The American Baseball season (MLB) starts on Sunday the 5th of April and once again Sportpunter are providing predictions. Last year was the first year that our model went live and the results were fantastic, especially in totals betting.
Shown below is our analysis of the year that has gone, with totals betting first. Some people might want to analyse only the figures from when the model started giving predictions live (from 7/5/14), however I believe a greater reflection of how the model has gone will include up until the start of last year’s season, which is shown first.
| Odds | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.85 | 38 | $4,346.22 | -$475.96 | -11% |
| 1.85 | 1.9 | 170 | $19,790.57 | -$281.31 | -1% |
| 1.9 | 1.925 | 82 | $9,371.17 | $940.47 | 10% |
| 1.925 | 1.95 | 78 | $9,036.61 | $1,240.14 | 14% |
| 1.95 | 1.975 | 127 | $14,100.37 | $349.71 | 2% |
| 1.975 | 2 | 61 | $6,652.50 | $978.25 | 15% |
| 2 | 2.05 | 226 | $25,237.01 | $4,319.99 | 17% |
| 2.05 | 2.1 | 119 | $14,299.52 | $2,456.89 | 17% |
| 2.1 | 2.15 | 35 | $3,784.10 | $1,013.90 | 27% |
| 2.15 | 10 | 20 | $2,943.54 | $1,309.35 | 44% |
| 956 | $109,561.61 | $11,851.43 | 11% | ||
| Prob | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 0 | 0.5 | 8 | $569.17 | $150.75 | 26% |
| 0.5 | 0.525 | 73 | $4,797.13 | $1,203.11 | 25% |
| 0.525 | 0.5375 | 109 | $8,405.63 | $1,112.28 | 13% |
| 0.5375 | 0.55 | 125 | $10,945.58 | $2,825.51 | 26% |
| 0.55 | 0.56 | 134 | $12,743.37 | -$5.01 | 0% |
| 0.56 | 0.575 | 192 | $20,246.63 | $3,085.10 | 15% |
| 0.575 | 0.5875 | 108 | $13,259.85 | -$157.42 | -1% |
| 0.5875 | 0.6 | 88 | $13,355.95 | -$21.06 | 0% |
| 0.6 | 0.625 | 78 | $14,796.80 | $1,968.86 | 13% |
| 0.625 | 10 | 41 | $10,441.50 | $1,689.31 | 16% |
| 956 | $109,561.61 | $11,851.43 | 11% | ||
| Overlay | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 0 | 0.06 | 105 | $6,008.86 | $414.72 | 7% |
| 0.06 | 0.07 | 129 | $8,751.96 | -$46.79 | -1% |
| 0.07 | 0.08 | 99 | $7,958.78 | $1,303.07 | 16% |
| 0.08 | 0.09 | 86 | $7,627.48 | $434.50 | 6% |
| 0.09 | 0.1 | 74 | $7,288.95 | $466.52 | 6% |
| 0.1 | 0.125 | 181 | $20,935.62 | $2,640.70 | 13% |
| 0.125 | 0.15 | 96 | $13,382.22 | $1,218.35 | 9% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 118 | $21,012.41 | $3,268.94 | 16% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 47 | $10,402.29 | -$594.42 | -6% |
| 0.25 | 10 | 21 | $6,193.04 | $2,745.84 | 44% |
| 956 | $109,561.61 | $11,851.43 | 11% | ||
| Since 7/5/14 | |||||
| Odds | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 1 | 1.85 | 32 | $3,532.54 | -$418.37 | -12% |
| 1.85 | 1.9 | 143 | $16,522.32 | $949.41 | 6% |
| 1.9 | 1.925 | 61 | $6,720.22 | $1,569.42 | 23% |
| 1.925 | 1.95 | 46 | $5,198.74 | $552.03 | 11% |
| 1.95 | 1.975 | 115 | $12,808.17 | -$25.01 | 0% |
| 1.975 | 2 | 45 | $4,671.86 | $188.98 | 4% |
| 2 | 2.05 | 175 | $19,024.43 | $2,273.49 | 12% |
| 2.05 | 2.1 | 81 | $9,566.19 | $561.95 | 6% |
| 2.1 | 2.15 | 15 | $1,608.14 | -$40.97 | -3% |
| 2.15 | 10 | 3 | $341.33 | $251.85 | 74% |
| 716 | $79,993.94 | $5,862.78 | 7% | ||
| Prob | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 0 | 0.5 | 3 | $227.79 | $109.68 | 48% |
