely the best ever week that our predictions have ever had. We correctly won the line from 9 of 10 bets, including some massive overlays. Totals recorded a small win to add to that as well. Line betting so far this year has made 13.6% ROI, and totals betting has kept in with the long term trend, picking up 19% ROI. Betting history shown here.

Amazing signs for the NFL model, and the best news is that it is a free service. Click here to find all the details about how to get your free subscription to the NFL model.

Pick of the day

For those not following Sportpunter’s pick of the day, you should be. Whilst we only give out between 1 and 5 picks each week, the record so far has been at a 20% return on investment. That’s 20% per bet, not overall, which means that had you been following your bank size would be well over the 20% mark. Follow Sportpunter on facebook or twitter to get your free picks of the day.

AFL Wrap up

Well the cats are the premiers in 2011 and it’s been another big year betting at Sportpunter. Whilst it is interesting that head to head bets failed to make a profit, line betting went through the roof again with big profits. A 13.7% ROI profit was made betting the AFL which makes the last three years all achieving a profit of over 13% ROI each year, and five of the last 7 years, achieving a profit of over 10% ROI.

In fact in total the profits for line betting since 2005 are at 10.3% ROI from nearly 1000 bets. So big are the profits, that had you started with a $10,000 bank back in 2005 and bet a very conservative 1/10^th Kelly, only changing your bank size at the end of the year, you would now have over $50,000. Had you been at 1/5^th Kelly, then you would have turned your $10,000 to over $170,000.

Of course not everyone would have the same results due to different odds being matched, and some preferring not to bet on certain matches, but the results are there, and you can’t argue with the stats.

The AFL model will be back next year, bigger and better than ever.

Make sure you also check out the free soccer predictions, as well as the free golf predictions which are also making big profits: 9.1% ROI this year to date from over 1500 bets! The forum is there to chat amongst other Sportpunter friends about your betting and the picks.

Best of punting luck

Jonathan Lowe

www.sportpunter.com

Malthouse fears that free agency will make the issue worse, but Malthouse has also been a critic of the priority pick, a method which virtually landed Collingwood with AFL star Scott Pendlebury. Priority picks are put in place to stop teams constantly being at the bottom of the ladder and hence making the competition more even with less thrashings that Malthouse so fears.

But one of the reasons why Malthouse is so against the priority picks system is because of the situation were teams can tank games in order to acquire better picks for their future. Recently ex Melbourne coach Dean Bailey suggested that he did everything possible to help Melbourne obtain better players for the future, and that was by making sure that they didn’t win games late in the season.

I remember attending Hawthorn’s match against Richmond in Round 21 2005. If Hawthorn lost they would virtually obtain a priority pick for 2006. They were leading at half time by 31 points at half time, of which even me, as a Hawthorn supporter, was surprised and hoped that they would lose the match. A win in an already lost season was inconsequential. A loss and an extra priority pick surely for Hawthorn, must have been the priority.

Richmond thankfully went on to win the match in the dying seconds as they did against Melbourne in 2008. Whilst supporters should be happy for teams near the bottom to acquire some sort of priority picks to make the competition more competitive, having teams lose games on purpose to obtain them compromises the game.

Simply removing them, in my opinion, is not an option. The AFL should develop a method in which priority picks are still present, but are not an incentive for teams to lose on purpose. And this is what I intend to do here.

With 18 teams in the competition next year, this means that 10 teams will miss out on playing finals, of which all of them will receive a priority pick. But before you cry out loud in disapproval, the degree to which the priority pick is handed out is dependant on the position that they finish on the ladder.

A team that finishes last on the ladder will achieve an extra pick at pick number 5, whilst someone finishing second last will achieve an extra pick at pick number 10. Conversely the next lowest team at pick number 15, and then 20. The following is a table outlining what pick is to be given to teams based on their position on the ladder. It also shows the average number of games that a player picked at this point in the AFL draft has played since the year 2000

Pos	Priority Pick	Av. #Games
18	5	78
17	10	50
16	15	43
15	20	58
14	25	33
13	30	56
12	40	64
11	50	31
10	60	39
9	70	31

As you can see above, the pick number that a team receives as a priority pick increases the further a team is up the ladder. The average number of games that a player has played since the year 2000 also gives an indication about how important that pick is. Note the large average number of games at picks 30/40 due to father/sun picks that would normally not be included in the analysis.

Hence we have a situation where teams that finish near the bottom of the ladder are given an opportunity to improve their playing list the following year, however the difference between finishing last and second last (for example), or 13th compared to 12th is not enough to warrant a team to lose a match on purpose.

There could be an argument that teams finishing just out of the finals (positions 9th and 10th) don’t deserve any form of compensation, but draft picks 60th and 70th rarely provide long term star players and are quite often passed by teams.

Mick Malthouse, in my opinion, is only partially correct that the priority picks should be scrapped because it compromises the game, allowing teams to lose on purpose. I believe they should stay, but should be adjusted similar to that above so that teams near the bottom of the ladder can be compensated, whilst not giving too large a compensation so that teams have no intention to win matches.

Gold Coast haven’t proven as easy to beat so far this year, defeating Brisbane, who have yet to win a game and Port Adelaide, who are also swindling next to last on the ladder.

