Everyone knows that there is a favourite long shot bias in most sports. And despite this, many are very afraid to bet big on small priced favourites because of fears of losing way too much money. Money fluctuations are something that a gambler has to take his emotions out of. But is there value in betting the very short priced favourites?
Well we have looked at the women’s tennis – which is rife with short priced favourites – and seen how we would have gone betting on every female to win $100 based on their odds.
Shown below is a graph of how we would have gone each year betting on all females at odds of 1.25 and below and their corresponding %ROI values.
Note on the above graph, throughout 2004 to 2007, a positive %ROI was achieved. Simply by backing every short priced favourite irrespective of the match. In 2008 a small 0.25% loss was achieved, whilst in 2009 a loss of 1.5% was made. Overall a 0.1% ROI was made since 2004.
So is the last couple of years simply random variation or perhaps the market has got more efficient? Either way, betting favourites, even without a mathematically advanced model that would give you the edge, is advantageous.
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“Overall a 0.1% ROI was made since 2004.”
The graph doesn’t appear to support this statement.
In fact is seems to be showing a loss.
What am I missing?
“Overall a 0.1% ROI was made since 2004.”
The graph doesn’t appear to support this statement.
In fact it seems to be showing a loss.
What am I missing?
the graph is %ROI per year with year on the x axis. It is not accumulated, if that makes sense