Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn, the perfect player based model example
You can’t get a better example than this. Western Bulldogs were coming into this match the big outsiders against the Hawks this Friday night at Ethiad Stadium. And why not? They had lost 11 games in a row at the end of the 2012 season, and Hawthorn, perceived as much to be the best team in the competition just lost the flag to the Swans.
So the bookies priced the dogs reasonably accurately (according to the (non-sportpunter) mugs that is) at 4.00 with the hawks strong favourites at 1.20. All the news was with the hawks. They were getting in some players back into their side.
Mitchell. Sewell. Lewis.
Big inclusions no doubt from their losses to Gold Coast and Brisbane the week before in the half game stoushes. But did anyone notice the outs? There were a whole list of them. Missing from the side were Rioli, Hodge, Birchall, Burgoyne, Lake, Shiels, Whitecross, Puopolo and a stack of others. Whilst the dogs? Well they realistically only had Higgins and Cooney out.
Cooney struggles to get on the park these days, and most western bulldogs fans would be generally surprised if he is in the side. Higgins is another injury prone player who last year didn’t really make a statement in the top 22 at the dogs. So basically the western bulldogs were at near full strength against a team who was missing about half their squad.
But don’t worry. Mitchell. Sewell. Lewis. All inclusions.
At least that’s what the press said.
The thing is, that the new Sportpunter player based model is so in tune with all the players, that it quite accurately rated the Western Bulldogs a 65% chance to win the game, and when they were ahead by three goals late in the first quarter, you could almost tell that the +27.5 line given to them was nearly bankable.
Did the bookies get it wrong? No. Every punter out there thought the hawks should destroy the dogs. But the sportpunter player based model got it right.
Dead right.
Despite the fact that the Sportputner AFL model has made over 13% ROI for the last 4 years straight including the biggest win ever last year……there’s only more reason to be more excited this year.
The Sportpunter AFL model has gone from being right to dead right.
And that’s a dead cert.
Check out the Sportpunter AFL betting history here: http://www.sportpunter.com/result-history/afl-results/
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