The NRL season is set to start this Thursday, and once again Sportpunter will be providing predictions every Thursday afternoon. What’s more, all the predictions will be free of charge for the entire year, so there is no reason why you shouldn’t be following them.
Over the years we have made a very handy 5% return on every bet, however the last few years, the results have been disappointing. Perhaps there is a reason for this, and the analysis we look into below will sort this out.
Shown below is our betting analysis for the past 2 years. Note the large amounts of bets on outsiders with odds above 2.00. Previously, this had been a gold mine with NRL betting, with so many outsiders getting up. But it seems that the tables have turned and the value on betting on the outsiders might not have the same value. Perhaps our long term Sportpunter clients have jumped on board and swayed the results. This could well be, because we have mentioned time and time again as shown here and here, about the value on the underdogs in the NRL.
However it seems as given from below, that the bias might not be there anymore. We have adjusted our models to account for this.
|
Odds |
#Bets |
#Wins |
%Wins |
$Bet |
$Profit |
%ROI |
|
|
1 |
1.5 |
4 |
4 |
100% |
$ 697.52 |
$ 330.63 |
47% |
|
1.5 |
1.75 |
21 |
14 |
67% |
$ 3,496.63 |
$ 160.72 |
5% |
|
1.75 |
2 |
24 |
13 |
54% |
$ 3,913.55 |
$ 66.89 |
2% |
|
2 |
2.5 |
63 |
22 |
35% |
$ 8,477.45 |
-$ 2,298.89 |
-27% |
|
2.5 |
3 |
79 |
28 |
35% |
$ 10,448.70 |
-$ 1,627.41 |
-16% |
|
3 |
4 |
54 |
15 |
28% |
$ 7,090.34 |
-$ 1,733.39 |
-24% |
|
4 |
20 |
26 |
7 |
27% |
$ 4,050.16 |
$ 1,198.64 |
30% |
|
271 |
103 |
38% |
$ 38,174.35 |
-$ 3,902.81 |
-10% |
As for when to bet, a lot of people ask if one should bet straight away at the start of the season or wait a few weeks to see how it goes. Similar to our analysis in Super 15s rugby union, we tested how the model did on every round of the year and the results are found below. With four of the first five weeks showing profits, there seems to be no logical reason to hold off betting the early rounds of the NRL.
So there we have it. Make sure you check out the free NRL predictions on the webpage, and also make sure you check out the AFL predictions as well. With NAB predictions happening now for the AFL, it’s also a great time to subscribe for season 2012. Click here for details.
|
Round |
$Bet |
$Profit |
%ROI |
|
1 |
$ 7,099.57 |
2256.6 |
31.8% |
|
2 |
$ 7,127.92 |
581.22 |
8.2% |
|
3 |
$ 6,195.45 |
-350.04 |
-5.6% |
|
4 |
$ 6,736.86 |
1831.12 |
27.2% |
|
5 |
$ 6,095.08 |
1330.54 |
21.8% |
|
6 |
$ 5,635.55 |
-1906.05 |
-33.8% |
|
7 |
$ 5,871.47 |
-1787.25 |
-30.4% |
|
8 |
$ 5,499.42 |
347.19 |
6.3% |
|
9 |
$ 3,263.03 |
516.43 |
15.8% |
|
10 |
$ 4,849.34 |
-570.02 |
-11.8% |
|
11 |
$ 5,134.69 |
-949.16 |
-18.5% |
|
12 |
$ 4,890.31 |
1106.5 |
22.6% |
|
13 |
$ 6,071.49 |
2264.44 |
37.3% |
|
14 |
$ 7,050.91 |
-1221.14 |
-17.3% |
|
15 |
$ 5,747.75 |
-826.49 |
-14.4% |
|
16 |
$ 6,589.32 |
3193.97 |
48.5% |
|
17 |
$ 6,289.23 |
-156.24 |
-2.5% |
|
18 |
$ 6,216.37 |
5058.63 |
81.4% |
|
19 |
$ 5,879.54 |
-1216.19 |
-20.7% |
|
20 |
$ 6,127.15 |
-1402.22 |
-22.9% |
|
21 |
$ 7,108.51 |
2120.51 |
29.8% |
|
22 |
$ 6,995.72 |
1336.26 |
19.1% |
|
23 |
$ 6,925.25 |
693.86 |
10.0% |
|
24 |
$ 8,157.11 |
-2505.2 |
-30.7% |
|
25 |
$ 8,590.07 |
-452.92 |
-5.3% |
|
26 |
$ 7,029.71 |
-1903.82 |
-27.1% |
|
27 |
$ 3,240.70 |
314.17 |
9.7% |
|
28 |
$ 1,693.92 |
567.33 |
33.5% |
|
29 |
$ 808.34 |
260.31 |
32.2% |
|
30 |
$ 340.93 |
-17.93 |
-5.3% |
|
$ 169,260.71 |
$ 8,514.41 |
5.0% |
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