| 0.5 | 0.525 | 52 | $3,162.19 | $663.31 | 21% |
| 0.525 | 0.5375 | 81 | $5,981.78 | $11.68 | 0% |
| 0.5375 | 0.55 | 88 | $7,283.20 | $1,451.28 | 20% |
| 0.55 | 0.56 | 101 | $9,437.26 | -$786.77 | -8% |
| 0.56 | 0.575 | 153 | $16,018.51 | $1,622.57 | 10% |
| 0.575 | 0.5875 | 86 | $10,237.95 | -$633.76 | -6% |
| 0.5875 | 0.6 | 66 | $9,849.64 | $452.90 | 5% |
| 0.6 | 0.625 | 59 | $10,817.39 | $1,071.17 | 10% |
| 0.625 | 10 | 29 | $7,134.45 | $1,955.65 | 27% |
| 718 | $80,150.16 | $5,917.71 | 7.4% | ||
| Overlay | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 0 | 0.06 | 87 | $4,973.90 | $494.18 | 10% |
| 0.06 | 0.07 | 104 | $7,020.64 | -$373.20 | -5% |
| 0.07 | 0.08 | 77 | $6,221.14 | $1,053.23 | 17% |
| 0.08 | 0.09 | 67 | $6,011.34 | -$161.03 | -3% |
| 0.09 | 0.1 | 56 | $5,563.27 | -$262.71 | -5% |
| 0.1 | 0.125 | 128 | $14,952.39 | $2,022.61 | 14% |
| 0.125 | 0.15 | 74 | $10,357.82 | $427.28 | 4% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 86 | $15,577.51 | $1,680.80 | 11% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 29 | $6,474.05 | -$78.66 | -1% |
| 0.25 | 10 | 10 | $2,998.10 | $1,115.21 | 37% |
| 718 | $80,150.16 | $5,917.71 | 7% |
As you can see from above, the totals model has done extremely well. From 956 bets it has made 11% ROI which is massive considering the large amount of turnover possible. At first glance it would seem that betting on odds under 1.90 might not be profitable, but this could well be due to a small sample size, and I wouldn’t look too much into that.
What is promising is that larger overlays have resulted in larger profits which is a good indication that we are modelling the data well. The model seemed to go better early in the season than later.
H2H betting was different. Before we went live, the h2h model suffered badly in the opening month, however since we went live on 7/5/15, it made 3% ROI from 906 bets. It would seem betting on odds lower than 2.10 was no profitable however once again this was a small sample size.
| Odds | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.85 | 41 | $3,894.74 | -$599.95 | -15% |
| 1.85 | 2 | 104 | $9,357.18 | -$607.20 | -6% |
| 2 | 2.1 | 92 | $8,078.10 | -$610.50 | -8% |
| 2.1 | 2.2 | 143 | $12,130.31 | $1,151.81 | 9% |
| 2.2 | 2.3 | 155 | $13,152.82 | $863.55 | 7% |
| 2.3 | 2.4 | 147 | $12,260.37 | $643.19 | 5% |
| 2.4 | 2.5 | 130 | $10,654.11 | -$1,140.18 | -11% |
| 2.5 | 2.65 | 150 | $13,661.56 | -$377.43 | -3% |
| 2.65 | 2.85 | 100 | $9,707.37 | $1,383.73 | 14% |
| 2.85 | 10 | 72 | $7,143.16 | -$489.50 | -7% |
| 1134 | $100,039.72 | $217.52 | 0% | ||
| Prob | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 0 | 0.4 | 50 | $3,494.67 | -$600.78 | -17% |
| 0.4 | 0.425 | 97 | $6,680.18 | $982.44 | 15% |
| 0.425 | 0.45 | 132 | $9,617.66 | $1,176.73 | 12% |
| 0.45 | 0.475 | 233 | $19,591.29 | -$41.07 | 0% |
| 0.475 | 0.5 | 176 | $15,115.73 | -$709.75 | -5% |
| 0.5 | 0.525 | 191 | $18,241.20 | $52.92 | 0% |
| 0.525 | 0.55 | 93 | $9,176.16 | -$816.77 | -9% |
| 0.55 | 0.575 | 88 | $9,962.11 | $1,075.76 | 11% |
| 0.575 | 0.6 | 42 | $4,520.34 | $51.64 | 1% |
| 0.6 | 10 | 32 | $3,640.38 | -$953.60 | -26% |
