Comments on: Tennis Analysis 2009 – Part 6 http://www.sportpunter.com/2009/12/tennis-analysis-2009-%e2%80%93-part-6/ Thu, 02 Feb 2012 09:35:17 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Bovina http://www.sportpunter.com/2009/12/tennis-analysis-2009-%e2%80%93-part-6/comment-page-1/#comment-152 Bovina Sat, 26 Dec 2009 22:32:12 +0000 http://www.sportpunter.com/?p=976#comment-152 Thanks for the input Jon. I will use a more defensive strategy in ATP this season in an effort to get back on the winning track. Only time will tell if its a wise decision or if I am missing out on some nice profits in the lower overlays. Thanks for the input Jon. I will use a more defensive strategy in ATP this season in an effort to get back on the winning track. Only time will tell if its a wise decision or if I am missing out on some nice profits in the lower overlays.

]]> By: sportpunter http://www.sportpunter.com/2009/12/tennis-analysis-2009-%e2%80%93-part-6/comment-page-1/#comment-150 sportpunter Sat, 26 Dec 2009 00:42:54 +0000 http://www.sportpunter.com/?p=976#comment-150 Also another thing. considering the federer factor, it makes little sence to me, why the minimum overlay for the 50-60% range should be greater than the 40-50% range. Hence the random variation between ranges Also another thing. considering the federer factor, it makes little sence to me, why the minimum overlay for the 50-60% range should be greater than the 40-50% range. Hence the random variation between ranges

]]> By: sportpunter http://www.sportpunter.com/2009/12/tennis-analysis-2009-%e2%80%93-part-6/comment-page-1/#comment-149 sportpunter Fri, 25 Dec 2009 11:44:37 +0000 http://www.sportpunter.com/?p=976#comment-149 yes for sure you make a good point, and it would probably be a godo wise decision to only bet 40% overlays plus in this braket. However it may not pan out that way. Look at the massive profits from 40-60% overlays, compared to 30-40% overlays. That is how much natural variation occurs. That said, I agree with you, that it might be better in the long term, to bet 40% min overlay for this bracket. At least you wont be wasting time betting bets that are break even or only marginally positive yes for sure you make a good point, and it would probably be a godo wise decision to only bet 40% overlays plus in this braket. However it may not pan out that way. Look at the massive profits from 40-60% overlays, compared to 30-40% overlays. That is how much natural variation occurs.

That said, I agree with you, that it might be better in the long term, to bet 40% min overlay for this bracket. At least you wont be wasting time betting bets that are break even or only marginally positive

]]> By: Bovina http://www.sportpunter.com/2009/12/tennis-analysis-2009-%e2%80%93-part-6/comment-page-1/#comment-148 Bovina Fri, 25 Dec 2009 09:54:20 +0000 http://www.sportpunter.com/?p=976#comment-148 If we look at the 50-60% probs then. Theres about a 1000 bets combined between 5 and 40% overlay with no real profit. So isn't that a good sample size and a fair call to say that we should only bet overlays greater than 40% in the 50-60% probs? Or am I missing something there? If we look at the 50-60% probs then. Theres about a 1000 bets combined between 5 and 40% overlay with no real profit. So isn’t that a good sample size and a fair call to say that we should only bet overlays greater than 40% in the 50-60% probs? Or am I missing something there?

]]> By: sportpunter http://www.sportpunter.com/2009/12/tennis-analysis-2009-%e2%80%93-part-6/comment-page-1/#comment-147 sportpunter Fri, 25 Dec 2009 09:20:36 +0000 http://www.sportpunter.com/?p=976#comment-147 its really hard to say bovina, probably around 500-1000 bets, which is of course very high. We can only approximate its really hard to say bovina, probably around 500-1000 bets, which is of course very high. We can only approximate

]]> By: Bovina http://www.sportpunter.com/2009/12/tennis-analysis-2009-%e2%80%93-part-6/comment-page-1/#comment-143 Bovina Thu, 24 Dec 2009 09:09:06 +0000 http://www.sportpunter.com/?p=976#comment-143 Thanks. I think its very interesting to see some numbers for the favourites as well. I am surprised by the 50-60% probs. It looks like all the real profit there is when the overlay is greater than 40%. I think I will change my betting strategy for that segment. When you talk about small sample size Jon, how many bets do you think are needed before a sample size is good and variation is not a factor? Thanks. I think its very interesting to see some numbers for the favourites as well. I am surprised by the 50-60% probs. It looks like all the real profit there is when the overlay is greater than 40%. I think I will change my betting strategy for that segment.

When you talk about small sample size Jon, how many bets do you think are needed before a sample size is good and variation is not a factor?

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