Gold Coast have yet to play many big teams, perhaps on purpose, with their only 2 games against finalists in 2010 being Carlton, who managed to just slip into the eight, and the Western Bulldogs who finished fourth.

So that being said, with an extra lower ladder dweller in the lineup, and 9 teams missing out on the finals, more wins for teams is necessary to make the finals.

Also, considering that we’ve had three draws this year, this puts an extra spanner in the works.

So how many games does a team need to make the top 8 and the top 4? The following is from a simulation with my AFL model:

As one can see from above, 11 wins for the year is not necessarily going to be enough to make the finals with only a 29% chance. 11 wins and a draw will get you just over half the time, whilst 12 and a half wins will get you there 94 times in 100.

To make the top4 and have the double chance, more wins are necessary. 14 wins might sneak you in, but at least 14.5 or 15 are realistically required. With Collingwood and Geelong on six wins from six starts, the probably only need to win 8 or 9 from their remaining 16 matches to make the top 4.

Shown below is how the model has gone based on round number as well as $Profit from that round until the end of season. The theory is that with such a short season and teams changing around, the model takes a little while to get used to the teams.

This table ignores the incredibly amazingly stupid second year the model was operating (2004) (as well as skipping 2003), because I believe that despite the amazing results (40%+ ROI for the year), it is an outlier.

Hence maximum profits can be shown to be betting from around rounds 10 to 11 for 5-6 weeks, where approx a 25-30% ROI has been made since 2005, and that is even being conservative.

Results for round 11 just gone have highlighted this. $2,039 was bet for a very nice profit of $625. This taking the yearly profit to $1,722 and 11.8% ROI.

The Super 15s model is completely free of charge, so make sure you jump on the end of season great results.

The free Super 15s predictions are available here

But what is interesting, is that ever since the abandoned year of 2004/2005, the average number of goals in playoffs more closely resembles the average goals scored per game in the home and away season.

In fact, so dramatic is the change, in that last year the average number of goals scored in the playoffs was greater than that of the regular season, 0.3 goals per game greater. It is hard to determine if this is a pattern that is justified or just simply random variation. I am tending towards the former.

Either way, punters should be cautious of this fact and should take care early about what scores are being scored in the playoffs as well as what lines the bookmakers are making.

It’s an interesting theory from Agassi who lost 6-1 6-4 7-6 against Chang. One has to question if he was losing on purpose then why take the final set to a tiebreak? Despite this, what is clear is that if tanking took place in this game, it was not for any financial reward. The possibility of Agassi making the finals and then perhaps winning the Australian Open would have had returned a substantial return as well as improved his ranking.

The confession made by Agassi 15 years ago, has no effect on the game of tennis played today. However are matches being tanked in similar circumstances today?

The answer is absolutely yes.

A casual tennis observer may not realise that a game is being tanked, but for a gambler it is as glaring as possible, and there is no more glaring example than the most recent Chela vs Schwank match held this week.  In case you didn’t know, both players are Argentinian, which Chela ranked 31 in the world compared to Schwank’s 104.

Chela has been in impressive form on the red clay up until this stage, only just losing the final of the Copa Claro in Buenos Aires the week before in three sets. For this round one match Chela started understandably favourite at 1.46 with Schwank at 2.93.

But these odds were remarkably different come start time. Chela has moved into a rank outsider at 3.50 before a ball has been served and bookmakers took the game off the market. PinnacleSports for example, took the game off the market when Chela’s price has only reached 2.24, and from then it continued to drift.

Was something afoot? Was Chela sporting an injury that made him unlikely to win the match? It seems not. Chela won the first set reasonably easily 6-3, claiming 60% of the points played. However despite winning the first set, his price was at 2.80 at betfair. It had come in from 3.50 before the start of play, but why should Chela, the higher ranked player, the player in form showing no signs of injury who has just won the first set still be seen as the rank outsider?

It didn’t stop there. Chela continued to dominate in the second set, winning a healthy 5-1 advantage. When serving for the set, Chela’s odds were only 1.90. What this means is despite Chela being up 6-3 5-1 and serving for the match, according to the odds, the game was a near 50-50 chance for either player.

Chela then saw a doctor and retired from the match citing injury. All bets on Schwank won.

It would have to be one of the most dubious matches in sport history, and whilst one can say that the match wasn’t tanked by Chela, one can easily say that there were many people out there who knew that Chela was not going to win the match. Hunderds of thousands of dollars could have been bet on Schwank and large profits made.

But it’s not the first time that such tanking has occurred in tennis. From my own betting, I believe there to be at least 5 matches a year where players lose on purpose. In April last year, Chela played Schwank and Schwank was fined US$1,000 for erratic and unusual play. Schwank said a back problem cause him to play a more than normal amount of drop shots and lobs. He even served a foot fault on match point.

It’s clear to me, although hard to prove, that these two Argentinians have one over the ATPTour.

Tanking occurs when the amount of money that one can gain via betting outweighs the potential gain from prize money for the tournament. Hence it more often occurs in early rounds in small tournaments out of the way of most of the worlds media.

A blight on the game it is indeed, and whilst the ATP has said that players could receive three year bans and then lifetime bans on repeat occurrence, their own anti-corruption rules, to this date, have only handed out petty small fines of which players and affiliates could well have already paid off by losing on purpose.