| 1134 | $100,039.72 | $217.52 | 0% | ||
| Overlay | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 0 | 0.06 | 122 | $5,964.95 | $1,650.12 | 28% |
| 0.06 | 0.07 | 121 | $7,109.54 | $307.36 | 4% |
| 0.07 | 0.08 | 127 | $8,173.63 | -$290.06 | -4% |
| 0.08 | 0.09 | 92 | $6,414.14 | -$724.60 | -11% |
| 0.09 | 0.1 | 91 | $7,013.12 | $205.19 | 3% |
| 0.1 | 0.125 | 179 | $15,509.71 | -$175.23 | -1% |
| 0.125 | 0.15 | 123 | $12,575.62 | -$659.58 | -5% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 152 | $17,860.44 | $754.72 | 4% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 74 | $10,249.03 | -$1,795.17 | -18% |
| 0.25 | 10 | 53 | $9,169.54 | $944.77 | 10% |
| 1134 | $100,039.72 | $217.52 | 0% | ||
| Since 7/5/14 | |||||
| Odds | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 1 | 1.85 | 22 | $2,014.55 | -$305.31 | -15% |
| 1.85 | 2 | 75 | $6,473.51 | -$19.85 | 0% |
| 2 | 2.1 | 71 | $6,395.37 | -$794.22 | -12% |
| 2.1 | 2.2 | 121 | $10,493.00 | $1,528.31 | 15% |
| 2.2 | 2.3 | 129 | $11,277.59 | $1,063.72 | 9% |
| 2.3 | 2.4 | 122 | $10,174.08 | $1,650.08 | 16% |
| 2.4 | 2.5 | 106 | $9,003.94 | -$1,124.94 | -12% |
| 2.5 | 2.65 | 118 | $10,967.58 | -$1,637.87 | -15% |
| 2.65 | 2.85 | 86 | $8,518.00 | $1,506.63 | 18% |
| 2.85 | 10 | 56 | $5,742.07 | $662.63 | 12% |
| 906 | $81,059.69 | $2,529.18 | 3% | ||
| Prob | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 0 | 0.4 | 39 | $2,740.64 | -$183.70 | -7% |
| 0.4 | 0.425 | 76 | $5,240.23 | $571.61 | 11% |
| 0.425 | 0.45 | 105 | $7,923.16 | $449.15 | 6% |
| 0.45 | 0.475 | 195 | $16,756.90 | $819.86 | 5% |
| 0.475 | 0.5 | 144 | $12,101.96 | -$302.84 | -3% |
| 0.5 | 0.525 | 155 | $15,342.38 | $751.23 | 5% |
| 0.525 | 0.55 | 80 | $8,101.00 | -$690.64 | -9% |
| 0.55 | 0.575 | 73 | $8,556.03 | $1,478.52 | 17% |
| 0.575 | 0.6 | 24 | $2,520.99 | $211.01 | 8% |
| 0.6 | 10 | 16 | $1,840.21 | -$638.83 | -35% |
| 907 | $81,123.50 | $2,465.37 | 3% | ||
| Overlay | #Bets | $Bet | $Profit | %ROI | |
| 0 | 0.06 | 91 | $4,355.66 | $1,255.21 | 29% |
| 0.06 | 0.07 | 88 | $5,040.71 | $469.38 | 9% |
| 0.07 | 0.08 | 100 | $6,380.88 | -$620.86 | -10% |
| 0.08 | 0.09 | 73 | $5,044.15 | -$642.68 | -13% |
| 0.09 | 0.1 | 73 | $5,624.55 | $400.08 | 7% |
| 0.1 | 0.125 | 139 | $11,978.96 | $204.36 | 2% |
| 0.125 | 0.15 | 102 | $10,308.79 | -$52.01 | -1% |
| 0.15 | 0.2 | 131 | $15,423.75 | $1,122.89 | 7% |
| 0.2 | 0.25 | 60 | $8,378.27 | -$706.45 | -8% |
| 0.25 | 10 | 49 | $8,523.97 | $1,099.26 | 13% |
| 906 | $81,059.69 | $2,529.18 | 3% |
Please note that half way through the season, an upgrade of pitcher ratings was included so that pitcher ratings can change more quickly and dynamically for new pitchers. Preseason data was not taken into account, and it will be this year, so hopefully we should be able to see better h2h results, especially early on in the season.
Either way, it has been a standout year for Sportpunter’s MLB model, and I am very excited to get on board for when it starts this Sunday.
To sign up or view the betting history for MLB click here to the Sportpunter MLB website.
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