Comments on: Over/Under bias in NHL Ice Hockey

By: Dwain Hespe

Dwain Hespe — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 19:41:57 +0000

I like how you explained this, make more sense to me now

By: sportpunter

sportpunter — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 21:32:57 +0000

yep a 2.25% ROI made betting under 5.5+ lines. I am checking other sports.

By: Hareeba

Hareeba — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 07:55:33 +0000

Quite extraordinary that it seems you can win simply backing all unders at 5.5+ lines!
Would be interesting to know if that is replicated in say NBA and MLB.

By: Hareeba

Hareeba — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 05:37:42 +0000

sorry Jon, hadn’t seen the previous Q and A when I posted that

By: Hareeba

Hareeba — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 05:36:23 +0000

At what point were the prices used in these tables recorded?

By: sportpunter

sportpunter — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 04:06:33 +0000

Official odds according to Pinnacle, usually about an hour before the start time

By: Martin

Martin — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 04:02:19 +0000

Jon, what prices are used?

By: sportpunter

sportpunter — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 03:03:49 +0000

Yes, just dont bet overs! ha, no. I dont think it will make too much difference. Because of the bias, and it is about 3%, (5% + 1%), this means that if we have a certain overlay on the overs, it may not actually exist because of the bias. Conversely, if we have a very small overlay on the unders or even not quite an overlay (not quite 5%), then the overlay might indeed be even more. Hareeba loves talking about the overs losses in the forum, I think that he especially would be interested in this article

By: Brett

Brett — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 02:51:44 +0000

Jon, will these findings have an effect on totals handicapping for NHL?

By: craig eyles

craig eyles — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 02:22:05 +0000

G’day
I never bet o/u in any sport for the reason that there’s too many “ifs” in the totals.
Spread betting is arguably more suitable in most cases of US sports apart from the +1.5 lines in baseball & ice hockey where the value is minimal.
The NHL -1.5 line is currently 215-470, but at over $2 odds for every 215 wins, it’s worth it.